Arsenal vs. Chelski and the Spuds- Can We Make A Comeback, Or Are We Screwed?

A bit too melodramatic? No, this is Arsenal!

Can we get back in the game?

Everyone loves a good comeback story. Americans, in particular, are completely fixated upon this trope. Rocky Balboa, the Major League series (back when Charlie Sheen was a serious actor. WINNING!), among many others played this story to its full effect, culminating in the 1993 mega-hit, The Sandlot, where puny little white kids (and one tall, dark, handsome pseudo-Hispanic) showed that yeah, they could play baseball too!

Well, if recent results are to go by, we might have a remarkable comeback story narrative on our hands: Arsenal FC, who have reached the Top 4 and the UCL spots for the last 14 seasons, are currently in 5th, 4 points off 4th and 10 points off 3rd, with 17 games to play, a fanbase on the brink of civil war, and a (great, legendary) manager who looks at a injury-ridden, not-that-great squad and says, “We don’t need new signings, we have Diaby!”

Diaby.

All in all, the start of 2012 has not been kind to Arsenal. I recall those long lost days of January 2011, when we were winning games, with panache and swagger- as much panache and swagger as you can afford when you beat QPR by only one goal, mind. Nevertheless, that victory over the Hoops represents our zenith so far this season, because that win took us 4th place, 2 points ahead of Chelsea, who capitulated late against Aston Villa. A nice way to end 2011 after all our troubles.

Of course, 2 days later we had a late capitulation of our own as we conceded two in the last 5 minutes to lose to Bobby Zamora’s Man-boobs and Fulham. We had a hope spot a week later when Henry returned and scored the winning goal in our 1-0 victory over Dirty, Dirty Leeds in the FA Cup- but any goodwill we gained was quickly lost this last weekend when we lost in pretty awful fashion to an impressive Swansea City. Now, on matchday 22 and with a home date with Manchester United looming this weekend, we sit 4 points behind Chelsea, who have experienced a mini-surge of form, and 10 points behind Spurs, who have been excellent nearly all season. The €30 million question is, can we catch them?

To help answer this question, I’ve separated the 3 teams (Arsenal included) into 3 separate sections, detailing the matches left for them this season and the prognosis for their future form. I can say from the get-go that catching Chelsea is doable, if we get our injured players back and get our form back on track. Catching Spurs, doe, will be an entirely different matter.

TOTTENHAM

Remaining Fixtures:

I hate you.

22/01- vs. Manchester City (A)
31/01- vs. Wigan (H)
06/02- vs. Liverpool (A)
11/02- vs. Newcastle (H)
26/02- vs. Arsenal (A)
03/03- vs. Manchester United (H)
10/03- vs. Everton (A)
17/03- vs. Stoke (H)
24/03- vs. Chelsea (A)
31/03- vs. Swansea (H)
07/04- vs. Sunderland (A)
09/04- vs. Norwich (H)
14/04- vs. Bolton (A)
21/04- vs. QPR (A)
28/04- vs. Blackburn (H)
05/05- vs. Aston Villa (A)
13/05- vs. Fulham (H)

