Fulham – Arsenal Preview

By: Homey | January 1st, 2012

I hope everyone had a happy and safe New Year celebration. It seems odd to be writing a preview one day after a recap, but so it goes. Our boys are back in action tomorrow, taking on Fulham at Craven Cottage. Our opponents aren’t having the best of seasons, currently sitting in 13th place with 20 points, and a -5 goal differential (which is also the same record as 14th place Swansea). Their Europa League campaign ended with a heartbreaking crash and burn against Odense a few weeks back. In league play, they registered 1-1 draws against Norwich and Chelsea in their last two, but before that were thrashed by five goals at home against Man Utd.
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One of the cool things about the second half of the league campaign is that things get easier for bloggers. Instead of doing a full preview of the opposing team, I can basically just point you to the preview and recap of the last match, which was played fairly recently (November 26). If you’ll recall from that day, Vermaelen had a pretty bad own goal, but then got a measure of redemption with a late goal. But a winning goal was never to come, and things ended 1-1.

Just yesterday, Arsenal managed a 1-0 win over QPR, which vaulted the Gunners into 4th place. Along with that came a couple of terrific results, with Spurs dropping two points and Chelsea dropping all three at home. So as the new year begins, things are looking fairly promising. (And yes, I know both Manchesters lost this weekend as well, but we’re not catching either of them, so please move along people.) RvP even dropped a few hints about extending his stay at Arsenal. However, the down note is Vermaelen’s calf strain, which looks to put him out about three weeks. Our back line could hardly afford to take another hit, but that’s exactly what happened. Our previously-injured players in the back are still not back to health, so that means dipping further into our reserves. Wenger said after the QPR game that he’d get another left back, and “possibly at midnight” of the start of the January transfer window. But of course that’s of no help against Fulham right now.

Lineups for both sides are going to be a real question mark. Looking first at Fulham, their starting lineup against Norwich was exactly the same one used on December 26 against Chelsea. So, presumably, that would be their most preferred lineup at the moment. With this game falling two days later, I’m sure they’ll be forced to rotate a bit away from their best lineup. It’s possible that Simon Davies could return to their lineup, but I would also expect to see several players that are normally reserves. Perhaps Martin Jol was thinking that they should do their best to get three points against Norwich, and then just hope for the best against the much-stronger Arsenal. Obviously it didn’t quite work out that way, but it would have been a reasonable thought nonetheless. It would be nice if they gave their goal and assist leader Clint Dempsey a break. Yes, the same Clint Dempsey from my home state of Texas! (Couldn’t resist.)

Turning now to the Arsenal lineup, we pretty much fielded our best players against QPR. Arguably, Wenger should have seen a home date with QPR as the chance to rest some players, with an eye toward putting out a stronger lineup away to Fulham. But it’s hard to second-guess a win, so it’s good we at least got that. Anyway, I feel sure we’ll see a heavy dose of rotation. The only problem is, there’s virtually no way the guys at the back can get a break this time. So we’re almost assured of seeing Djourou, Mertesacker, and Koscielny.

Last season during the holiday scheduling crunch, Arsenal registered a terrific 3-1 over Chelsea on December 27 that had everyone pretty excited around these parts. That joy quickly evaporated two days later with a 2-2 draw against lowly Wigan. In that match, Wenger rested quite a few of the top players, and Arsenal allowed the second Wigan goal in the 81st minute by virtue of an own goal by Squillaci. So to be perfectly honest, with the schedule the way it is, I’m think the chances are about 50/50 that we fail to get the full three points in this one, regardless of what you think about Fulham this season.

OK, here’s my best guess at a lineup:

Wojo

Djourou Mertesacker Koscielny Miquel

Coquelin

Benayoun Rosicky

AOC Gervinho

Chamakh

Bench: Almunia, Squillaci, Song, Walcott, Arshavin, RvP, Park

Starting in the back, I suppose Squillaci could get the start ahead of either Mertesacker or Kos, or perhaps Kos could start at RB and Djourou could go to the bench. But my guess is that Wenger considers a tired version of those players better than a rested version of Squillaci. At left back, there’s a strong argument for Coquelin after his last performance. However, if Wenger chooses to give Song a break, then Miquel makes more sense at LB. Plus it would seem to give us more flexibility to move players around with the lineup I proposed. Coquelin could replace either fullback, and Song could enter for Coquelin. Or Song/Squillaci could replace a center back. So we’ll go with that for now. Moving forward, I think Benayoun will start for sure, and I’m guessing Rosicky will as well. I feel pretty sure AOC will get the start, and Gervinho should be rested enough to start. I’d love to insert Park ahead of Chamakh up front, but that’s pretty clearly not how Wenger sees it at the moment. On the bench, I think Wenger will leave himself the option of inserting RvP at about the 65th minute if a goal is still needed. But I’ll guess that Arteta and Ramsey are given deserved days off, and are left off the bench entirely.

