Arsenal – Leeds Preview

Well, as Homey mentioned yesterday, I’m back here blogging hopefully pretty regularly. And first up is our 3rd Round FA Cup tie with Leeds at the Emirates tomorrow:

As you probably remember, we actually played Leeds in the same round of the FA Cup. Some brilliant, no doubt dashingly handsome blogger wrote a preview of that match, and wrote as follows:

Leeds, of course, are one of the traditional big footballing clubs –they’ve won the first division 3 times, most recently in 1992, reached 4 FA Cup finals in a span of 8 years in the late 60s and early 70s. They reached the European Cup final in 1975, and the Champions League semifinal in 2001. And we have some history with them in this competition – Leeds beat Arsenal 1-0 in the 1972 FA Cup final to deny Arsenal back-to-back titles (a game featuring a young whippersnapper named Pat Rice for the Gunners).

In more modern times, though, they are probably best known as a cautionary tale for fiscal mismanagement. Much of Leeds’s success in the late 90s and early 00s was bought with essentially borrowed money, and they put themselves in a position where they had no way of breaking even if they did not qualify for the Champions League. When they finished 5th and lost that revenue stream, they had to sell Rio Ferdinand to make up the difference. The manager quit over this, the new manager was less successful, they had to sell more players to service their loans, they got even worse, etc., etc. In 2004, just 3 years after being in the final 4 of the Champions League, Leeds was relegated. In 2007, due largely to a 10-point penalty for financial irresponsibility, Leeds were once again relegated to League One. It was the first time Leeds had been in the third tier.

But they bottomed out, hired a decent manager in Simon Grayson, and started the arduous task of climbing back up. Leeds is somewhat fortunate in that is the main club in one of England’s largest cities (4th-largest, to be exact, slightly less populous than Liverpool and more populous than: Manchester, Sheffield, or Bristol, and WAY more populous than towns like Newcastle and Sunderland), and so have a very loyal and sizeable fan base, much more so than most lower-division teams. While they have generally fallen short of selling out 40,000 seat Elland Road, they do routinely draw 25000-30000 fans to their matches, so their matchday income is pretty substantial. Leeds are often referred to as the “sleeping giant” of English football, and it’s pretty easy to see why — with that fanbase and essentially being the only team in a large city, there’s no reason that with decent on and off-pitch management they should not be a side which should be in the top-flight year in and year out.

And they seem to be on their way. They finished 2nd in League One in 2009-2010, earning promotion, and 7th in the Championship last season, one spot out of the promotion play-offs. is a good manager that has built a very solid team, and while they have had several high-profile defections to the Premiership (Jermaine Beckford scored 31 goals for them last season, and can’t find the goal for love or money for Everton this season; they sold highly-touted young midfielder Fabian Delph to Aston Villa for a lot of money), they have kept a very solid group of core players and brought in some useful additions.

Last year, Leeds very nearly did us in. They converted a penalty to take a 1-0 lead, and we had to bring on Cesc as a substitute late on. Cesc converted a last-minute penalty to salvage a 1-1 draw, and then we won the replay 3-1 behind goals from Nasri, Sagna, and van Persie. The year before that, Leeds knocked Man United out of the FA Cup with a 1-0 victory at Old Trafford. They’re dangerous.

They finished 7th place last season, just out of the promotion playoffs, and look to be in the hunt again this season, sitting 8th but just one point behind 5th place Reading.

There are some differences between this year’s team and last year’s model. Keeper Schmeichel is gone to Leicester City, and star midfielder/attacker Gradel is gone to St. Etienne in Ligue 1. And they have some injury woes — most notably, captain Jonny Howson, a key midfield presence, is out. Winger Robert Snodgrass, who has tallied 8 goals and 9 assists for Leeds this season, is also out. But they still have firepower — forward Ross McCormack, a Scottish international, already has 11 goals this season, and Argentine Luciano Becchio, while he has struggled this season coming off of ankle surgery, has scored more than 50 goals for Leeds since arriving in 2008. At the back, defenders Tom Lees and Alex Bruce (Steve’s son), are doubtful, and vice-captain Patrick Kisnorbo is out for the season, so those injuries may lead to disorganization that we can exploit.

As for us, we’re pretty threadbare at the back, as you know. Although Sagna has been back in training, he’s not available. Santos, Gibbs, and Jenkinson are all still out. Vermaelen is also still out. Djourou is suspended. We do still have Koscielny, Mertesacker, Miquel, and Squillaci, but you wonder if Wenger will try to rotate out guys like Koscielny and Mertesacker for the domestic cup, even though we don’t have a match mid-week. Reports are that Nico Yennaris has been training with the first-team, so I wonder if he won’t see some time at right-back.

We’re pretty healthy in midfield, but I do think Wenger will rotate the midfield here. Ramsey in particular has looked very tired the last couple of matches, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him not start this one. Expect to see guys like Coquelin and Rosicky get a lot of time in this one. Out wide, I think we’ll see The OC and Benayoun, or possibly Arshavin. Theo played very poorly against Fulham, and was clearly still feeling the effects of his illness, so I see no reason to start him. Gervinho has already left to join up with the Ivory Coast squad for the ACN, so he’s unavailable.

Up front, van Persie has apparently been given a vacation and is in Dubai hanging out with Diego Maradona, so I can’t imagine we’ll see him involved. Park is fit and hasn’t played in a while, and apparently Chamakh is available for this one and will not leave to join up with the Morocco side until afterward. Oh yeah — there’s also some old guy that just joined the team, I guess he could be involved as well.