Well, the bold typefaces don’t lie: if we are to catch up to Spurs and ensure that St. Totteringham’s Daii occurs this season, Spurs will have to drop a lot of points between January 22 and March 3. Thankfully, that period of time happens to include what is without a doubt Spurs’ toughest run of games this season. A trip to Middle Eastlands, with a little “calm before the storm” shindig at home versus Wigan, before they step on to Klanfield, followed by a home meeting with Newcastle (now with more strawberry syrup and Senegal!), then the eternal North London Derby, at the Emirates, then a home meeting with Manchester United, whom Spurs don’t have a great record against. At all. Following that, they have a couple of more games before they face Chelsea at the Bridge, their last traditionally “tough” game. Afterwards, they finish out their season with beatable games against mid-table, or worse off, teams- although Bolton and QPR away could be tricky, since those two in all likelihood will be in a cutthroat relegation scrap.
So it’s imperative that Spurs start losing and drawing for this nightmare run, starting with the trip to City this Sunday. Wigan should be easy prey, but Liverpool can beat the Spuds at home, and at the very least we’ll be treated to the bookies favorite- goalless home draw. I hear ‘Pool are quite proficient at those. Then, we can only hope Newcastle take something from the Lane, before Spurs go on and lose against us (more on that later) and United. After that, Chelsea should beat them, although they could very well draw. Anything less than a win after that Chelsea match will be a bonus for us by that point.
So, to recap, here’s the most realistic and also slightly hopeful scenario at this point: Spurs lose at City, beat Wigan, and draw at Liverpool. Then they get unlucky and draw to Newcastle, who will be buoyed at having two Senegalese strikers. Then Spurs lose against us and United. That’s 12 points dropped right there, although I suppose Spurs could just as well beat Newcastle and snatch something from us (or United.) So, more scientifically, Spurs are looking at the likelihood of losing 8 +/- points from their nightmare run. A couple of weeks later, they lose to Chelsea- 11 points dropped. Afterwards, they lose to, say, Bolton or QPR, just because they’re Spurs (not really, let’s get this straight guys: Spurs have been excellent this season). We’re looking at Spurs dropping 9-14 more points this season- that’s a realistic scenario, mind. They COULD continue their wonderful run and only lose 1-3 points from their nightmare run- and win just about every other game thereafter. And if that happens, there’s simply no way we catch Spurs this season, and we’ll have to live with having a St. Arsenalsucks Day this season. On the other hand, if Spurs catch a bit of the Bad Run Bug, particularly if they start dropping points to the other Big Boyz- I don’t think Spurs have had a run of such high-profile, high-pressure matches in the position that they’re in recent memory- these next couple of weeks, we could see them start dropping points a lot more, and make the job to overtake them much more easier for us. However, I think it’s more likely that Spurs continue with their great run than go on a bad run anytime soon- which is why my earlier prognosis of 9-14 points is about as good as we can hope for.

CHELSEA

Remaining Fixtures

If you move to Chelsea, I will destroy your 7th Audi.

21/01- vs. Norwich (A)
31/01- vs. Swansea (A)
05/02- vs. Manchester United (H)
11/02- vs. Everton (A) Napoli in midweek
25/02- vs. Bolton (H)
0303- vs. West Brom (A)
10/03- vs. Stoke (H)- Napoli in midweek
17/03- vs. Manchester City (A)
24/03- vs. Tottenham (H)
31/03- vs. Aston Villa (A)
07/04- vs. Wigan (H)
09/04- vs. Fulham (A)
14/04- vs. Newcastle (H)
21/04- vs. Arsenal (A)
28/04- vs. QPR (H)
05/05- vs. Liverpool (A)
13/05- vs. Blackburn (H)

So you’ll notice that unlike Spurs, Chelsea don’t have a big menacing run of tough games in a continuous fashion- they take on United at home on February 5, followed by a trip to Everton, a tricky fixture for Chelsea, then the away leg to Napoli in the Champions League. Easy games against Bolton, Stoke, and at West Brom follow thereafter, before they take on Napoli again, and then get a double whammy of City away and Spurs at home- those will be a tough 2.5 weeks for Chelsea. Their next tough game is at the Emirates, but that one doesn’t come until the end of April. Two weeks later, they take on Liverpool at Anfield, before closing their season at home to Blackburn. All in all, Chelsea have a much more favorably spaced and scheduled season than Spurs.
Thankfully, they’re only 4 points behind us. Which is very, very good (now if we could just overlook the fact that we were 2 points ahead of them a month ago…) Our best shots of Chelsea dropping points will come in those two spans of 2 and a half weeks when they take on Napoli home and away- the added concentration and focus of tackling such a dangerous side in Europe means that they’ll take their foot off the gas in the league, and make them susceptible to dropping points. I reckon United will take something from the Bridge, probably a win, and perhaps Everton will get something at home too. Then, after taking Napoli at home, Chelsea may falter against one of City or Spurs. So, before they even take us on late in April, it’s likely that Chelsea will have dropped 3-7 points- and that’s not even taking other potentially tricky fixtures into account, like Fulham away. Afterwards, we *should* beat them at home, and Liverpool have a great recent track record against them, so they will probably lose at Anfield too. Now, let’s not get too ahead of ourselves- Chelsea are a top side who are capable of beating any of the other top sides on their day- they are one of two teams to beat Man City in the league, after all. And they’re likely to bolster their squad this January- they’ve already added Gary Cahill, and the Hazard to Chelsea rumors have gotten stronger over the last week. Still, with a very tricky CL tie in February and March, they’re likely to drop some points over those two months, so it’s best to capitalize then.

