

Arsenal – Leeds (FA Cup) Preview
By: Martin | January 7th, 2011
Position: 5th (Championship), 11-8-7 (41 points, +3 goal differential)
Away Form: 5-5-3 (+2 goal differential)
Recent Form: WDDDL
Well, we kick off our FA Cup campaign tomorrow as we host Leeds United in what could be a deceptively tricky fixture.
Leeds, of course, are one of the traditional big footballing clubs –they’ve won the first division 3 times, most recently in 1992, reached 4 FA Cup finals in a span of 8 years in the late 60s and early 70s. They reached the European Cup final in 1975, and the Champions League semifinal in 2001. And we have some history with them in this competition – Leeds beat Arsenal 1-0 in the 1972 FA Cup final to deny Arsenal back-to-back titles (a game featuring a young shippersnapper names Pat Rice for the Gunners).

In more modern times, though, they are probably best known as a cautionary tale for fiscal mismanagement. Much of Leeds’s success in the late 90s and early 00s was bought with essentially borrowed money, and they put themselves in a position where they had no way of breaking even if they did not qualify for the Champions League. When they finished 5th and lost that revenue stream, they had to sell Rio Ferdinand to make up the difference. The manager quit over this, the new manager was less successful, they had to sell more players to service their loans, they got even worse, etc., etc. In 2004, just 3 years after being in the final 4 of the Champions League, Leeds was relegated. In 2007, due largely to a 10-point penalty for financial irresponsibility, Leeds were once again relegated to League One. It was the first time Leeds had been in the third tier.
But they bottomed out, hired a decent manager in Simon Grayson, and started the arduous task of climbing back up. Leeds is somewhat fortunate in that is the main club in one of England’s largest cities (4th-largest, to be exact, slightly less populous than Liverpool and more populous than: Manchester, Sheffield, or Bristol, and WAY more populous than towns like Newcastle and Sunderland), and so have a very loyal and sizeable fan base, much more so than most lower-division teams. While they have generally fallen short of selling out 40,000 seat Elland Road, they do routinely draw 25000-30000 fans to their matches, so their matchday income is pretty substantial. Leeds are often referred to as the “sleeping giant” of English football, and it’s pretty easy to see why — with that fanbase and essentially being the only team in a large city, there’s no reason that with decent on and off-pitch management they should not be a side which should be in the top-flight year in and year out.
And they seem to be on their way. They finished 2nd in League One last season, and currently sit 5th in the 24-team Championship, looking a real threat to earn promotion in their first year back in the Second Division. Grayson is a good manager that has built a very solid team, and while they have had several high-profile defections to the Premiership (Jermaine Beckford scored 31 goals for them last season, and can’t find the goal for love or money for Everton this season; they sold highly-touted young midfielder Fabian Delph to Aston Villa for a lot of money), they have kept a very solid group of core players and brought in some useful additions.

Starting at the back, they have a Premiership-quality keeper in Kasper Schmeichel (son of Peter). Three seasons ago Kasper was playing well as Manchester City’s # 1 keeper at the age of 21, but injuries, the emergence of Joe Hart, and the purchase of Shay Given resulted in him being sent off. But he’s developing nicely and is a very solid keeper. Lower division veteran Paul Connolly is at right-back, former England U19 man Ben Parker will be on the left. Manning the middle will likely be former Sunderland and Wolves defender Neill Collins and former Bolton defender Andy O’Brien. Or possibly longtime Ipswich player and team captain Richard Naylor. They also have Alex (son of Steve) Bruce at center back as well.
In midfield, we’ll need to watch out for Max Gradel. The 23 year-old just received his first full cap for the Ivory Coast national team, which is pretty impressive. He’s scoed 8 goals in just 18 starts, so he’s fully capable of popping up and causing defenses trouble. We’ll also need to keep an eye on Jonny Howson — the Leeds native was part of a very promising scholar class at the Leeds academy including Aaron Lennon, James Milner, and Danny Rose (just typing that name made me cringe). But whereas those guys chose to leave their boyhood club to the greener pastures of the Premiership, Howson chose to stay. And he’s currently the longest-serving player at the club, impressive since he’s just 22. He’s really bosses the midfield for them this season, tallying 7 goals and 4 assists. We always criticize players for being mercenaries, so you have a tip a cap to the guy — a talented teenage player would surely have had opportunities to go to bigger sides, but he chose to stay with Leeds in the third division to get them promoted, and you know he’ll be a legend if he continues his excellent play and earns the club promotion to the Premiership. Scotland international Robert Snodgrass will man one of the wings, and the midfield will likely be rounded out with Bradley Johnson or Neil Kilkenny.

Up top the real dangerman is Argentine Luciano Becchio — the former Barcelona youth product has already scored 12 times this season and will be the focal point of Leeds’s attack. He’ll probably be complimented by former Rangers and Cardiff striker (and Scotland international) Ross McCormack.
It’s a good side, solid at the back and dangerous up front. And if you’re saying “Oh, come on, Martin, knock it off with your ‘this could be a dangerous match’ spiel — it’s a lower division side at home,” I would just say that while you certainly have a point — Arsenal should ALWAYS beat lower-division sides at the Emirates — we will be rotating the squad quite a bit, and Leeds won’t, since they don’t play again for another week. And I would go on to point out that Leeds beat Manchester United at Old Trafford in this same round of the FA Cup last season, which earned them a 4th Round trip to White Hart Lane. But they drew with Spurs there to earn a replay before falling in the return fixture. So if you’re thinking they are just going to enjoy the day out and/or be intimidated by the atmosphere, think again — they’re coming into this one looking for another scalp, and we’ll have to play well to avoid that happening.
Wojo
Eboue-Koscielny-Squillaci-Gibbs
Eastmond-Denilson
Bendtner-Rosicky-Arshavin
Chamakh
Bench: Flaps, Djourou, Clichy, Ramsey, Cesc, Nasri, Walcott
I think Wenger keeps his tradition of having his # 2 be his domestic cup keeper, so Wojo will be in action. We have an enforced change at right-back with Sagna’s suspension, which gives Eboue a run-out in the first-team. Gibbs is back in the squad and will either start this match or the Carling Cup match mid-week, but I suspect it will be this one. And I think Squillaci comes into the squad for Djourou. Denilson will almost certainly get a start for one of the two withdrawn midfielders, and I suspect Wenger will want to rotate the other spot, too, since Wilshere and Song have logged a lot of minutes lately. So I’m guessing it will be Eastmond getting the start, with Rambo possibly making his long-awaited return in an Arsenal shirt. And then I think Wenger will completely change the players up front, and run out the group that played against Wigan. That should be a strong enough lineup, and leaves us with plenty of depth on the bench.
Wenger has said that both van Persie and Nasri picked up minor knocks against Manchester City, but didn’t seem too worried about either one of them. I suspect they’ll both be rested for this one, although I could see Nasri coming off the bench if we need him. Hopefully both will be fit and ready for Ipswich mid-week.
And that’s about it, really — given our success in the Carling Cup, it would sure be nice to press on in this one as well, and we really should be able to go out there and do it tomorrow.
Come on Arsenal.
*************
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