Arsenal 4-AZ 1; Kroenke on the Brink

By: Martin | November 5th, 2009

Arsenal v AZ
by nineinchmail

There’s not much else to say other than that that was a sublime performance by Arsenal. The trophy draught is frustrating, but honestly, when Arsenal plays like they did last night, dominating another club through sheer skill, technique, and teamwork, it just reminds me how lucky I am to root for Arsenal.

Anyway, first things first. I know that technically, mathematically, we haven’t qualified for the knockout stages yet. But the sequence of events that would have to happen to keep us out is EXTREMELY unlikely. I mean, we’re talking about “Jon and Kate’s kids grow up to be normal, emotionally stable adults” unlikely. I mean, we’re talking about “Transformers 2 sweeps the Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Director (Michael Bay), Best Actor (Shia Lebeouf), and Best Actress (Megan Fox)” unlikely. I mean, we’re talking about “Heidi and Spencer get Ph.Ds in molecular biology and work together to cure cancer” unlikely. I mean, we’re talking about “Chelsea failing to win and their fans not immediately blaming the referee” unlikely. Okay, I’ve got a million of them, but you get the idea. It’s unlikely. We ARE through to the knockout stages, and that’s how I’m proceeding.

The question addressed by Homey and others in the comments after last night’s game was whether we should try to win the group or be content with second place. The past few years, Arsene Wenger has seemingly been very content to finish second in the group, so long as we advance–look at the lineup we trotted out against Porto on Matchday 6 last season. That was basically the Carling Cup squad plus Almunia and Gallas.

But last year, the clubs who were in the pool of first-place finishers wasn’t that much different than the pool of second place finishers. Behold the two pools, with their UEFA Ranking coefficient (coming into the 2008-2009 season) in parentheses:

First-place: Roma (16), Panathinaikos (37), Barca(4), Liverpool(3), Manchester United(6), Bayern(11), Porto(17), Juventus(23)

Second-place: Chelsea(1), Inter(9), Sporting(21), Atletico(67), Villareal(13), Lyon(8), Arsenal(5), Real Madrid(10)

Average ranking of first-place teams: 14.625; average ranking of second-place teams: 18, although that’s really just dragged down by Atletico’s bizarrely low ranking. Both groups had 6 teams ranked in the top 20, one club just outside the top 20, and one club substantially lower. In fact, the second-place teams had more top 10-ranked clubs (5) than the first-place group (3). Ask clubs like Roma (who drew Arsenal in the first-round) and Juventus (who drew Chelsea) how much good finishing first did them.

But I do think this year may turn out to be quite a bit different. More so than in past years it seems like there are a number of smaller clubs which may well sneak into the knockout stages: If CSKA Moscow can beat Wolfsburg at home next matchday, they have a very good chance at going through, Romanian side Unirea Urziceni (gesundheit!) has a decent chance to make it, Rubin Kazan and/or Dynamo Kiev both have a better-than-you-think shot at getting out of Group F.

There is no such thing as an “easy” draw in a European knock-out tie (PSV taught us that), but there’s no doubt that some draws are more desirable than others. Sure, if we win our group, there’s a chance we could draw with a Barca, Juventus, or Real Madrid. But if there’s a 1 in 4 or better chance we could draw a club from Eastern Europe not accustomed to playing at this level, it’s worth it.

It’s also worth noting that at this point, it wouldn’t take much for us to win the group. All we have to do is beat Standard Liege at the Emirates. Standard has shown quite a bit more than people thought they would, and will almost certainly host AZ on the last Matchday with a good shot at getting into the Europa League knockout stages. But without discrediting them, the fact is that we should win this match easily. I say we should play most of our first-team against them, take care of business there, and then we can basically just send the Carling Cup team to Greece in December, and make sure our stars are rested and focused on Liverpool the following weekend.

As for the match itself, we were in control from start to finish. van Persie very nearly started the game with a bang in the 3rd minute with a brilliant shot which was just pushed around the post by Romero (and it was all downhill from there for the young Argentine keeper). Then we had a period where we struggled to create real chances, but in the 25th minute, Cesc took a crafty shot from outside the box which wrong-footed Romero, who couldn’t get enough of a hand on it to keep it out. It was bad keeping, but it was a nice shot by Cesc to force Romero into making as top, and he was rewarded. We continued to press until, right before the break, Arshavin put a nice ball forward to Nasri, who beat his man and then put a composed finish past Romero. It was a nice play and a great moment for Nasri, scoring a goal in his first start on the season.

We struck again shortly after the break. It was again down to Arshavin, who put Cesc through on goal beautifully, and Cesc relaxed and finished nicely. Throughout this, AZ created very few chances, the best of which was a nearly point-blank shot in the 56th minute that Almunia did very well to push up off the crossbar. Then, in the 72nd minute, we conjured up a bit of magic–Eduardo back-heeled a wonderful ball forward to Arshavin, who took on his man and put Diaby through on goal in the box, and Diaby finished well.

