AZ Preview; Walcott Out 3-4 Weeks

By: Martin | October 19th, 2009

Champions League matchup tomorrow against AZ Alkmaar, and for some reason I can’t look at that name without thinking of Azkaban prison from Harry Potter. When I imagine what their home pitch is like, I picture it being a desolate little island in the middle of the cold sea. When you finally get there, with your ticket, you’re led to your horrible, cramped little bleacher seat (amongst their fans, who I imagine are probably all Death Eaters) by a Dementor usher, and if you sit in the wrong seat or yell too loudly, the Dementor usher quickly comes to your seat and does that face-sucking thing, and leaves you a drooling vegetable with no soul. And I would guess, being in that state, you would just automatically start rooting for Manchester United or Chelsea, which would be a horrible fate indeed.

Oh. I also suppose you want some actual “facts” or “information” about AZ, not just my bizarre Harry Potter fantasy world of what they must be like based on the simple fact that their name is kind of like something I read about in a book. Sigh…fine.

AZ are the defending Eredivisie champs, but haven’t been quite as successful so far this season, currently sitting 6th in the table, with 5 wins and 5 losses in their 10 matches. However, they have been pretty formidable at home, winning 3 out of 4 and outscoring their opponents by a margin of almost 2 goals per game. Last season, they had the best home record in the Eredivisie, winning 14 of 17 home fixtures and outscoring their opponents 38-7. All time, they have played 34 home matches in UEFA competitions. And they have lost…once (to Everton a few years ago). Their home stadium is quite small by European standards, holding a little more than 17,000 supporters.

Generally speaking, I find the smaller venues to be much tougher places to play than the big, sparkly new stadiums. The fans that get those tickets tend to be die-hard supporters, and those stadiums are usually older and put the fans very close to the field, which can unsettle visiting clubs a bit.

Make no mistake–this is not an easy place to go into and win, and I really think this match is going to be quite a bit tougher than most pundits and Arsenal fans think. Especially given our rotation and injury issues (see below), a win would be a very, very good result for us, and draw here would be nothing to be ashamed of.

AZ’s main danger is Moroccan striker Mounir El Hamdaoui. The former Spurs forward (although due to injuries and other issues, he never played a first-team match for Tottenham) has emerged as a top quality striker for AZ. He scored 24 goals in 32 games in all competitions last season, and already has 6 goals in 8 games this season. A player of his quality will no doubt be looking to impress an international audience with a good performance against Arsenal, so Gallas and Vermaelen will really need to focus on locking him down.

Midfielder David Mendes da Silva is apparently the main playmaker/distributor for AZ, so our forwards will look to track back and disrupt his rhythm, and Alex Song will try to make sure that he is in for a long day. Their defense is held together by veteran Dutchman Kew Jaliens, who was a teammate of Robin van Persie’s on the Netherlands 2006 World Cup side, and will be looking to shut him down. And we’ll also need to look out for Stijn Schaars–he captains the side, plays regularly for the Dutch national team, and is tough in the tackle and has a dangerous left foot.

As for us, we’ve got our fair share of injury woes to deal with. Theo Walcott is out 3-4 weeks with the injury sustained against Birmingham. It’s really a shame. Theo came into this season with a lot to prove, but hasn’t had an opportunity yet because of injuries. More importantly, it hurts the team quite a bit, as we were really depending on him as one of our attackers in the 4-3-3. Hopefully he’ll have a safe and speedy recovery. This almost certainly means that he’ll be out of action until we return from the November international break on November 21st.

Rosicky is also out with a minor knee problem, but Wenger seems to think he’ll be fit for the West Ham game on Saturday. Bendtner, Denilson, Djourou, and Eduardo are still injured as well. Fabianski and Nasri will not feature, but will play in the Reserves League match tomorrow against Wolves, which means they are both pretty close to a return. The only good news is that Clichy returns to the squad after a minor ankle injury.