Here in the U.S., this one will be on Fox Soccer Channel, so I’ll get to watch without searching for an online stream. I’m sure someone will be along to set up a live blog as well. See y’all then.

Come on, Arsenal.

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So the Lord spoke to the fish, and it vomited Jonah onto dry land. Jonah 2:10.

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Category: Fulham, Premiership, Preview

« Arsenal 1 – 0 QPR: Like Wolves, But With Three Points To Show | Home | Liveblog! Fulham – Arsenal »

Tfyoung

I'd love to see us go after Stephen Ireland for the attacking midfield position. He's a nut but he's exactly the player we need and the price might be right.
Will

Read the first few sentences, saw "And yes, I know both Manchesters lost this weekend as well, but we’re not catching either of them, so please move along people," and instantly knew who wrote this article... We'll see about that yet Homey! Anything can happen in this league (hopefully not a loss to Fulham, though).
Patoux21

The only slight chance Arsenal will be in the title race is the quick recovery of our starters ie Wilshere, Sagna, Verm, Santos and Diaby alongside some big investment ie buying at least 2 top players ideally Podolski and Hazard but unfortunately we all know it's pure science-fiction even though the club has money to spend
Will

That would be logical, but I'm going off the unpredictability of the league here. Not saying it's likely.
Patoux21

It's more likely Arsenal will collapse during the second half of the season which is something very familiar in the last few years. Unless some of the above I mnetion occurs I am not very optimisitic maybe 4th at best
Homey_Mills

Sorry to nitpick, but the league isn't really unpredictable. There have been only two clubs win the title over the last seven years. Only three different clubs have won since Blackburn (!) won it in 1995-96.
Yes, from week to week, there can be odd results. But over the course of a season, or half a season in this case, the top teams find a way to win the league title.
And can anyone really look at our roster, as compared with the Manchesters, and declare it to be better?
Gunnerson

Well, we are one of the three to have won in the last 16, so that should play in our favor. And if the best roster wins this year, then a team apart from the "winning three" would have won. I not sure whats the point of me saying this because I totally agree, title - not gonna happen.
Homey_Mills

A couple of points here. First, both Manchesters are better teams than Arsenal. They just are. They're 9 points ahead of us for a reason. Second, 9 points with half a season to go is a HUGE advantage. Third, even if one of them goes into the tank, we really would have to have BOTH teams, which are better than us in the first place, comepletely tank the second half of the season. It's positively NOT going to happen. We're NOT winning the league this season. We'd have better luck trying to play pick-up-sticks with our buttcheeks. (Movie quote.)
Zamil_m10

were 9 points behind but theres still like 56 to play for
Darren_V

Remember back in 2008 when Arsenal were rolling all season long and were looking good for the title until Eduardo got injured and Arsenal went into a slump to end in third place, rather than the 1st place that they were looking like very good value for?

No? I do.

Not saying it will happen, or it's very likely, because it's clearly hugely unlikely. But it certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility like you are stating here.
Homey_Mills

When "Arsenal were rolling all season long," the biggest lead was 5 points, not 9. The other key difference that I keep trying to emphasize is that we're chasing TWO teams, not one. So unlike when United overtook us in 2008, we need TWO teams to fall apart down the stretch. And it also just happens that both are clearly better and deeper. C'mon people... focus on real things here, like trying to make a run in the FA Cup, beating AC Milan, and keeping our Champions League spot for next year.
Gunnerson

2002/03 Season. Arsenal led the league by 8 in early March. United won the title.
Homey_Mills

Ok, good example. You could also point to the Arsenal comeback in 97-98. However, look again at Man Utd that year. They had won the league title 3 of the prior 4 seasons, so they had a superb team that was used to winning things. But the big thing was that they only had to overtake ONE team, not TWO. And they had the roster to do it. We have to overtake TWO teams that have better rosters of players. So yes, mathematically possible, but not anything to waste time worrying about.
Darren_V

I think you misunderstand completely what my point is.
Obviously it's folly to think Arsenal are competing for the title and the chances are extremely low and barely worth noting.

However, there is still a mathetimatical possibility that Arsenal could win the title, however unrealistic it is.

I'm merely arguing "It's positively NOT going to happen." because the math says it's still possible, not because I'm believing it's going to happen. So C'mon, read what I say, not what you think I infer.
Homey_Mills

Yes, I know what you wrote. I was just trying to emphasize the differences in your comparison. So yes, it's mathematically possible to win the league title this year. That's true for Aston Villa and Newcastle as well. My point is that since it's not going to happen, why should we be getting our hopes up over something that's about equal to winning the lottery?
Will

