Not to disrespect them, but Standard really shouldn’t pose much of a problem for us. Of course, they grabbed 2 quick goals against us at home and gave us a real scare, but we managed to come back for the 3-2 win. We’re much tougher at the Emirates, though. They’re currently 4th in the Belgian table, and missing talisman Steven Defour. It would be a shock if we didn’t come away from this fixture with a win.

It’s also a good opportunity for Wenger to rotate the squad and rest some players. I’m not sure if the international break was solely to blame, but it did seem like a lot of players looked tired and flat on Saturday. And with Chelsea coming up on Sunday, a lot of the players could probably use a few days to rest and refocus. My sense is that we’ll see a lot of younger players get some action tomorrow. Having said that, trying to predict a lineup is to some degree an exercise in futility. But here’s my best guess:

Almunia

Eboue-Gallas-Vermaelen-Gibbs

Fabregas-Denilson-Ramsey

Walcott-Eduardo-Vela

But Senderos, Rosicky, Song, Nasri, Silvestre, Wilshere, Arshavin, Mannone, or Traore could also be involved in the starting XI, and I wouldn’t be surprised.

In other news, Fabregas has responded to another upsurge in speculation that he might depart for Barcelona with characteristic awesomeness:

“It does not affect me at all because it’s been going for years. To be honest I just don’t think about it, I don’t want to and I don’t think I should because I’m at a great club and in a great team. I’m very happy where I am and there is very long season in front of us. The last thing I want to do is get disconnected from what I have to do which is to play football for my team and for the Club that pays me. I’m really looking forward to a great season with Arsenal.

When asked whether he thought he might stay at Arsenal for his entire career, El Capitan responded: “Why not? I have never thought about it. I’m only 22. You never know what your career will bring but why not? I’m in my seventh season now and I’m really happy, better than ever.”

Te amo, Cesc. Te amo. It must be so tiresome for him to have to deal with these constant rumors, and is, more than anything, unfair to him, because he’s been the consummate professional and team player throughout his time with the club, and has never given the slightest outward indication that he’s unhappy at the club or looking to leave.

In other news, Stan Kroenke bought 10 more shares of Arsenal stock, bringing him right to the brink of the 30 percent that would require him to make a takeover bid. I still have no idea what’s going on, but I wish he’d either make his intentions clear one way or the other so we’d know what the future of the club’s ownership would be.

Anyway, that’s it–here’s to 3 points and winning the group tomorrow. Come on Arsenal.

Position: 8th, 5-2-5 (17 points, +1 goal differential)

Recent Form: DWLDL

Home Form: 4-1-1

Last Meeting: Arsenal 0-Sunderland 0 (2/21/09)

Back in action at the Stadium of Light tomorrow, for what I expect to be a very tricky match. Seriously–this match scares the hell out of me. For one thing, it’s a road match against a top half side with a very good home record–those matches are always tough, no matter what. But throw in the fact that nearly half our first team is injured, and that everyone is already talking about next weekend’s matchup with Chelsea, and this has all the makings of an Arsenal stumble. I dearly hope I’m wrong.

Sunderland is a quality side, much improved from last season. This is due mainly to the hire of Steve Bruce as manager–Bruce did wonders at Wigan, bringing in quality bargain buys like Valencia and Palacios, as well as youngsters like Lee Cattermole, who followed the gaffer north to Sunderland. The club also gave him a bit of money to play with over the summer, and he appears to have spent it wisely–his main transfers were Darren Bent, who has already shown himself to be a bargain (honestly–compare his production with strikers who were much more costly, like Berbatov, Santa Cruz, and Pavlyuchenko); Lorik Cana, who was immediately appointed captain and has become a mainstay in their midfield; and the aforementioned Cattermole, one of the more promising young midfielders in the Premiership.

Sunderland still plays a very English brand of football–disciplined, tight at the back, and relying a lot on toughness and physicality. But they have opened up a bit under Bruce, who has brought in some skilled players and installed a little bit of an attacking mentality in the club, which is in stark contrast to the way Sunderland played under Roy Keane and Ricky Sbragia the last couple of seasons. And even then, they managed a draw in both their games against us last season.

You wouldn’t necessarily characterize Sunderland as an explosive team per se, but they do have two quality strikers who complement each other well in Darren Bent and Kenwyne Jones, who have combined for 13 goals this season. Their midfield is full of battlers like Steed Malbranque and Lorik Cana, and their backline is anchored by Anton Ferdinand and Michael Turner. We catch a little bit of a break tomorrow, though, as starting keeper Craig Gordon and Cattermole are both out injured, and Kenwyne Jones and Turner are both out on suspensions–in particular, Jones is exactly the kind of bruising physical striker that has given us problems in the past, too.

Their home record is very good–they’ve only lost once, to Chelsea, in 6 matches at the Stadium of Light. In their two best results of the season, they beat Liverpool at home and drew at Old Trafford in a match they very easily could have won. I watched that match in its entirety, and I can definitively say that this is a team that will make us pay if we expect to just show up and win. That happened with alarming frequency last season, but with the exception of the West Ham game, we’ve so far been able to avoid that pitfall this season. But hopefully the team isn’t suffering from too much of an international hangover and comes out focused and motivated.

