Birmingham Preview

By: Martin | October 16th, 2009

Birmingham

Position: 14th, 2-5-1 (7 points, -3 goal differential)

Recent Form: LLWLL

Away Form: 1-0-3

Last Meeting: Birmingham 2-Arsenal 2 (2/23/08)

How can two weeks seem like such a long time? Seriously, it seems like a month since we played Blackburn. At any rate, we’re about 24 hours from Arsenal’s return to league action against Birmingham tomorrow.

The game is notable, of course, because it marks the first meeting between the two clubs since the February 2008 game. Entering that game, Arsenal were five points clear of Manchester United. Martin Taylor’s vicious challenge which caused a compound fracture earned him a red card, so even though the players were clearly shaken, we played virtually the entire match with a man advantage. Arsenal dominated that game, and despite some atrocious finishing by Adebayor, looked to be in control, with Theo Walcott’s brace giving us a one-goal lead. Then, in injury time, Clichy brought down Parnaby in the box and Birmingham converted the spot kick to steal a point from the match. They actually scored more goals in the match (2) than they had shots on goal (1). On the other hand, we took 26 shots, 13 of them on goal, and only managed two goals. Adebayor, as I said, was particularly at fault–whenever people say we shouldn’t have let him go, I can’t help but think of games like this where even average finishing would have won us the game. As the final whistle blew, Gallas sat down on the pitch and cried.

I know it’s just one game, and we still had a three-point lead which we couldn’t keep, but the game really did seem to be the turning point. Maybe it was because we lost a top striker in Eduardo, maybe it was because the team was shaken by the injury and/or lack of leadership shown by Gallas, maybe it was because the game exposed some of the team’s flaws–poor defending on set pieces, propensity to dominate possession but not finish clubs off, etc. But the team was never quite the same after that.

Perhaps tomorrow gives us the opportunity to take a measure of revenge, or get some closure or whatever. Personally, I don’t buy into too much of that stuff–for me, and I imagine for most of the players, this is just one game out of 38. And a very winnable game at that. With a winnable game in hand, we really are right in the thick of the title race, and with Liverpool playing at Sunderland without Torres and Gerrard, and Chelsea playing Aston Villa at Villa Park, some of the clubs around us are going to be dropping points, so 3 points will help us gain ground.

Birmingham is a tough side. I picked them for relegation at the beginning of the season, but they do seem to be adopting the right strategy for avoiding relegation, which is concentrate on playing fundamentally sound, physical defense, and try to steal a few draws away to good teams and pick up the odd 1-0 or 2-1 win with some long balls and set pieces. This kind of football is pretty dire to watch, but you can’t deny that it’s successful (see, e.g., Stoke last season, Sam Allardyce’s entire career) inasfar as teams that really commit to it usually finish out of the drop zone. It will be a contrast in style, though–Arsenal are the top-scoring outfit in the Premiership, with 24 goals from 7 matches, while only Portsmouth (4) have scored fewer than Birmingham’s 5 goals.

Martin Taylor is out of the match through injury, so that storyline should hopefully not get played up too much. Birmingham is led by Scots midfielder Barry Ferguson and forward James McFadden, and newcomer Roger Johnson, a summer transfer from Cardiff, anchors the backline. Other than that, they have a piecemeal squad made up of guys who were put out by other clubs but have found a home in Birmingham–Teemu Tainio, Stephen Carr, Stuart Parnaby, Lee Bowyer, etc.

When we think of a manager “having an eye for talent,” we generally think of someone like Wenger, who is capable of spotting in young players the potential for greatness. But there’s something impressive about somebody like McLeish’s “eye for talent” as well–while what he does is very different from Wenger, what he is able to do well is look over the landscape of veteran players who are out of favor at their clubs and decide who has the potential for “goodness.” For a club like Birmingham, that is crucial. Most of these guys are not big, not quick, not particularly athletic or technically gifted. Many of them were out of favor at clubs like Middlesbrough or Newcastle, which are no longer even in the Premiership. And yet, McLeish has managed to fashion this group into a sum that’s better than the whole of his parts, for not a lot of money, and that is impressive in its own way. It will be interesting to see what McLeish does with the big transfer kitty he will supposedly be given in January, because it’s something he’s never really had before.

For Arsenal, the injury list still includes Djourou, Nasri, Fabianski, and Denilson. Clichy picked up an ankle injury on international duty, Bendtner apparently tweaked his groin, and Vela will be left out of the squad since he had to fly back from Mexico yesterday and will still be dealing with jet lag. Diaby also picked up a knock, but apparently will be included in the squad.

The big news is that Almunia is apparently fit to return after his mysterious chest infection. Although Mannone has been great, Almunia plays if he’s fit. The tougher question will be when Fabianski returns, whether Mannone has surpassed him as the number 2 keeper. With Clichy out, Gibbs slots in at starting left-back–the young man played pretty well in the spring when Clichy was out with a back injury, hopefully he can pick up where he left off.

Almunia

Sagna-Gallas-Vermaelen-Gibbs

Diaby-Song-Fabregas

Rosicky-van Persie-Arshavin

I think that’s almost certainly going to be the lineup configuration, with the possible exception of Walcott in the squad over Rosicky. I really think it’s pretty much a toss up between those two. I wish Wenger would start Walcott up front and play Rosicky back in a midfield playmaker role, but from what we’ve seen so far, Wenger really likes to have 3 “true” center mids in there when he plays the 4-3-3, and I don’t see him changing at this point. At any rate, look for Walcott to at least get some time in a sub role, and I suspect we’ll see Aaron Ramsey tomorrow as well. Eboue or possibly Wilshere could make an appearance as well.

This is really a game we should win, but you never know with matches like this. I hate playing these types of matches coming out of international breaks, because the players haven’t played together in two weeks, are possibly tired and/or jetlagged, and a team like Birmingham that’s tough to break down can really exploit the team’s rustiness in that situation. But we’re playing at home, and there really is a large gulf in talent and skill between the sides, so anything less than 3 points will be a massive disappointment.

As we talked about in the comments to a previous post, it looks like this game is not being televised live in the US. I believe Setanta is replaying the game tomorrow evening, if you have Setanta and can wait that long. Otherwise, it looks like internet streams might be the way to go.

Nevada Smith’s, the famous football bar here in NYC, claims they are televising it live, so I’ll probably head over there to try to watch it. You will recall that I have only been there twice, for both Manchester matches, so I have yet to see Arsenal win there. I told myself I wouldn’t go back, but since it seems to be the only place in the area broadcasting it, I don’t think I have much of a choice. Long story short, if we don’t win, you can blame me.

But let’s win and get those 3 points. Come on Arsenal.