Then, in the 82nd minute, off a corner kick where we could have had a penalty for a handball in the box, AZ countered, and substitute Lens caught Almunia leaning to score a consolation goal. And that’s how it ended, 4-1 Arsenal.

It was a beautiful performance, and showed what the club is capable of. Nasri looked good in his first start, and gives us another option both up front and in midfield. I also think we may have figured out how to play with a lead, which had been a problem. And that is wholeheartedly embracing the old cliche that a best defense is a good offense. The problem is that Arsenal don’t have the size to defend set pieces or crosses into the box very well, and the players aren’t used to playing conservatively. Based on how we’ve played the past two matches with the lead, I think at this point the best thing the club can do is just keep attacking–if we keep the ball in the other side’s half they can’t score, and the best way to protect a two-goal lead is by scoring a third goal. The corner kick which led to the counter was drawn by Gallas making a run into the box. This was with the club up 4-0, in the 81st minute. And that seems to work much better for us than playing tentatively and staying back, so that’s fine by me.

Anyway, on to the ratings:

Almunia 6.5. Saved one goal through a spectacular save, gave up a soft goal by leaning the wrong way. It all evens out, I suppose. Didn’t really have too much to do.

Eboue 6. Showed what he is capable of by making several marauding runs down the flank and through the middle. Also showed what he is capable of by leaving the right-side exposed several times.

Gibbs 7.Looked comfortable filling in for Clichy, and very nearly grabbed a goal for his troubles. I think he’ll continue to improve as he matures and gets used to playing with the first-team.

Vermaelen 7. Generally untroubled, made a few forward runs, marked his man well.

Gallas 7. Ditto. Was really getting forward a lot, too.

Song 6.5. Solid performance–consistently shielded the back four and won the ball in midfield. He needs to abandon his delusions about making spectacular through balls, though–the few times he tried to put someone through on goal he just gave the ball away. As long as he plays within himself he helps the team a lot.

Diaby 7.5. Grabbed the goal, worked hard, and generally had one of his best games of the season. But I still don’t think he should be starting if everyone else is healthy.

Cesc 8.5. Co-Man of the Match. Worked hard, grabbed two solid goals. Good day for the rudder of the Arsenal. Based on recent form, is he the best midfielder in the world at the moment? 8 goals and 11 assists in 13 games would point the Ouija planchette towards “yes.”

Nasri 7.5 Disappeared for long stretches, but when he did get involved, reminded us what he’s capable of contributing. Beautiful move to get past his man and finish on the goal. He’ll only get better as he gets fit again and shakes off the rust.

Arshavin 8.5. Co-Man of the Match. He hasn’t been playing that well lately, but he bounced back in a big way last night with numerous dangerous runs, and three assists. He seemed to be popping up everywhere, it was a great game. Not to rain on that parade, but does it bother anyone else that he doesn’t actually seem all that happy when Arsenal score? You almost never see him run over to congratulate the scorer as enthusastically as the rest of the team. Hmmmm.

van Persie 7. Didn’t score for what seems like the first time in a while, but was still involved in everything and looked dangerous.

Wenger’s Tie 7 Solid, even underneath his big winter jacket.

Eduardo 7. I still think his loss of pace will keep him from ever being the same player he was before the injury, but he still has a world of skill, as he showed on the backheel that started the move that led up to the 4th goal.

Ramsey 6. Nondescript.

Rosicky 6.5. Looked lively in a brief cameo.

Raspberry Peach Snapple 10. Holy crap. I’ve never really seen this flavor before, so I picked it up to drink while I was watching the match last night, and this must be what heroin is like. You hardly ever see this, but if you see a place that sells them, trust me–buy all of them and horde them. Or just drink them all at once. You won’t regret it.

We’re almost 1/3 of the way through the season, and I think you’d have to be pretty content with things so far. Diaby’s headed own goal against Manchester United and the collapse against West Ham notwithstanding, we’ve made a very bright start to the season. We just need to do a professional job on Saturday away to Wolves, and since at least one of Chelsea or Manchester United will drop points, a win will put us functionally second in the table (remember the game in hand). Not bad.

The other news is that Stan Kroenke bought up a few hundred more shares of Arsenal, taking him right to the brink of the 29.9% takeover threshold. I am completely confused by this whole thing, and can’t tell if he’s content to be a silent investor or he actually wants control of the club. If it’s the latter, both the current board and the Arsenal Supporters’ Trust seems okay with it, so he’s at least convinced them that a takeover by him wouldn’t actually change how the club is run. We shall see.