In squad news, obviously the injuries are a big concern. van Persie is out for a while, and while Gibbs’s injury is apparently minor and he may be able to play on Tuesday against Standard Liege, he is out tomorrow. In better news, Theo Walcott is back in the squad–I still doubt he’ll start, but don’t be surprised to see him come on as a late substitute. Denilson, Traore, Wilshere, and Vela are also supposedly going to be available, although I don’t see any of them starting unless Wenger is really convinced that they are match fit–the midweek Champions League fixture would be a much better chance for them all to get a run out. It will also be interesting to see how those who played full matches on Wednesday fare. Fabregas and Arshavin played the entire match, as did Eboue, and Sagna and Gallas both played a full 120 minutes against Ireland. I’m sure there’s others I’m forgetting, too. For example, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sagna get a breather this game.

Lineup:

Almunia

Eboue-Gallas-Vermaelen-Silvestre

Fabregas-Song-Nasri

Rosicky-Eduardo-Arshavin

(UPDATE: So it sounds like Wenger is thinking that Vela will start, and that Arshavin may not play because of the fatigue from internationals. Honestly, I have no idea what to expect in terms of a starting XI tomorrow.)

But given those tired from internationals and those returning from injuries, it wouldn’t surprise me if our lineup was significantly different from that. Between injuries and fatigue, the Emirates is basically a field hospital right now, and Wenger’s just going to have to check with the players and trainers on an individual basis to see who’s really ready to play.

This is a tough match, and given all the surrounding circumstances (injuries, internationals, etc.), it’s the kind of match that last year’s club would have either lost or drawn. But these are exactly the kind of matches a team has to be able to win if it’s a serious title contender. Tomorrow could reveal a lot about what kind of team this Arsenal squad is. A win keeps us clear of United and keeps the pressure on Chelsea going into the the showdown at the Emirates a week from Sunday. Let’s get those 3 points.

Come on Arsenal.

Position: 17th, 2-4-5 (10 points, -7 goal differential)

Recent Form: LLDDD

Home Form: 1-2-2

Away to the midlands tomorrow to face Wolves at the Molineaux. Wolves are a solid side–I picked them to stay up this season, and I actually hope they do. They play much more entertaining football than sides like Brum, Hull, Blackburn, Bolton, Stoke, etc., and I’d hate to see another West Brom situation, because it would send a clear message that the way to avoid relegation is by playing tight at the back, hoofing the ball upfield, and kicking the opposition up in the air whenever they have the ball. I think this is already happened in the Premiership to some degree, and it really does make more much less entertaining viewing. So aside from tomorrow’s match and the fixture at the Emirates, I wish Wolves all the best.

But the fact is that they are a much inferior club to Arsenal, and there is no excuse for not winning this match. While Wolves have had some decent results at home (beating Fulham, drawing with Aston Villa), there is a substantial gulf in class between the two sides, and if we play our game they will be overmatched.

Arsene Wenger came out and said this was a very important match to win, because the Manchester United-Chelsea match is an opportunity to pick up points on at least one of those clubs. And he is, of course, right. A win tomorrow puts us very, very close to the top of the table. I think that in order to win the league, you have to do the following three things: (1) win almost every match against non-top 4 opposition at home; (2) win almost every match against mid-table and below clubs away; and (3) fare relatively well against top 4 opposition at home and top half of the table clubs away. Last season, we did very well at (3), but were unable to do (1) (losses at home to Hull and Aston Villa, draws with Spurs, West Ham, Sunderland, and Fulham) (2) (losing away to Stoke, draws with Spurs and Boro).

In our 6 league matches against fellow Big 4 opposition, we went 2-3-1, for 9 points. This was more than Manchester United (5 pts.) and Chelsea (4 pts.). But those clubs both finished well above us in the table, because they consistently beat all comers at home and played very well away. I think it was a matter of focus–at times, especially in the first half of the season, we seemed to go into games assuming we were going to win, and were punished for it. If you want to win the league, you’ve got to come into every fixture prepared and focused, and we didn’t do that last season. So far this season, with the exception of the last 20 minutes of the West Ham match, we’ve done this, but matches like the one tomorrow will really tell us a lot about how legitimate our title chances are.

They’ve been pretty tight at the back at home, only surrendering 6 goals in their 5 matches at home, and Arsenal has been prone to giving up goals in bunches away from the Emirates (9 in 5 matches), so don’t be surprised if this turns into a closer match than many expect. Wolves have two solid strikers in Kevin Doyle and Sylvan Ebanks-Blake, and are capable of putting the ball into the net, so Gallas, Vermaelen, and Song will need to have good games.

The team news for us is good news in that there is no news–no new injuries picked up in Wednesday’s Champions League fixture against AZ. If we can make it through this match without picking up any knocks, we’ll be bolstered by the returns of Walcott and Rosicky, with Denilson and Clichy hopefully not too far behind them. Lineup:

Almunia

Sagna-Gallas-Vermaelen-Gibbs

Diaby-Song-Fabregas

Nasri-van Persie-Arshavin

I suspect that’s what we’ll see, although it wouldn’t surprise if Eduardo started up front instead of Nasri, either. I suspect Eboue, Rosicky, and Ramsey could also see some action as well. It’s a strong lineup, and should be enough to see Wolves off.

