Arsenal – Stoke Preview

Foul-Smelling Orcs
Form: 8th, 3 W, 3 D, 2L, 6 GF, 8 GA, -2 GD, 12 pts.
Away Form: 1 W, 1D, 2L, 2 GF, 7 GA, 5 pts.
Last Meeting: Stoke 3-1 Arsenal (May 8, 2011)

Stoke. Pleasant fellows, eh? The Potters have the distinction of gaining a pretty venomous rivalry with Arsenal in the space of a few years. Following their promotion to the EPL in 2008, they beat us in a 2-1 win, courtesy of Delap’s throw ins. Since then, the relationship between the two teams has only grown even worse. First the obvious, such as the clear distinctions between Stoke’s ultra-direct, narrow, defensive yet efficient style and Arsenal’s…..well, Arsenal’s style, and the fact that Tony Pulis clearly doesn’t like Arsene Wenger. And of course, the matches between the two of us have been stressful, to say the least. The most memorable- and infamous- of these matches was on February 27, 2010, at the Brittania, where Ryan Shawcross decided that to be accepted by the Stoke fans, he had to draw blood. Or senselessly break bones- it didn’t really matter the motivation, what happened was that Shawcross, in a brainless challenge, broke Aaron Ramsey’s leg, fracturing Ramsey’s tibia and fibula. The horrific impact of this event led to Ramsey missing several months of his footballing development while he was recuperating, and he is still struggling to find his feet today, in his first full season since his injury. And last season, right in the middle of our Spring Collapse, they beat us pretty decisively in a 3-1 win. Stoke were ruthless, took their chances and capitalized on our mistakes. We…. we were in our collapse, what else needs to be said? The Stoke fans, fresh off from mocking Ramsey with their rousing and Emmy-winning rendition of “Ryan Shawcross… ‘ell breik it agin!”, started chanting poignant yells of “BORING! BORING!” towards our players. What better way to motivate ourselves for another winning performance, than playing against Stoke?

With that being said, Stoke are usually easier to beat at home. In fact, we have beat Stoke at the Emirates in all 3 of our meeting with them- a 4-1 win at the tail end of 2008-09, a 2-0 win in 2010, and a nervy 1-0 win last season- last season’s win being the most damaging, because we lost Cesc and Theo in that match and that was a pretty huge factor in our Spring Collapse later that year. But in general, we have an easier time dealing with Stoke at home, and that should mean we should eventually overcome the Potters and win tomorrow. Notice I said eventually.

Stoke have been impressive all season long, standing in 8th place at the moment and being 3 points behind the European spots. While they have only scored 6 goals this season, they have only conceded 8, an average of only 1 a game. They have already achieved some big results this season, notably a 0-0 draw with Chelsea on opening day and a 1-0 win over Liverpool. And they have been a sort of revelation in the Europa League, effortlessly strolling past the qualifiers and winning their way into the top of their group, ahead of experienced European sides such as Beskitas and Dynamo Kyiv. With that being said, their away form is less impressive, and one we should take advantage from.

We all know Stoke’s game plan. Defensive, men behind the ball, quick to tackle, narrow, and dominated by set plays. And by set plays, I mean mostly throw-ins. Rory Delap’s cannon arm has been dangerous for us to defend against, and Stoke have scored numerous goals, against us via his throw-ins in the past. That’s why we will have to be extra focused and concentrated to avoid the stupid mistakes and lapses that allow Stoke to score against us. A focused, energized, aggressive performance will be required from us tomorrow. Guys like Shawcross, Crouch, Jerome and Jones will be going for blood tomorrow, and we will have to be at our best to repel them.

The big question is who will be available for this match. Carl Jenkinson did his knee against Marseille on Wednesday, and is out for the next two weeks, ruling him out of tomorrow’s match. Either Djourou or Kos will play at RB tomorrow, and I hope it’s Djourou. At this point, Kos is too important to be played out of position. In traditional Arsenal fashion, there has been some slight delays in the return of our injured players. On Monday, Kieran Gibbs and Thomas Vermaelen were “two weeks out” As of Saturday, they are still two weeks out and are likely to miss the Chelsea game. Abou Diaby was supposed to be ready for the Carling Cup clash with Bolton in midweek, but apparently he’s now slightly behind Vermaelen on when he’ll return, meaning we’ll probably see him in the 3rd week of November in the year 2143. And of course, our long-termers, Wilshere and Sagna, are still out.

Based on the team news, here’s how I think Arsenal will lineup for the match:

Szczesny

Djourou   Mertesacker  Koscielny   Santos

Song     Ramsey

Gervinho   Arteta   Arshavin

van Persie

Subs: Fabianski, Miquel, Rosicky, Benayoun, Walcott, Park, AOC

It seems our period of relative injury-free selection is coming to an end. With Sagna, Jenks, TV5, and Gibbs out, the defense we’ll put out there is pretty much the only first-team, fit defenders remaining. The question remains over who will take the backup defender spot- one of Squillaci, Miquel, or for an outsider bet, Angha. The only reason I’m even mentioning Angha is because he is capable of playing at RB, having played at that spot numerous times before for the Arsenal Reserves and U-18s. Squillaci and Miquel are fit for the first time in 45 years, though, so it’s much more likely that we’ll see one of them on the bench tomorrow- I’m betting on the young Spaniard, because we all know what Squillaci is capable of (hint: not much).

In midfield, Song and Arteta are shoo-ins, but I think it’s going to be close between choosing Rosicky or Ramsey for the start. Yes, Rosicky was decent in the last two games, but it’s prudent to rotate our players, especially injury-prone ones such as Rosicky, every now and then to prevent little knocks, burnout, and fatigue. Ramsey came on and scored a goal, and hopefully that will spur him to continue to progress in his game and performances. And I bet Aaron will step onto the pitch tomorrow with something to prove on his mind, considering his history with Stoke.

Up front, Gervinho came on and was our liveliest player on the pitch against Marseille, having a hand on the late winner. Only a rich man would bet on Walcott starting over the Ivorian. On the other wing, it will come down to either Arshavin or Walcott. Do AOC and Park deserve to get a look in and be given (in AOC’s case, a well-deserved) chance? Absolutely. Will Wenger take the risk and start them over the erratic Walcott or the volatile Arshavin? Not a chance. I say the little Russian gets the start, and Walcott comes on as an impact sub if things go awry- his abject performance on Wednesday means he doesn’t deserve to start, and there is little chance Walcott will be truly effective against such a narrow team like Stoke.

van Persie has been the life and soul of this team lately, but even the greatest get tired once in a while. Indeed, Wenger has admitted that at one point he will have to bench our captain. However, tomorrow’s match is a pretty big game, and resting van Persie, who’s in the form of his life at the moment, would be foolish. The Carling Cup game against Bolton, in midweek, will be a much more appropriate opportunity to bench our captain, keeping him refreshed and healthy enough to take on Chelsea next weekend.

This will probably be an edgy, low-scoring affair. Stoke are much more defensive away from home, and I think they’ll be going for the draw. 1 goal from us should do it, but considering this is Arsenal, we should be going for 2. Or perhaps 3. 6 would be nice, just to be safe. A win would catapult us above the likes of Aston Villa, Norwich, and Stoke themselves, and would finally put us in the sights of the European spots. Let’s hope the players will keep the momentum going.

Come on Arsenal!

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Category: Fixtures, Premiership, Preview