SPARKY McUNDERDOGS ARSENAL

Remaining Fixtures

22/01- vs. Manchester United (H)
01/02- vs. Bolton (A)
04/02- vs. Blackburn (H)
11/02- vs. Sunderland (A)- Milan in midweek
26/02- vs. Tottenham (H)
03/03- vs. Liverpool (A)- Milan in midweek
10/03- vs. Newcastle (H)
17/03- vs. Everton (A)
24/03- vs. Aston Villa (H)
31/03- vs. QPR (A)
07/04- vs. Manchester City (H)
09/04- vs. Wolves (A)
14/04- vs. Wigan (H)
21/04- vs. Chelsea (H)
28/04- vs. Stoke (A)
05/05- vs. Norwich (H)
13/05- vs. West Brom (A)

Of course, all of Tottenham’s and Chelsea’s hypothetical woes mean nothing, if we don’t kick our asses back into high gear. The fact is that we’re playing like ass right now, and that’s due to our (once again) cruel luck with injuries, inadequate squad players, and lack of overall confidence and form with our fit players. Sound familiar? We have Manchester United at home this coming week, a fixture that is actually slightly favorable to us- if you recall, we actually beat the Red Devils at home last season, right smack in the middle of our Spring Collapse. And United are going through a bit of an injury crisis of their own as well. If we can get some of our players back, I think we might eke out a win. And that’s the big question regarding our form from now until May- will our injured players get back on time? As of right now, the likes of Vermaelen, Arteta, Sagna, Wilshere, Gibbs, and Coquelin are supposed to be back for the first leg against Milan, in mid-February, although none of those have a big chance of being back against United. Our next three games against United are at Bolton, against Blackburn, and at Sunderland- all three winnable games that could restore confidence back in the squad (although Sunderland away remains a tricky fixture to us.) Of course, we could do poorly against those three in the coming weeks, and our season could get derailed even further. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. If we can get through those 3 games with 9 points and have the aforementioned injured players back healthy for the Milan tie, that would be a major bonus for us. It would even soften the blow of Wenger not buying a player this January, which is what it seems will end up happening. Following the 1st leg of the Milan tie, doe, we have an absolutely crucial period of 3 weeks- we take on Spurs at home, then Liverpool away, return to the Emirates to (hopefully) finish off Milan, and then take on Franegal- err, I mean Newcastle at home. That span of games could very well define our season. First of all, it will determine if we advance any further in the CL. Second, and arguably most importantly, it could very well define where we end up in the league this season. The fact is, if we don’t beat Spurs, I don’t see a scenario where we end up overtaking them at the end of the season- after they face us, their only tough remaining fixtures would be United at home and Chelsea away, and if their form would be so good to beat us at home, again, then they’re more than capable of taking something from United and Chelsea. And the mere fact of beating us would open up a further 3 points between us and them- the worst case scenario should that happen would be 13 points, or worse. And with 12 games remaining, it would be pretty insurmountable, especially given the quality of Spurs’ opposition for the rest of the season. Based on the assumption that we won’t be any closer than 5 points ahead of us by then, a draw wouldn’t do us any good either. As for Liverpool and Newcastle, they represent our main opposition from below right now and it’s likely they’ll be in the same spots by the time we face them. Losing to them would probably mean we drop further down the table to 6th or 7th, and put an even bigger dent in our Top 4 hopes. Following those fixtures, we take on City at home in early April, before closing that month with home meeting with Chelsea and a daunting away trip to Stoke. Giving the fragile quality of this team, I bet we’ll drop points in one of those fixtures.