Also, if you’ve got a few minutes, Tom Adams wrote a very, very good piece on Patrick Vieira and his importance to Arsenal FC over at ESPN Soccernet–I highly recommend checking it out. He says it better and in more detail than I will here, but Vieira really is an Arsenal legend (named by the fans as the 5th greatest Gunner of all time in the official site’s poll a few years back), and was really probably more important than anyone not named Thierry Henry in the successful Arsenal clubs of the late 90s and early 2000s–he gave the club a steel and a toughness that we have not been able to replace since he left. He was left out of the France squad for their upcoming playoff tie against the Republic of Ireland, and his international career could well be over.

Anyway, that’s about it. A win picks up ground on either Chelsea or United, if not both, and sends us into the international break with momentum on our side, which we’ll need since we square off with Chelsea on November 21. Have great weekends.

Come on Arsenal.

Position: 4th, 6-1-3 (19 points, +7 goal differential)

Recent Form: LWDWL

Away Form: 3-1-1

Last Meeting: Tottenham 0-Arsenal 0 (2/8/09)

It’s here. The North London derby.

This is a bit of a strange admission, and may result in a loss of credibility, but so be it. But I think it’s hard for us Arsenal fans who are not from England, and specifically not from London, to understand the importance of this match.

This is because it’s rooted not so much in the actual competitions in which the clubs play, but in the fact that the two clubs are so close to one another and compete locally for media attention and the hearts and minds of those that live near the club. After all, if the goal of a football club is to win trophies, then our biggest rivalry should be with the other clubs that are competing to win trophies, right? And that would be Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, and now Manchester City before Tottenham.

But there’s just something much stronger at play here. We all are aware of local rivalries where we live, and that’s probably the best way for someone not from England or London to really understand these derby games. For example, I am, unfortunately, a lifelong New York Mets fan. I now live in New York, and had to witness the Mets’ atrocious season while the Yankees spent their way to glory, their frontrunning fans bragging all the while. The Mets nightmare season continued when the two teams I hate the most as a Met fan, the Yankees and the Phillies, made the World Series. One of these teams will be world champions, and it makes me physicall ill.

But now, which team do I hate the most? Is it the Phillies, our division rivals whom we play 12 times per year and compete with head-to-head for a playoff slot? Not for me. It’s the Yankees, our crosstown rivals. And I suspect most Mets fans probably feel the same way.

Why? Because they’re the smug jerks we have to ride the subway with and work alongside every day, with their sanctimonious nonsense about who is and is not a “true Yankee” and the “Yankee way.” I was coming home late on Wednesday night, and rode the subway with a whole passel of sad Yankees fans, riding the subway back from their p.o.s. $1 billion stadium which is already crumbling after spending hundreds if not thousands of dollars to watch their team lose. And I’m almost ashamed of how happy it made me, riding the subway and looking at their forlorn faces. I think it’s the kind of thing it’s a bit hard to understand if you haven’t spent much time in the NYC area, just as truly understanding the passion of the North London derby is a bit hard to really understand if you haven’t spent much time there. It’s not that we don’t intensely dislike Spurs, but that we can’t truly understand the full extent of the rivalry from afar, because the root of the rivalry itself is grounded not in the matches themselves, but in the local atmosphere and culture.

Okay, enough about baseball. For Spurs, Jermain Defoe, Spurs leading scorer on the season, is out with a suspension (stay classy, Jermain). Aaron Lennon will also likely miss the game with an ankle injury, while Jonathan Woodgate and Ledley King will face late fitness tests to see if they can play. Luka Modric is out with a longterm injury.

For Arsenal, Rosicky, Djourou, Denilson, Walcott, and Fabianski are still out. Nasri looks set to make his first league appearance, although my sense is that he probably won’t start the game, since he’s still trying to build up fitness. That really leaves only two main lineup questions for us–goalkeeper and third forward. Arsene came out and said that he has decided on a goalie, but he’s not going to reveal it until lineups are submitted tomorrow. Fine, Arsene, be that way, but guess what? I’ve got a secret, too, and I’m not going to tell you about it. Hmph.

Second, who will start as the right forward? Bendtner and Eduardo are both healthy, and Wenger has deployed Eboue there on occasion as well. Aside from the goal, Bendtner was apparently pretty bad on Wednesday, and I think it’s really time we start wondering whether Eduardo’s injury hasn’t robbed him of so much pace that he may never be the first-team striker he could have been. Even though it’s not his natural position, then, I’ll guess Eboue gets the call.

Mannone

Sagna-Gallas-Vermaelen-Clichy

Diaby-Song-Fabregas

Eboue-van Persie-Arshavin

This is a rivalry game, and after last season, we have a score to settle. You’ll no doubt remember that in the corresponding fixture last autumn we were up 4-2 in the 89th minute only to fall apart and end up with a 4-4 draw. It was as shocking and demoralizing as just about anything I’ve seen as an Arsenal fan, and must not be repeated. Spurs are off to a good start, currently sitting 4th in the table. At the outset of the season, I did predict them to finish 5th this season, ahead of Manchester City, and I think they really are a very good side.