On the Henry thing, it’s cool that he’s back. He’s my all-time favorite player, and on some level it’s thrilling to see him back in red and white (well, Arsenal red and white) again. But the bottom line to me, is that he’s back for one reason and one reason only — to help Arsenal win matches. As longtime readers may remember, I was a Red Bulls season ticket holder the season before last and watched a fair few Red Bulls matches last season as well, so I’m more familiar with the state of his game than most. And while he’s still a good player, he really is not nearly the powerhouse that lit up Highbury for so many years. He doesn’t have anywhere near the pace or athleticism he used to, even by MLS standards, and so has to rely on skill and guile a lot more than he did in his heyday. He can’t create chances for himself on the ball like he used to be able to do, so the rest of the team will need to step up.

I think he can help us, but I do worry about expectations being a little too high, and this being a move driven more by nostalgia and sentiment more than an honest assessment of the best way for Arsenal to win. The other worrying aspect of this, for me, is that although he has said all the right things about just being here as a role player, etc., we don’t really have any precedent for Henry being happy when he’s not the focal point of the attack. It will be interesting to see if he can make that adjustment and learn to embrace squad player status. We’ll see.

Here’s my best guess at a lineup:

Wojo

Yennaris – Mertesacker – Squillaci – Miquel

Coquelin – Rosicky

The OC – Benayoun – Arshavin

Henry

Bench: Almunia, Koscielny, Song, Walcott, Ozyakup, Chamakh, Park

Honestly, who the hell knows. Even though Wenger usually likes to rest the first-choice keeper in domestic cup competitions, I had Wojo playing because Mannone is on loan and I believe Flaps is still injured. If Flaps is healthy, he’ll play. But if not, I just don’t think Wenger goes with Almunia if he can avoid it.

As I mentioned, apparently Yennaris has been training with the first team, and I think he gets the start at right back. I think either Koscielny or Mertesacker will be rested — I picked Kos to get the rest and Per to start. I had Squillaci alongside him and Miquel out left, but they could be reversed. I suppose someone like Daniel Boateng or Martin Angha could potentially be involved, but I don’t think they’re quite ready for that step up yet.

As I said, in midfield the issue is more resting tired players than dealing with injuries. I can’t see Ramsey starting, and either Rosicky or Yossi could start in the advanced role. I picked Yossi, but it could be Rosicky. I think Coquelin will spell Song, and I think a big question is who else will be in the withdrawn role. Could Arteta stay in the squad? Could Eastmond get a start? All possibilities. But I picked Rosicky to get the start there. It’s not his preferred role, but he’s done it before, and he’s smart enough, and tidy enough in possession, to not be a liability there.

Up front, Wenger has said that Henry will be involved, but is not fit enough to go 90 minutes. That could mean either (a) Henry starts and is subbed off after around 60-65 minutes; or (b) Henry comes on after 60-65 minutes as a substitute. I opted for the former, but it could easily be the latter. Chamakh could very well get a start, and we may even be treated to the rare Park start — Wenger has started Park regularly in the Carling Cup this season, so it wouldn’t be unprecedented.

Another option could be a 4-4-2, with Coquelin, Rosicky, Benayoun, and either Arshavin or The OC starting in midfield, and 2 out of the 3 of Chamakh, Park, and Henry starting. It wouldn’t be totally unprecedented — Park and Chamakh started the last Carling Cup match against Manchester City. We’ll see.

It’s hard to really say what to expect out of this one. We’re at home, against a lower division side, so it’s a match we should expect to win. On the other hand, we’ll be playing a lot of second-teamers who are not used to playing together, against a very motivated Leeds team, so it certainly won’t be easy. The FA Cup is our best shot at winning a trophy this season. They made the 4th round draw today, and, if we beat Leeds, we’ll play Aston Villa at home. They’re a top division side, so in some sense it’s a tough draw. But it’s at home, and they’re having a down season, so it’s certainly winnable. Manchester City is out of the field after losing to Manchester United today, so if we could get to the Round of 16, who knows what could happen. But getting knocked out and being able to focus on shoring up a finish in the top 4 wouldn’t be the end of the world, either.

Oh, and the annual “Kalou to Arsenal” rumor has happened. The Daily Fail is reporting that Kalou, who is out of the contract in the summer, has been unable to come to terms with Chelsea on a new deal, and thus Chelsea is looking to offload him for cheap. They report that we’ve offered 3 million for him. Kalou has been a long-rumored Arsenal target, enough so that I think Wenger genuinely is interested. Whenever I’ve seen him, I haven’t been too impressed, and he hasn’t played that much at all for Chelsea this season (4 starts and 4 substitute appearances). But his numbers over the last 4 seasons are actually pretty solid:

2010-2011: 22 starts, 19 substitute appearances, 13 goals, 6 assists
2009-2010: 21 starts, 16 substitute appearances, 12 goals, 3 assists
2008-2009: 30 starts, 13 substitute appearances, 10 goals, 10 assists
2007-2008: 32 starts, 14 substitute appearances, 9 goals, 10 assists
2006-2007: 25 starts, 33 substitute appearances, 9 goals, 10 assists

So his average over those 5 seasons is: 26 starts, 19 substitute appearances, 10.6 goals, 7.8 assists. Those numbers are undeniably pretty solid, and for a guy who’s not a true striker but can play on either wing, and stays healthy, 3 million starts to sound like a very good price indeed.

Anyway, 95% of these stories are bullcrap, this is probably no exception. But let’s hope for a win and moving on in the FA Cup, to get some positive momentum back going into the Swansea match this weekend.

Come on Arsenal.

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Category: Arsenal News, FA Cup, Fixtures, Preview