Arsenal – Bolton Preview

And so Arsenal come into the weekend on the back of a convincing 3-1 win over League Two side Shrewsbury Town. Since I didn’t listen or watch the game and only saw the highlights of three spectacular Arsenal goals, and an unavoidable goal against, I will remain in my dreamworld and ignore the panic on Twitter that went on during the game.

Arsenal will play this match at the Emirates Stadium which can only be a good thing, considering our recent exploits to the North-East of England. In the two matches in the North-East, Arsenal have come away with a total big fat zero points, and a stunning 12 goals against this season. Thankfully Arsenal will not go back up there until December 17, when we will surely have figured out all our defensive frailities. Right?

Bolton are always talked about a traditional bogey club for Arsenal since the days of Sam Allardyce as their physical approach to the game always gave us fits and nightmares. The truth is that since the 2006/07 season, Arsenal have won 9, drawn one and lost twice to Bolton, and the last time Arsenal lost to Bolton at home was February 9, 1994, and that was an FA Cup match. In the 2004-2006 stretch, Arsenal did actually struggle with Bolton with only 2 wins in 7 matches (one FA match), but those years are long gone, so don’t listen to ‘Arsenal struggles with Bolton’ stories.

While the Fat Sam years are gone and Owen Coyle is their manager now, they still retain that physical approach with the likes of Kevin Davies, Fabrice Muamba and Paul Robinson as regular starters who have no fear going hard into tackles or ‘protecting themselves’ with their elbows. Coyle has attempted to get their club to play a more attractive style since his tenure has started, inserting players like Chung Yong Lee, Chris Eagles, Jack Wilshere, Daniel Sturridge and Daniel N’Gog to curve out the rough edges off their approach but I don’t think I have ever seen an Arsenal/Bolton game go without a dirty Paul Robinson tackle. If Robinson was any good at all, he would likely be talked about in the same foul breath mentions as Kevin Davies, Joey Barton and Robbie Savage, but he is rather crap at his job and so no one pays him any mind when he does this to a player:

The FA just ignore it, and ensure all youtube videos are immediately taken down. Except for Asian ones of course.

Last year Arsenal played Bolton at home September 11, and came away with a 4-1 win with Song, Koscielny, Chamahk and ‘Only scores when it doesn’t matter’ Vela potting the goals. Johan Elmander, now gone from Bolton, potted their lone strike and Gary Cahill had been sent off in the match, while Arsenal maintained their unbeaten run to start the season. The season was looking bright for Arsenal at the time, which was a stark contrast in the return fixture late in the season. Arsenal were struggling to hold a top four position in the table, and team leader Samir Nasri fluffed his strikes while in alone twice and assured Arsenal a Champions League qualifier game and giving Gooners around the world even more misery to digest. Bolton had gone to the FA Cup final last year, getting drubbed 5-0 by Stoke City and went on to finish the season in 14th place.

In the summer Bolton parted ways with Elmander, Tamir Cohen, Joey O’Brien, Matthew Taylor and the oddly name Jlloyd Samuel. They signed Nigel Reo-Coker and Darren Pratley on  free transfers, and bought Chris Eagles, Tyrone Mears, and Daniel N’Gog. Bolton also signed Tuncay and Dedryck Boyata on loan from Wolfsburg and Manchester City respectively, as well as Chelsea young winger Gael Kakuta. Bolton started the season on a high, defeating QPR in London 4-0 and ended the first week on top of the table. That was short lived however as they have gone winless since, losing to both Manchester clubs, Liverpool and Norwich, and are now tied for last in the Premier League with West Bromwich with a goal differential of -5. On Tuesday Bolton went to Aston Villa in a Carling Cup match and came away with a solid 2-0 win and they will be hoping to build on against an Arsenal squad that is short on confidence and defensive stability.