They’ll miss Defoe, but still have Robbie Keane and Peter Crouch, both of whom have had success against Arsenal in the past. Robbie Keane has been shooting his mouth off all week about how Spurs are better than Arsenal this season. Most players with an ounce of good sense wouldn’t be jabbering about how they were better than any club after they had just lost at home to frakking Stoke City, but that’s Robbie. He always seems to score against us, too, which makes him doubly annoying. I have to admit I wouldn’t be too sad if Vermaelen were to dump him on his ass a few times tomorrow.

Tottenham’s real problem, though, is that they have struggled without Modric. The little Croatian maestro has settled in as one of the Premiership’s most dynamic playmaking midfielders, and was really pulling the strings at Spurs before his injury. Just as Cesc is the “rudder of Arsenal,” Luka was the “rudder of Spurs.” But they’ve really struggled to create chances without him. Just look at a quick breakdown of their 10 fixtures so far:

With Modric: 4 matches, 4-0-0, 12 points, 11 goals scored, 4 conceded

Without Modric: 6 matches, 2-1-3, 7 points, 10 goals scored, 10 conceded

Tom Huddlestone’s a decent young player, but he’s not nearly at Modric’s level yet and isn’t quite capable of bearing the playmaker burden (not unlike Denilson for us last season). Their other option in the center of the field is Jermaine Jenas, who can be quite inconsistent.

They’re a dangerous club capable of really brilliant football on their day, and have more skill than any club outside of the top 4 or Manchester City. They will get forward and attack, and the center backs and especially Alex Song will need to bring their best games tomorrow to stymie Spurs moves forward. While Lennon being out is a help, Spurs are also very dangerous down the flanks, so Sagna and Clichy need to be careful about getting too far forward, because if they can’t get back and cover their positions, Spurs are pretty dangerous when they can bomb it into the box.

For us, I think we’ll be able to get forward and create some chances, but we’ve got to make the most out of them and finish. Poor finishing and a lack of killer instinct have cost us dearly lately (AZ, West Ham), and Spurs are a good enough team to make us pay if we’re wasteful. Spurs may especially be vulnerable if Woodgate and King are both out, as that leaves them with a real lack of quality along the backline.

The key man for Spurs may well be Wilson Palacios, who will be tasked with shielding the backline and cutting out Arsenal attacks. He’ll be looking to keep Cesc quiet all day, which will be difficult on Fabregas’s current form. Palacios shut Arsenal down in the second fixture between the two clubs last season, and was man of the match, but that was a team without Cesc and Arshavin, in a game in which Arsenal played the entire second half with ten men due to Eboue’s stupid, stupid, second yellow card.

Tomorrow needs to be different. Aside from the rivalry implications, it’s an incredibly important fixture. A win would keep us in the top 3, and with Liverpool and Aston Villa both facing very tricky fixtures, could put some distance between us and some of the teams chasing us. On the other hand, a loss could dump us from third to potentially all the way down to 8th, and really strengthen Spurs’ Top 4 candidacy. It’s a crucial match, let’s go out there and get those 3 points.

Come on Arsenal.

As I’ve said previously, I feel a little conflicted about the competition. Do I want to win? Yes, of course. But I have mixed feelings about how we treat the competition. Because, to be clear, Arsene Wenger does not really care about winning the Carling Cup. He views it as an opportunity for younger players to get to play–in that sense, it’s kind of a glorified reserves league for Arsenal. And if the manager isn’t too concerned with whether the team gets knocked out of the competition, it’s hard for us fans to get too worked up (or as my co-worker says, “be-jiggedy”) about it if we lose.

Still, I have to admit, I enjoy watching the matches when I get the chance. Part of it is the novelty of seeing a group of young players I haven’t gotten to watch very much before, but I think a lot of it is although the players are not as good or as skilled as the regulars, they are at a stage in their careers where a good performance or two can have a big impact on their career trajectories, and they know they will only have a few opportunities all season to play in the first-team, so they play with a real palpable drive and passion.

This match is a little bit odd. Usually at this stage, we’re playing a bottom of the table team or a lower division team, for whom playing us is one of their biggest, if not the biggest, fixture of the season. Their players are usually very motivated by the opportunity to play in front of such a big crowd in a match with so much exposure. But Liverpool are largely in the same boat as us–they’ll be playing youngsters and reserves, and have about the same motivation to win as we do. As Ben Folds would say, it’s a battle of who could care less.

In terms of team news, as usual, there’s some good, some bad. Let’s get rid of the bad first–Rosicky, Denilson and Djourou are still down with injuries, and Traore and Wilshere are out with minor knocks. The latter two are disappointing, especially Wilshere, who has shown a world of promise but hasn’t gotten much in the way of first-team opportunities. He’s precisely the type of player that benefits most from our Carling Cup strategy, and it’s too bad he won’t be able to show what he can do against Liverpool tomorrow.

