Arsenal – Manchester United Preview

Manchester United

Position 2nd, 15-3-3 (48 points, +32 goal differential)

Away Record: 7-2-1, +13 goal differential

Recent Form: WWLLW

Last Meeting: I don’t think there was a last meeting, was there? I certainly can’t remember one. Yup, no recent past to worry about . . . Move along, nothing to see here.

Back in action tomorrow in as we square off against our old rivals.

Almost 2 years ago (God, I’ve been doing this too long), I did a little round-up of the history of this rivalry from an “Arsenal’s greatest hits” perspective, so if you want some positive vibes, you may want to go check that out. Maybe that will cheer you up.

Because other than last year’s fairly shocking 1-0 victory (that was in the midst of a stretch where we couldn’t seem to beat anyone, and Manchester United were cruising on their way to another league title), there isn’t a lot of recent history to celebrate if you’re an Arsenal fan. The 8-2 match was obviously humiliating, and I’m sure seared into the memory of every Arsenal fan for some time to come. The Gibbs slip. The Diaby own goal. And so on and so forth. It’s fair to say that Alex Ferguson seems to have found our number recently. And the results back that up — Manchester United have won 7 of the 9 last meetings with Arsenal in all competitions.

Can we do anything to change that tomorrow? If I’m being honest, I’d have to say it’s doubtful. Looking for a silver lining, I’d say that we were certainly on a worse run of form last season in this fixture, and rose to the occasion in front of home fans, winning 1-0 on Ramsey’s winner. And United haven’t set the world on fire, losing to Newcastle and Blackburn in recent weeks.

But I’d also note that United are the best team in the league away from home, and they’ll be up for this one, too. They have the second-best attack in the league in the season, behind only Manchester City, and the third best defensive unit, behind only Manchester City and Liverpool. They’ve got some injury problems of their own — Fletcher, Cleverley, Anderson, Young, and Vidic will all miss out, and Welbeck is doubtful as well. But most of their big mainstays — Rooney, Ferdinand, Nani, Evra, Giggs, Scholes, Carrick, Valencia — are fit and rarin’ to go. Regular readers know how much I hate the “blame the referee” mentality, but for those interested in such things, the referee for tomorrow’s match is Mike Dean, and we have not won a match in the last 10 league matches refereed by Dean (he also took charge of the Carling Cup final last year).

Our injury problems are of a much more serious nature. Our four full-backs (Gibbs, Santos, Sagna, Jenkinson) are all still out. And none have imminent returns — at his press conference yesterday, Wenger said Santos was still a couple of months away, and the other three are still at least 2-3 weeks away from a return. So we’re looking at mid-February, at least, until we have a fit full-back back in the squad. Sigh.

And the problem is exacerbated by the fact that our stand-in full-backs have injuries, too. Coquelin is out with his hamstring issue for at least another week or two. Vermaelen may play, as he faces a fitness test today, but Wenger said it would be “a good surprise” if that were to happen, which leads me to believe that the expectation is that we’ll have to do without tomorrow. We’re also missing a trio of midfielders — Wilshere and Diaby, of course, and also Arteta is still out for another couple of weeks with his calf issue. We’ve become accustomed to playing without the former pair this season, but we’ve become very dependent upon Arteta to keep possession and link up the backline with the forward players, and many people cited his absence as a key reason why Swansea were able to win and keep the ball us so effectively.

Finally, Thierry Henry is doubtful for this one with a calf injury of his own. As much as we would like to see Henry coming off the bench and squaring off against the hated Mancs (especially a team that involved guys Giggs, Scholes, Ferdinand, and Rooney) for old time’s sake, the reality is that (a) Henry was very ineffective against Swansea, so it’s still unclear how much he can really offer us in terms of game-changing cameos; and (b) we have him on loan from another club, and it would be the height of hypocrisy, given how much Wenger (and us) rail against international squads’ disregard for players’ health because they don’t have to deal with the long-term consequences of any such injuries, for us to throw an injured player we have on loan into a crucial match. For that reason, as much as the romantic in me would like to see it, I doubt we’ll see him in the squad tomorrow.

Here’s my best guess at a lineup:

Wojo

Djourou – Mertesacker – Koscielny – Miquel

Song – Rosicky

Walcott – Ramsey – Arshavin

van Persie

Bench: Almunia, Squillaci, The OC, Benayoun, Henry, Park

Wojo in goal, obviously. The backline seems fairly straightforward if Vermaelen can’t play. Koscielny and Mertesacker are our best fit center backs, and Djourou can (sort of) play out right, with Miquel moving out left. If Vermaelen can play, I suspect he’ll move out left and Miquel will move to the bench.

I know I and everyone else have banged on about this ad nauseum in recent weeks, but it’s a real issue for us. It’s not a criticism of Djourou and Miquel, necessarily, because they are being forced to play out of position. And in many ways, their skill sets just do not match up with what you really look for in a full-back. Neither of them are great crossers of the ball, although Miquel has whipped in a few pretty impressive balls in recent weeks. The two main things, though, are that: (a) both players really are quite slow, and have very little recovery pace; and (b) their unfamiliarity with the position displays itself several times per match when they get pulled out of position leaving us very vulnerable. United have made a cottage industry in recent years of hitting us with quick-strike counterattacks down the flanks, and I hate to sound pessimistic, but I’d be very surprised if that didn’t rear its head tomorrow as well. It also means they don’t come forward and support the attack as much as I would like, and this forces the forward wing players to drop further back to press and win the ball, which dulls the effectiveness of those players (Theo, in particular, sees so much of what makes him a good player diminish when he has to drop that far back and can’t try to play off the last man’s shoulder and get behind the backline).

Elsewhere, the Arteta injury impacts the midfield as well, obviously. Even though he’s had a couple of bad matches lately, I have to think Ramsey will start in the advanced role. Song is pencilled in in the withdrawn role. So the main question, then, is who starts alongside Song. It was Benayoun against Swansea, but he was a passenger and Rosicky was much more involved when he came on, so I give the nod to Super Tom today and hope his intelligence makes an impact on the side.

On the wings, I think Walcott will start on the right. And I think Arshavin will keep his spot on the left, as well. Although it wouldn’t stun me if The OC got a look, or perhaps even Yossi, although I think it much more likely that both players could get a look as a late substitute. And van Persie starts up front, obviously. With Chamakh gone, and Henry probably injured, I think that probably means Park makes the bench and may see a substitute appearance. If so, it would be his first Premiership appearance.

Arsenal – Manchester United is always a big match, of course, because of the stature of the two sides and the animosity between teams in years past. Honestly, there’s no other team in the Premiership I take more pleasure from beating. But beyond that, we just need points. We’re 10 points behind Spurs, 4 points behind Chelsea, even on points with Newcastle, and 1 point ahead of Liverpool at the moment. While Spurs play City at Middle Eastlands that morning, Chelsea play at Norwich this morning, Newcastle play at Fulham, and Liverpool play at Bolton. While those are all road matches, which are never certain, the fact is that there’s a real possibility that by the end of the day tomorrow, if we don’t win, we could find ourselves in 7th place, 7 points adrift of the top 4. And while we still have plenty of football left to play, that is, as Ulysses Everett McGill might say, “a tight spot.” One I’d just as soon avoid.

So let’s avoid that and just go beat Manchester United, shall we? Oh yes, let’s. 3 points please.

Come on Arsenal.

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Category: Arsenal News, Manchester United, Preview