While Arsenal are surely better than their current 17th place and -8 differential suggests, the same can be said for Bolton. Jussi Jääskeläinen is a good keeper but has had a horrid start to the season (just ask my fantasy squad) and he can only get better than he has been. Owen Coyle loves playing the 4-4-2 and will likely play it again on Saturday, despite him having a squad better suited for the 4-5-1 especially on the expansive Emirates pitch. The defense will be known commodities that we are accustomed to seeing with Cahill and Knight at centerback, flanked by Robinson and either Steinsson or Boyata. On the right in midfield will be the trickery and pace of Chris Eagles and he will surely give our left-back trouble all game, while Martin Petrov will play the left and his lack of defensive ability should give Walcott and Gervinho ample room to run at Robinson. Former Arsenal youngster Fabrice Muamba will start in the middle and does a good job of breaking plays up and not much else. He will be likely paired with American Stuart Holden who played well versus Aston Villa in his first game back from a serious broken leg injury last year and is a very tidy player. Perennial pest Kevin Davies and his elbows will start upfront and will combine with Ivan Klasnic*, who has a team high 3 goals this campaign so far. Off the bench Coyle will be able to call on the pacy David N’Gog, the creative Tuncay as forward options. Kakuta impressed mid-week and will worry our defense with his pace and power off the flank if used, and Reo-Coker is a solid, if unspectacular option in the midfield if Holden does not start.

*EDIT: As Jay Desai kindly pointed out in the comments, Klasnic is suspended for a straight red card v Norwich, so either N’Gog or Tuncay will start.

Bolton are what you expect, statistically. They are 3rd in cards shown, with 11 yellows and one red, where Arsenal are first with 13 yellows and 3 reds. Bolton average 48% possession in their matches, good for 12th and their pass completion rate is 74% which is 14th in the league. Arsenal meanwhile are 2nd in possession at 56% and 4th in pass completion at 84%. Surprisingly Arsenal have won more Ariel duals than Bolton, 55% to 51%. Bolton concede a high number of shots a game, at 17 while Arsenal concede 14 a game. Another issue Bolton have had this season is they only average 9 shots a game and are last at drawing fouls, which for a club reliant on set pieces, is very troubling.

Arsenal team news has Benayoun out with a thigh strain and Djourou out with a hamstring problem. Wenger confirmed that Tomas Rosicky will be back for the first time since Manchester United, and Ramsey and Sagna will be available as well. Abou Diaby is still three of four weeks away from being available and Vermaelen has over two weeks left, hopefully to be ready after the international break. There was no news about Jack Wilshere who is still likely in a boot and Squillaci is apparently a week away from being fit, which I’m sure will thrill the masses. So that means the line up will look something like:

Szczesny

Sagna    Mertesacker    Koscielny   Santos

Song

Ramsey  Arteta

Walcott              RVP         Gervinho

Subs: Flaps, Gibbs, Miquel, Coquelin, Rosicky, Arshavin, Chamahk

I personally would prefer Gibbs over Santos, and have been highly underwhelmed by the change from a 2-1 to 1-2 in midfield, but unless Wenger goes for a 4-4-2 like in the Carling Cup, we will likely see the diamond shape once more. Arsenal really need to start pressing from the front again as teams have broken through our midfield with great ease, and if Bolton are smart they will put pressure on our defenders and force us to lose the ball high up the pitch and not allow Arteta and Song time to turn and find the forwards.Here is a nice snapshot of Arsenal and Bolton’s strengths and weaknesses so far this season:

via www.whoscored.com

If that doesn’t make you wary of Bolton tomorrow, I honestly don’t know what will. Both clubs need this win to turn their rough starts to the season around, and it should be an aggressive and likely card-filled match.

The game begins 10am EST/7am PST and will be shown on FOX Soccer in the USA and on Setanta in Canada. You can also catch it on delay after midnight on Foxsoccer.tv if you are cannot catch it live.

Arsenal need the three points in a bad way. Come on you Gunners!

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Category: Arsenal News