In good news, though, Nasri and Fabianski is back, and will both start. Nasri had a good first season for the team last season, and is still quite young–he could really be a difference maker down the stretch for us. Even more important, he could keep Diaby out of the lineup. Bendtner and Eduardo, who both came on as late subs against West Ham, will supposedly start. My best guess at a lineup:

Fabianski

Gilbert-Senderos-Silvestre-Gibbs

Coquelin-Ramsey-Nasri

Eduardo-Bendtner-Vela

That’s assuming we go with a 4-3-3, which is far from certain. But honestly, at this point, isn’t Vela like the all-time leading goalscorer in the Carling Cup? I think he’s only scored a goal or two in every other senior competition, but it seems like he scores for fun in the Carling Cup. He’s like Crash Davis. Got to get him in the game somehow, right? Hopefully we’ll have enough quality to get through Liverpool–the home field advantage should help, and they’ll be playing reserves as well.

The big news for Liverpool is that it should be the first start for £20 million man Alberto Aquilani, who was brought in to replace Xabi Alonso over the summer but has been crocked since he last played for Roma (in the Champions League match against Arsenal, ironically enough). He’s a quality player, and will be looking to put in a good performance to convince Rafa he’s ready to play regularly, but hopefully he’s still rusty enough from the lay-off that he won’t damage us too bad.

Right, well, that’s about it. Come on Arsenal.

Position: 14th, 2-5-1 (7 points, -3 goal differential)

Recent Form: LLWLL

Away Form: 1-0-3

Last Meeting: Birmingham 2-Arsenal 2 (2/23/08)

How can two weeks seem like such a long time? Seriously, it seems like a month since we played Blackburn. At any rate, we’re about 24 hours from Arsenal’s return to league action against Birmingham tomorrow.

The game is notable, of course, because it marks the first meeting between the two clubs since the February 2008 game. Entering that game, Arsenal were five points clear of Manchester United. Martin Taylor’s vicious challenge which caused a compound fracture earned him a red card, so even though the players were clearly shaken, we played virtually the entire match with a man advantage. Arsenal dominated that game, and despite some atrocious finishing by Adebayor, looked to be in control, with Theo Walcott’s brace giving us a one-goal lead. Then, in injury time, Clichy brought down Parnaby in the box and Birmingham converted the spot kick to steal a point from the match. They actually scored more goals in the match (2) than they had shots on goal (1). On the other hand, we took 26 shots, 13 of them on goal, and only managed two goals. Adebayor, as I said, was particularly at fault–whenever people say we shouldn’t have let him go, I can’t help but think of games like this where even average finishing would have won us the game. As the final whistle blew, Gallas sat down on the pitch and cried.

I know it’s just one game, and we still had a three-point lead which we couldn’t keep, but the game really did seem to be the turning point. Maybe it was because we lost a top striker in Eduardo, maybe it was because the team was shaken by the injury and/or lack of leadership shown by Gallas, maybe it was because the game exposed some of the team’s flaws–poor defending on set pieces, propensity to dominate possession but not finish clubs off, etc. But the team was never quite the same after that.

Perhaps tomorrow gives us the opportunity to take a measure of revenge, or get some closure or whatever. Personally, I don’t buy into too much of that stuff–for me, and I imagine for most of the players, this is just one game out of 38. And a very winnable game at that. With a winnable game in hand, we really are right in the thick of the title race, and with Liverpool playing at Sunderland without Torres and Gerrard, and Chelsea playing Aston Villa at Villa Park, some of the clubs around us are going to be dropping points, so 3 points will help us gain ground.

Birmingham is a tough side. I picked them for relegation at the beginning of the season, but they do seem to be adopting the right strategy for avoiding relegation, which is concentrate on playing fundamentally sound, physical defense, and try to steal a few draws away to good teams and pick up the odd 1-0 or 2-1 win with some long balls and set pieces. This kind of football is pretty dire to watch, but you can’t deny that it’s successful (see, e.g., Stoke last season, Sam Allardyce’s entire career) inasfar as teams that really commit to it usually finish out of the drop zone. It will be a contrast in style, though–Arsenal are the top-scoring outfit in the Premiership, with 24 goals from 7 matches, while only Portsmouth (4) have scored fewer than Birmingham’s 5 goals.

Martin Taylor is out of the match through injury, so that storyline should hopefully not get played up too much. Birmingham is led by Scots midfielder Barry Ferguson and forward James McFadden, and newcomer Roger Johnson, a summer transfer from Cardiff, anchors the backline. Other than that, they have a piecemeal squad made up of guys who were put out by other clubs but have found a home in Birmingham–Teemu Tainio, Stephen Carr, Stuart Parnaby, Lee Bowyer, etc.

When we think of a manager “having an eye for talent,” we generally think of someone like Wenger, who is capable of spotting in young players the potential for greatness. But there’s something impressive about somebody like McLeish’s “eye for talent” as well–while what he does is very different from Wenger, what he is able to do well is look over the landscape of veteran players who are out of favor at their clubs and decide who has the potential for “goodness.” For a club like Birmingham, that is crucial. Most of these guys are not big, not quick, not particularly athletic or technically gifted. Many of them were out of favor at clubs like Middlesbrough or Newcastle, which are no longer even in the Premiership. And yet, McLeish has managed to fashion this group into a sum that’s better than the whole of his parts, for not a lot of money, and that is impressive in its own way. It will be interesting to see what McLeish does with the big transfer kitty he will supposedly be given in January, because it’s something he’s never really had before.