The injuries to Eduardo, Bendtner, Rosicky, and Walcott mean that we’re really stretched for attackers, and Wenger really has a lineup dilemma on his hands. Aside from van Persie and Arshavin, we have Carlos Vela, who has barely featured this season, and youngster Sanchez Watt. I think this means Wenger will abandon the 4-3-3, at least for this match, in favor of either a 4-5-1 with van Persie up top and Arshavin and Eboue on the wings, or a more conventional 4-4-2, with Arshavin joining van Persie up top, Eboue on the right, and Diaby playing out of position on the left. My best guess at a lineup:

Almunia

Sagna-Gallas-Vermaelen-Clichy

Eboue-Song-Fabregas-Diaby

van Persie-Arshavin

I really do think we’ll see quite a bit of substitute action, especially if we can grab a lead, for this match. Expect to see Ramsey get some significant action, and if we go to a 4-5-1 he could even start. I think we’ll see Wilshere as well, and possibly Vela or Traore, some guys we haven’t seen much of so far this season.

I think we’re pretty much a lock for getting through to the knockout stages at this point. But a win tomorrow would give us 9 points already, and at least a 5 point advantage over the 3rd place team in the group. Last season, only one club (Shakhtar Donetsk) had as many as 9 points and didn’t make it through the group stages. Especially with 2 of our last 3 group stage matches at home, it’s no stretch to say that a win tomorrow puts us into the group stages.

I think this matters because, as I mentioned in the comments the other day, we have a pretty tough schedule coming up over the next few months. How’s this for a 3-week span?:

11/21–Sunderland (home)
11/24–Standard (home)
11/29–Chelsea (home)
12/2–Bolton (home) (but possibly a Carling Cup fixture instead)
12/5–Stoke (home)
12/9–Olympiakos (away)
12/13–Liverpool (away)

That’s 7 games in 22 days for those keeping score at home. A lot of them are very tough, important league fixtures which could very well be crucial to our title bid (especially the Sunderland, Chelsea, and Liverpool fixtures). It would be really nice if we already basically had our place in the knockout stages booked at that point, so we could rotate the squad and rest some guys against Standard and (especially) Olympiakos, and instead focus on making sure everyone is rested and full strength for Chelsea and Liverpool. So I would argue that while we do have some margin for error, getting a good result in tomorrow’s match is actually very important, and could have some very positive spillover results in other competitions.

In other news, Andrei Arshavin and Cesc Fabregas were both listed among the 30 finalists for the Ballon D’or award. Either Ronaldo or Messi will win, but it’s an honor to be named among the world’s best 30 players, and both deserve it, although I’m a bit surprised and disappointed Robin van Persie’s name wasn’t on the list. Elsewhere, Arsene Wenger confirmed that Sol Campbell will be training with the club for a bit, although he said there is no chance he will sign with the club. Elsewhere, Arsene Wenger slammed Birmingham’s traveling fans as “stupid” for chanting Martin Taylor’s name while Theo Walcott was lying on the pitch yesterday. And quite right. While I don’t think the tackle which injured Theo was dirty, Taylor’s tackle 2 seasons ago most definitely was, and to glorify someone who maliciously broke another player’s leg and almost ended his career is pretty classless. Wenger has also given an interview talking about why he didn’t go to Real Madrid last summer, but it wasn’t anything he hadn’t said before.

Also, Chelsea lost to Aston Villa, and Liverpool lost to ~~a beach ball~~ Sunderland. Manchester City drew, and Alex Ferguson might get suspended for calling someone who is fat and out shape…fat and out of shape. Great (and hilarious) news, the lot of it.

Anyway, I’ll have a game thread up for the match tomorrow. I’m not sure if the game is being broadcast live here in the states, but Fox Soccer is showing a tape-delayed broadcast of it at 5 p.m. tomorrow, and streams shouldn’t be too difficult to find if you want to watch it live.

Come on Arsenal.