Well, Homey, Brenton pretty much said what I had to say. But that 9 point difference could be 5 points if not for weird draws at Fulham and Wolves. Of course, there is a French saying, "avec des si's, on mettrait Paris on bouteille"... (with if's and but's, we could put Paris in a bottle). But my point is, I'm not so sure the gulf in class is as great as you think: in United's case, we are better for now in the striker department, and our midfields are equally "good" if not "great." With Wilshere returning I think we'll be on level pecking. Defence could be evenly split depending on injuries, but I think if Vidic is still out and Sagna and Jenks and another defender return, and we get a fullback on loan (which I think we will), we could actually be better. You can never write off United, though. Under the tactics and stewardship of Fergie, I think they present a bigger challenge to overcome than their neighbours.. City obviously have the strongest squad but their tactics and consistency are poor. I'd say the chances of United leapfrogging them eventually are something like 65/35 as long as Mancini's in charge. I still think we have a chance, if only a small one. We only need to beat the big teams at home, and if Sunderland and Blackburn can do it, than so can we.
Homey_Mills

Ok, I'll respond one more time, and then I'll refrain from beating my head against a wall. Let's look at math for a moment. What's the best we could possibly do for the last 19 games of the season (keeping in mind we lost 5 of our first 19)? Let's say it's 14 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss. That would be terrific form. That's 46 points, and would give us 82 for the season. Well, the Manchesters already have 45 each. Given the gulf in goal differential, they'd BOTH have to finish with 81 or fewer. So they'd both have to net the same number of points that Arsenal just got in their first half of the season. Thus, BOTH Manchesters would have to have a record of something like 11 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses to finish the season. So that, combined with a tremendous run of form by Arsenal, would be enough. Simply put, it's out of reach. Sheesh people. Where is Martin to back me up on this?
LachlanS

I am not a gambling man, but I would be willing to put a year's earnings (which is not that much really, given that I am a university student) on Arsenal not winning. I completely agree with Homey that there is basically no chance that both Manchester teams collapse to the point that we can pass both of them. In addition, we would also have to rely on Tottenham failing.

We have seen this week that these teams are nowhere near invincible, but the fact remains that while they may drop silly points, we have been doing the exact same thing a bit this season and chances are we will keep doing the same, most likely to a greater extent than the league leaders.
Will

Hmm, those are hard stats to argue with. Well, I always understood it's very unlikely. Maybe I made it sound like I thought it could happen if we just performed better, but I know it would take same really bad form from the Manc's. But you're right, I didn't realise it was that bad. But really what I meant was that I don't want to rule anything out until it's mathematically impossible. Since we're not the players, we can dream for the best possible outcome, right?
Zamil_m10

Henry > Chamakh

Isn't he eligible to play now?

If not wheres Benik Afobe??? i read Barca invited him to train with them sometime ago (how did i miss that? *facepalm*) concrete proof the boy must be prettty damn good
Darren_V

I believe that was either last year or the year before that when Barca were after him and he had not yet signed his professional contract with Arsenal.

As for where he has been, he has been out injured with a hip problem that he incurred while playing with the reserves. He has been running for about 2,3 weeks now according to his twitter account, so like Homey says, perhaps we see him v Leeds. Which I would love b/c I think he is a very good player and shows promise.

It would be like a new signing!
ian

Apparently Barca was also after Chuks Aneke. theyre supposed to have amazing chemistry together
Homey_Mills

I think I read that he will be ready to go for the FA Cup next week. I expect him to probably come off the bench in that one.
Will

Not sure; official website says we're still negotiating things, but there are pictures of him in the jersey and everything. Done deal, but not officially.
brenton

Afobe is 18 and signed a professional contract with us, so Barca can invite him to have tea with Alice and the Mad Hatter for all we care.
lika sum boooooooooooo deee

'So the Lord spoke to the fish, and it vomited Jonah onto dry land. Jonah 2:10.' i don't know if you already know this or not but the Quran -the religious scripture of Islam- has this same story in it. Weird to post a comment like this on an arsenal blog but i just wanted to express my delight on how akin our religions are and just as an FYI aswell :D
brenton

We let Homey publish his Bible quotes in return for endlessly slagging him about his anti-Wenger stance. And often they're quite interesting. Personally I think Jonah was a jackass who fell out of his fishing boat and made up a story to cover his ass, but hey, we come in all shapes and sizes. One planet, one people, and all that.
satan

What makes you think Wenger is going to give AOC some playing time, let alone a start?
Homey_Mills

A combination of the one day of rest for the regular wingers, the fact that AOC has been on the bench lately, the fact that Wenger has promised him more playing time in the near future, and the fact that I read it in a headline somewhere as I was getting ready for this blog. I could be wrong, but I don't see how it's so far fetched to predict it.
Soccer_ronaldo22

AOC didn't even make the bench.
Homey_Mills

I'm an idiot. What can I say.
Kas123

U may be right Homey, But I think Arshavin will get the start based on his performance against QPR over AOC, though I do advocate AOC getting more playing time.
LachlanS

It makes sense that Gerv and AOC get the start, because our other two wingers started two days ago and can be swapped in. Walcott and Arshavin can still act as super subs.