For Arsenal, the injury list still includes Djourou, Nasri, Fabianski, and Denilson. Clichy picked up an ankle injury on international duty, Bendtner apparently tweaked his groin, and Vela will be left out of the squad since he had to fly back from Mexico yesterday and will still be dealing with jet lag. Diaby also picked up a knock, but apparently will be included in the squad.

The big news is that Almunia is apparently fit to return after his mysterious chest infection. Although Mannone has been great, Almunia plays if he’s fit. The tougher question will be when Fabianski returns, whether Mannone has surpassed him as the number 2 keeper. With Clichy out, Gibbs slots in at starting left-back–the young man played pretty well in the spring when Clichy was out with a back injury, hopefully he can pick up where he left off.

Almunia

Sagna-Gallas-Vermaelen-Gibbs

Diaby-Song-Fabregas

Rosicky-van Persie-Arshavin

I think that’s almost certainly going to be the lineup configuration, with the possible exception of Walcott in the squad over Rosicky. I really think it’s pretty much a toss up between those two. I wish Wenger would start Walcott up front and play Rosicky back in a midfield playmaker role, but from what we’ve seen so far, Wenger really likes to have 3 “true” center mids in there when he plays the 4-3-3, and I don’t see him changing at this point. At any rate, look for Walcott to at least get some time in a sub role, and I suspect we’ll see Aaron Ramsey tomorrow as well. Eboue or possibly Wilshere could make an appearance as well.

This is really a game we should win, but you never know with matches like this. I hate playing these types of matches coming out of international breaks, because the players haven’t played together in two weeks, are possibly tired and/or jetlagged, and a team like Birmingham that’s tough to break down can really exploit the team’s rustiness in that situation. But we’re playing at home, and there really is a large gulf in talent and skill between the sides, so anything less than 3 points will be a massive disappointment.

As we talked about in the comments to a previous post, it looks like this game is not being televised live in the US. I believe Setanta is replaying the game tomorrow evening, if you have Setanta and can wait that long. Otherwise, it looks like internet streams might be the way to go.

Nevada Smith’s, the famous football bar here in NYC, claims they are televising it live, so I’ll probably head over there to try to watch it. You will recall that I have only been there twice, for both Manchester matches, so I have yet to see Arsenal win there. I told myself I wouldn’t go back, but since it seems to be the only place in the area broadcasting it, I don’t think I have much of a choice. Long story short, if we don’t win, you can blame me.

But let’s win and get those 3 points. Come on Arsenal.

Last Season: 15th, 10-11-17 (41 points, -20 goal differential)

Recent Form: LDWLW

Away Form (last season): 4-4-11

Last Meeting: Arsenal 4-Blackburn 0 (3/14/09)

Back in league action early tomorrow against Blackburn. Coming off of a surprisingly strong 7th place finish in 2007-2008, Blackburn plummeted back to earth last season after Paul Ince replaced Mark Hughes as manager. Flirting with relegation for most of the season, Blackburn bounced back to safety once Ince was sacked and replaced by Sam Allardyce and his patented brand of anti-football.

So far this season, Blackburn have picked up right where they left off. Woeful away, tough at home, playing very ugly, but just tough enough to avoid the drop. They’re currently sitting 15th, but have struggled with 2 losses away to Sunderland and Everton.

Arsene Wenger has made no secret of his distaste for how Allardyce’s teams play over the years. There is no mystery about it–they will come out looking for the 0-0 draw. They’ll keep everyone behind the ball, kick Arsenal’s players up in the air, and kick the ball down the field when they do get the ball. Their goal is merely to frustrate.

But their mission will be made a bit more difficult due to injuries. Captain Ryan Nelson and Chris Samba, Blackburn’s two center backs, were both injured in their last game and face late fitness tests. Fullback Gael Givet is just returning from injury, and midfielder Steven Reid’s achilles may be healthy enough for him to make his first start of the season. Center midfielder Vince Grella is out through suspension after being sent off last week against Aston Villa.

Once again, this is a game from which we should definitely be taking 3 points. Spurs dropped points today against Bolton. Chelsea plays Liverpool and Aston Villa plays Manchester City tomorrow after we play, which means that there’s going to be a lot of teams at the top of the table dropping points, so we need to take advantage. I think it’s going to be all about pushing up and breaking down Blackburn’s defense and finding a way to put the ball into the net. As is always the case in these types of games, scoring the first goal will completely change the course of the game, because it will force Blackburn to come out of their shell and actually play football, which plays directly into our hands by opening things up a bit and allowing our guys to find space on the attack.

In injury news for us, Eduardo is out with a recurring thigh problem. And Almunia is still not fit with the world’s strangest injury–still that “chest infection,” apparently. So they join Denilson, Nasri, Fabianski, and Djourou in the trainer’s room. In better news, Walcott will be in the squad tomorrow, and Bendtner will be back after his car accident.

