AC Milan – Arsenal Preview

AC Milan

Position 1st, 14-5-4 (47 points, +25 goal differential)

Home Record: 7-3-1, +19 goal differential

Recent Form: WWLDW

Last Meeting: AC Milan 0 – Arsenal 2 (March 4, 2008)

Tomorrow brings a trip to one of Europe’s great venues to play one of the greatest, if not the greatest, clubs, historically, in all of European football. This is what the Champions League is all about.

It’s going to be very tough. AC Milan is currently top of the table in Serie A. They have been very, very tough at the San Siro in particular, only losing once in the league this season, and only conceding 5 goals in 11 league matches at home.

We do have a good history at the San Siro. Of course, there was the 2008 win, and THAT Cesc goal.

We also beat their cross-town rivals, Internazionale, 5-1, at the San Siro back in November 2003. However, I doubt those will really have any effect on this match. Of the players who played in that match for Arsenal, only Almunia, Sagna, and Walcott are still with the club (and van Persie was on the bench as an unused sub). Milan has had quite a bit of turnover as well, and were in the midst of a fallow (by their standards, anyway) period where Inter was the dominant team in Italian football. Now AC Milan is back on top, as defending Serie A champs and currently sitting top of the table.

Regular readers will know that I do not watch very many matches from other leagues, so I’m not going to pass myself off as some kind of expert on AC Milan. But they’ve certainly got some proven, talented players. Zlatan Ibrahimovic leads the attack, and has 21 goals in all competitions this season. They’ve got plenty of other talented attackers as well — Nocerino, Robinho, Kevin-Prince Boateng, and Cassano are all very threatening players as well. By goals scored, they have the best attack in Serie A by some distance, with 45 goals.

But AC Milan’s defense is also very strong. Marco Amelia is a very solid keeper, and their defensive unit, led by the great Thiago Silva, Phillipe Mexes, the ageless Clarence Seedorf, and others, are going to be very tough to break down, especially at the San Siro. Especially with the away goals rule, we will have to work hard to try to find a way to get past them and create some opportunities.

In team news for us . . . well, there isn’t much. I was waiting to post this for some kind of news to come out, but it’s been pretty quiet. The big news, obviously, is that Mertesacker is out for this game and probably for a while. Young Guns Blog tweeted a picture that was supposedly of Mertesacker’s ankle (and YGG is generally pretty reliable, so I think it is probably accurate), and it looked pretty gnarly — bruised all to hell and swollen pretty bad. PerMer has apparently gone to see the German national team’s physio over the injury as well. My guess would be a pretty massive sprain, that will probably keep him out until mid- to late- April at least. I’m no doctor, but had some pretty bad sprains in my basketball career, and they can actually be worse than a clean ankle break in terms of the time it takes to heal, so I think he’ll be out for a while. Gibbs is back, and according to Wenger is physically and mentally ready. I think he’ll probably start. Other than that, I am not aware of any new injuries in the squad. The long-termers (Jenkinson, Santos, Wilshere, Diaby) are still out.

Here’s my best guess at a lineup:

Wojo

Sagna – Koscielny – Vermaelen – Gibbs

Song – Arteta

Walcott – Ramsey – The OC

van Persie

Bench: Fabianski, Djourou, Arshavin, Rosicky, Benayoun, Coquelin, Henry

Wojo starts in goal. Mertesacker’s injury means we have to change our backline. Sagna will stay at right-back, and Koscielny will stay at center back. Vermaelen will start in some capacity, I think it’s a question of either him starting at center back and Gibbs at left back, or Vermaelen remaining at left back and Djourou coming in to partner Koscielny in the middle. I think it will probably depends on how Gibbs has been training and how confident Wenger is in his ability to step back into the lineup for the first time in a while in such a massive match in a tense atmosphere. I think he gives us more going forward, which is crucial because of the away goals rule, and Vermaelen and Koscielny is a much better center back combo than Koscielny and Djourou.

I think Song and Arteta keep their places in the side, because despite Coquelin’s good showings, both Song and Arteta have been crucial to our success so far. The big question is who starts in the advanced role — Rosicky got the start against Sunderland, and did okay, but Ramsey’s crucial substitute appearance for me tips the scales to switch them out and have an apparently rested, refreshed Ramsey start there.

Up front, it’s van Persie, of course. Henry, in what is likely his last appearance in an Arsenal shirt, will be on the bench and will in all probability come on as a substitute. Who starts out wide will be interesting. Gervinho played a lot in the ACN final on Sunday, so he won’t join up with the team until Saturday at the earliest. Walcott and The OC started on Saturday, and have both been playing pretty well lately. Walcott has excelled in Champions League matches in the past, and I think he’ll start. The OC has made a massive impact since being given his first-team chance, but has never played in a match or atmosphere like this — does Wenger trust him to do so at this young stage of his career? Or would he rather go with Arshavin, fresh off his match-winning assist in a substitute appearance on Saturday?

Massive, massive European match — this is what the Champions League is all about. Let’s score a goal or two and get a good result, giving us a big chance to advance in the second leg at the Emirates.

Come on Arsenal.

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Category: Arsenal News, Champions League, Fixtures, Preview