So, where does this place us? Looking at it in the best case scenario, we’ll beat United this Sunday. We’ll pick up 7-9 points out of those 3 games between this Sunday and the Milan 1st leg, beat Spurs, and collect 3-4 points out of the Liverpool/Newcastle double whammy, with the Milan 2nd leg right in the middle. We’ll do well to pick up 9 points for the rest of March, before likely drawing or losing to City at home to start off April. We really should be beating Wolves and Wigan afterwards, before beating or drawing Chelsea and then stumbling against Stoke, and then finishing our season with 6 points against Norwich and West Brom. That’s 37-43 points right there in the best case scenario, taking our points tally to between 73-79 points- enough to at least secure 5th, I reckon, and make a strong shout for 4th…

So, the question remains: can we catch Spurs (and Chelsea)?

Well, to be fair…

Maybe?

To make my upcoming point much more clearer…

17 games remaining, 51 points at play

ARSENAL: Best case scenario- 8-14 points dropped, 37-43 points gained. TOTAL: 73-79 points
CHELSEA: best case (realistic) scenario- 9-12 points dropped, 39-42 points gained: TOTAL: 79-82 points
SPURS: Best case (realistic) scenario- 9-14 points dropped, 37-42 points gained. TOTAL: 83-88 points

So… in the very best case scenario I outlined, we end up level on points with Chelsea and 4 points behind Spurs. Anything worse than that, and we end up definitely 5th. Again, this is only one point of view, and the points dropped and gained margins are very subjective. I only took matches against teams of equal value into account for the points that Spurs and Chelsea might drop- for example, it’s entirely possible that West Brom might shock and beat Chelsea at home, and Blackburn do the same to Spurs. That would increase the number of points dropped by those two, and increase our chances of overtaking them. It’s just that that isn’t likely to happen, just while it’s not likely that Bolton or Wolves shock us. So when I say realistic, I mean the circumstances, on paper, allow for the likes of Spurs, Chelsea, and Arsenal to drop points.

In any case, it’s not looking very likely that we overtake Chelsea for 4th, much less Spurs. And to sound even worse, we historically have crappy springs- here are our points tally with 17 matches to go over the last 3 seasons:

2008/09: 34 points
2009/10: 30 points
2010/11: 25 points

Ouch. this season draws the most parallels from 2008/09, when we were in a similar struggle to finish 4th. Even then, we only collected 34 points from the position that we’re in right now, and our eventual 4th place finish was definitely helped by Aston Villa’s meltdown. The following two seasons, our points total was even less, although we were never in real danger of falling out the Top 4 in those two seasons.

Yikes. This is without a doubt, Wenger’s biggest challenge at Arsenal, and it could just be his last. The way things are looking right now, we have a small chance of catching up to Chelsea, and a small, almost non-existent chance of catching up to Spurs. Of course, had we beaten Fulham and Swansea, we would be 2 points ahead of Chelsea, and 4 points behind Spurs- and our position to finish 4th or even 3rd would be much, much more favorable. But those 2 losses have definitely taken a bit of wind out of our sails, and it will require a massive effort from Wenger and the team this spring that has not been seen from in recent seasons. I will reiterate that we still need new signings to bolster the squad, but of course, that isn’t likely to happen. Off the top of my head, I gauge our chances of leaping Chelsea at 40%, and Spurs at 5%. Not good at all. Our only hope is that these two lose the matches against equal opposition, and go on a bad run of form. At the same time, we can’t afford to drop any more points, either- it’s win after win after from here on out. Anything less than that and we’ll end up 5th or worse. By the start of April we should be fairly aware of were we will end up- Spurs will have gone through their Nightmare Run, and Chelsea will have gone through both sets of 2.5 Weeks of Hell, and we will have gone through our mini-run as well. It’s possible that our form will pick up, and those two’s will drop, making the situation much more brighter and promising.

But as things stand right now, we have a hell of a battle in our hands, and the light at the end of the tunnel is pretty damn small.

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