Wenger’s main lineup dilemmas, therefore, will be settling on a midfield and settling on a forward line. I have to think he’ll try to work Theo back in gradually, especially since Walcott will probably be able to get some rest over the international break to well and truly make sure he’s back and healthy for our fall and winter schedule. So I have to think he’ll probably start on the bench, and maybe come on in the 65-70th minute in the impact role in which he served so effectively in 2007-2008. I imagine Bendtner will get the start instead. As for the midfield, it’s probably wishful thinking, but given Diaby’s extraordinarily bad performance against Fulham, hopefully Rosicky will get the nod.

Mannone

Sagna-Gallas-Vermaelen-Clichy

Rosicky-Song-Fabregas

Bendtner-van Persie-Arshavin

Here’s to 3 points. Come on Arsenal.

Anyway, along with Panathinaikos, defending champions Olympiakos are a perennial Greek power, and currently sit 2nd in the table in their domestic league. I can’t claim to know much about them, but they’re a solid team of international veterans and managed by Brazilian great Zico. Their defense is tough–they shut out AZ in their first match of the group, and have only allowed 2 goals in 5 domestic matches. There will be no secret to their strategy today–they’ll be out there trying to frustrate Arsenal at every turn, and they would be more than happy to come away with a draw.

But we can’t let that happen. Anything less than 3 points for us today will be a massive disappointment. Teams like this have frustrated us in the past, but we’ve got to play our game and find a way through their defense, and we can’t be as wasteful with the chances we do create as we have been lately.

The squad is pretty lean today. Almunia, Fabianski, Nasri, Denilson, Bendtner, and Walcott are all out–Walcott, incidentally, played 60 minutes of a friendly earlier today, apparently without incident, so should hopefully be available for Blackburn on Sunday. In better news, Eduardo apparently returns to the squad after missing the Fulham match with a knock, and will give us an extra option in attack. My best guess at a squad:

Mannone

Sagna-Gallas-Vermaelen-Clichy

Rosicky-Song-Fabregas-Diaby

Arshavin-van Persie

It’s entirely possible that Wenger could opt for more of a 4-3-3, with either Eduardo playing up front and Rosicky or Diaby starting on the bench, or Arshavin moving to the left and Rosicky moving up to play the forward/winger position. But given the short two-day break since we last played, don’t be surprised to see a bit of rotation or early substitutions if we can grab a goal or two early. van Persie might be due for a breather, and Fabregas has logged a lot of miles already this season. I think we could see a fair bit of Eduardo, Eboue, Ramsey, Wilshere, or maybe even Vela today if we can control the game.

This is a tricky fixture, but the thing about these matches is that the longer a team like Olympiakos can stay in the match against us at the Emirates, the more they grow in will and confidence, making them that much more dangerous. It’s a snowball effect. The best thing for us to do is come out strong and grab a goal in the first half-hour or so, getting the crowd into it, forcing them to come out of their shell and try to score, and making them feel as if there is a mountain to climb.

Conversely, I think that unlike Standard, this is a team that is capable of holding a league, so we have to make good decisions in our own end (*cough* Clichy *cough*), make sure the ball gets cleared out, and, very important, do NOT concede a lot of sloppy free kicks around our own area. Olympiakos are apparently very good in the air and very effective on set pieces, which just so happens to be a weakness of ours. I think their road map to victory consists of staying tight at the back, trying to catch us on the counter and forcing us into conceding set pieces where they can put a ball high into the box and see what happens. We’ve got to be disciplined and not allow them to do it.

As I mentioned yesterday, I’m traveling for work today so probably won’t be able to see the game, so let this serve as your open thread as well.

Come on Arsenal.

Last Season: 7th, 14-11-13 (53 points, +5 goal differential)

Recent Form: WLLWL

Home Form (last season): 4-4-11

Last Meeting: Arsenal 0-Fulham 0 (2/28/09)

Back in league action tomorrow with a VERY tough match-up against Fulham. This is one of those very tricky match-ups that is not going to be much fun at all.

Fulham took 4 points from us last season, and we only took 1 point from them. In two matches, we failed to score a single goal against them. Their defense was better than ours last season, and they finished 4th in goals allowed, behind only Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool.

Their game plan isn’t complicated, but it can be brutally effective. They concentrate on staying tight at the back and hitting teams on the counter. Mark Schwarzer is one of the league’s better keepers, and their backline of Hangeland, Konchesky, Aaron Hughes, and Pantsil is one of the best and most cohesive units in football. Arsenal will again have their hands full trying to break the unit down, which they were unable to do for all of last season.

In better news, Fulham’s offense is much less effective. Fulham’s top goalscoring threat is Andrew Johnson, who was the only Cottager to tally double digit goals last season with 10. He’s got some skill and guile, but he’s small and relies on pace to beat defenders, and Vermaelen and (especially) Gallas generally deal very well with forwards like that. Beyond that, we should keep an eye on Clint Dempsey, who it must be said is starting to show his age, and midfielder Danny Murphy, who’s capable of popping up with the odd goal every now and then.

