Celtic Preview

By: Martin | August 26th, 2009

Today is the return leg against Celtic. The bottom line in this game is that we’ve already got one foot in the group stages, and simply need to do a professional job today to finish them off.

It is tempting, with the United game coming up this weekend, to think that this is a good chance for squad rotation. And it would take something pretty spectacular on Celtic’s part for us not to go through at this point. But it would represent a huge gamble, with the group stages and all the attendant money and prestige on the line. Don’t forget, too, that Celtic were a bit unlucky with both goals in Glasgow–on another day, it could have pretty easily been a 0-0 draw. So this is not some pushover team–they’ve shown they’re capable of playing us tough. They’re also a team that has proven that they can win crucial European road wins, since they got this far by rebounding from a 1-0 loss at home to beat Dinamo Moscow 2-0 in the Russian capital. I do suspect we’ll see a bit of rotation, but by and large I suspect it’ll look a lot like the team that played in Glasgow.

And we really do have a huge advantage. The Moscow result notwithstanding, Celtic’s recent road record in Europe is pretty dire. In last year’s group stage, they lost 2-1, 3-0, and 1-0 to Aalborg, Manchester United, and Villareal. In 2007-2008, they drew 1-1 away to Spartak Moscow, and then lost 1-0, 1-0, and 2-0 to Benfica, Milan, and Shakhtar Donetsk. Over the span of two years in Europe, then, they went 0-1-6 in 7 road games, scoring a total of 2 goals. History would suggest that they will (a) not be able to come into the Emirates and get a win; and (b) not be able to score 2 goals against a defense that’s playing very well at the moment. Still, Tony Mowbray’s style is more wide open and conducive to attacking than his predecessor’s, and they’ll be playing loose and pressure-free, since they have nothing to lose. If they grab an early goal, things could get interesting.

As I said, I think we’ll see basically a first-team squad, although I do think we’ll see some squad rotation. Here’s my best guess:

Almunia

Sagna-Gallas-Vermaelen-Clichy

Denilson-Song-Diaby

Eduardo-Bendtner-Arshavin

Hopefully we’ll come out and take care of business. Celtic will likely be in all-out attack mode, which means they’ll be vulnerable at the back. If we can hit them on a counter and grab the first goal, I would have to think that would pretty much be game, set, and match. Our task will be made a bit easier by the absence of their solid holding midfielder, Landry N’Guemo, who picked up too many yellows and is suspended for this match. And hopefully Arsene has been holding off on bringing in a couple more signings until we’re guaranteed of the group stage revenue. So hopefully after today we might start to see some action on the transfer front. I’ll be DVRing the game while I’m at work (work is so stupid…), but I’ll try to go ahead and post a game thread post when lineups are announced so those of you watching it live can chat about it.

Come on Arsenal.