Fulham’s one of those teams who always give you a tough game. They play well as a unit, are made up of a group of solid veteran professionals, and are well-managed by Roy Hodgson. This is particularly true at Craven Cottage–their home record last season was 6th in the Premiership. They’ve been a bit less impressive so far this season, but they’ve had a tough early schedule, having to play Chelsea, Aston Villa, Everton, and Manchester City (in the Carling Cup) already. 3 points is a possibility, but it won’t come easy.

Adding to the stress is that, for a game this early in the season, I think this is a pretty important fixture for us. At the moment we are 9 points behind Chelsea in the table. Chelsea is playing Wigan tomorrow, a game you have to think they’ll be taking full points from. If we fail to win, and go 11 or 12 points down, that’s a tough gap. I think we’re as good as any team, but making up 12 points over 32 matches on a team like Chelsea is not an easy task at all, and having our title hopes on life support so early in the season would be a real drag.

Almunia is still out with this mysterious “chest infection.” When I first heard about it I thought he had just picked up some sort of virus and would be back within a matter of days, but apparently it’s more serious–with Fabianski still out, this presents Wenger with a bit of a dilemma: does he use Mannone, who’s looked a bit shaky so far, or Wojciech Szczęsny, who apparently looked very good in the Carling Cup mid-week. If it were me I’d say stick with Mannone–he looked better against Wigan, and Fabianski was fantastic in the Carling Cup last season but got exposed a bit when called into first-team action.

In better news, Arshavin is back and available for this match, and will likely start. Theo also makes his return, but Wenger hesitated when asked if he would start. My prediction is he starts on the bench, makes an appearance as an impact sub, and is in contention to start in the Champions League match mid-week. Other than that, I’m not aware of any new injury news. My prediction:

Mannone

Sagna-Gallas-Vermaelen-Clichy

Rosicky-Song-Fabregas

Arshavin-van Persie-Eduardo

I think Arshavin starts, but the only question is whether he comes in for Bendtner or Eduardo. My guess is Bendtner, but it’s pretty much a toss up. And especially because Fulham is a counter-attacking team that is so tough to break down, putting in Diaby ahead of Song makes a fair amount of tactical sense as well.

That’s it for now. Here’s hoping for 3 points going into Tuesday’s match against Olympiakos, and then a soft stretch of league matches: Blackburn, Birmingham, and West Ham. Also, Carling Cup draw takes place tomorrow, and it seems to be dominated even more than usual by Premiership clubs–only Barnsley, Peterborough, and Scunthorpe remain from the lower levels. So hopefully we’ll draw one of them, but last year our youngsters spanked Wigan Athletic’s first team only to be well beaten by Championship side Burnley, so who knows.

Come on Arsenal.

It is tempting, with the United game coming up this weekend, to think that this is a good chance for squad rotation. And it would take something pretty spectacular on Celtic’s part for us not to go through at this point. But it would represent a huge gamble, with the group stages and all the attendant money and prestige on the line. Don’t forget, too, that Celtic were a bit unlucky with both goals in Glasgow–on another day, it could have pretty easily been a 0-0 draw. So this is not some pushover team–they’ve shown they’re capable of playing us tough. They’re also a team that has proven that they can win crucial European road wins, since they got this far by rebounding from a 1-0 loss at home to beat Dinamo Moscow 2-0 in the Russian capital. I do suspect we’ll see a bit of rotation, but by and large I suspect it’ll look a lot like the team that played in Glasgow.

And we really do have a huge advantage. The Moscow result notwithstanding, Celtic’s recent road record in Europe is pretty dire. In last year’s group stage, they lost 2-1, 3-0, and 1-0 to Aalborg, Manchester United, and Villareal. In 2007-2008, they drew 1-1 away to Spartak Moscow, and then lost 1-0, 1-0, and 2-0 to Benfica, Milan, and Shakhtar Donetsk. Over the span of two years in Europe, then, they went 0-1-6 in 7 road games, scoring a total of 2 goals. History would suggest that they will (a) not be able to come into the Emirates and get a win; and (b) not be able to score 2 goals against a defense that’s playing very well at the moment. Still, Tony Mowbray’s style is more wide open and conducive to attacking than his predecessor’s, and they’ll be playing loose and pressure-free, since they have nothing to lose. If they grab an early goal, things could get interesting.

As I said, I think we’ll see basically a first-team squad, although I do think we’ll see some squad rotation. Here’s my best guess:

Almunia

Sagna-Gallas-Vermaelen-Clichy

Denilson-Song-Diaby

Eduardo-Bendtner-Arshavin

Hopefully we’ll come out and take care of business. Celtic will likely be in all-out attack mode, which means they’ll be vulnerable at the back. If we can hit them on a counter and grab the first goal, I would have to think that would pretty much be game, set, and match. Our task will be made a bit easier by the absence of their solid holding midfielder, Landry N’Guemo, who picked up too many yellows and is suspended for this match. And hopefully Arsene has been holding off on bringing in a couple more signings until we’re guaranteed of the group stage revenue. So hopefully after today we might start to see some action on the transfer front. I’ll be DVRing the game while I’m at work (work is so stupid…), but I’ll try to go ahead and post a game thread post when lineups are announced so those of you watching it live can chat about it.

Come on Arsenal.