Champions League Group Stage Draw Preview

The four pots are set, and it’s coming tomorrow. We’ve gotten pretty fortunate the last couple of years — will our good luck continue, or is time for some karmic payback?

In 2008-2009, we were drawn with Porto, Dynamo Kyiv, and Fenerbahce. While we didn’t win the group, this was largely down to playing our reserves in the final group stage match against Porto in Portugal, who beat us to take the group by a single point. But we were never in danger of not making the knockout rounds, and highlights included a 5-2 drubbing of Fenerbahce in Turkey and a 4-0 beatdown of Porto at the Emirates.

Last season, we got an even easier path, drawing Olympiakos, AZ Alkmaar, and Standard Liege. We won the group handily (despite playing our reserves again in the final match). We won all 3 of our home matches by at least 2 goals, and only lost the final match (which, again, didn’t feature our regular starting XI).

So what to expect this year? Well, for the uninitiated, the way it works is that the 32 teams that make the group stage are divided into 4 “pots,” according to each club’s UEFA coefficient. This is designed to prevent a number of the big clubs ending up in the same group and knocking each other out ahead of knockout play. However, it’s an imperfect system, as it relies on a club’s performance in European competition over the previous 5 seasons, which does not always correlate with the current quality of the club. Of the 32 qualified teams, it breaks down thusly (in order from highest to lowest-ranked — overall coefficient ranking, including teams that did not qualify for the group stage, is in parentheses):

Pot A
Barcelona (1)
Manchester United (2)
Chelsea (3)
Arsenal (4)
Bayern Munich (6)
Internazionale (8)
AC Milan (9)
Lyon (10)

So good news is that we won’t have to meet any of those teams until the knockout rounds. So let’s look at some of the teams we could play:

Pot B:

Werder Bremen (11)
Real Madrid (13)
Roma (14)
Shakhtar Donetsk (16)
Benfica (17)
Valencia (20)
Marseille (25)
Panathinaikos (29)

Some tricky ones there, to be sure. Obviously, I think the name that jumps out from that list is Real Madrid, which is going to be a really unfortunate draw for one of the Pot A teams. With the influx of talent they’ve brought in the last couple of years, and now Mourinho, a man who has won the Champions League with two different sides, at the helm, they’re going to be one of the tougher teams in this competition, and drawing them would leave Arsenal little margin for error. Frankly, I wouldn’t say there are many weak links in that group — Bremen and Shakhtar have had very successful UEFA Cup showings and are looking to duplicate that at a higher level. Roma very nearly pipped Inter for the Serie A title last season, Marseille are the defending Ligue 1 champs and have added talent since then, Benfica are talented and the defending Portuguese Liga champs, and Valencia, despite losing Davids Villa and Silva, are still a tough side. We’re much better than Zenit, but traveling halfway around the world to play in the freezing cold is always a very, very tough task. Greek teams area always tough to beat in Greece, but honestly, I think Panathinaikos is probably the best possible draw we could get out of this pot. But no easy outs there.

I’d say if I had my druthers, other than Panathinaikos, I’d like our chances against Valencia, a Werder Bremen side now without Mesut Ozil, Shakhtar, or Benfica, too. Shakhtar would be intriguing for a number of reasons, but from an Arsenal perspective it would give Eduardo a game back at the Emirates, which is sure to be a goosebumps moment. But please no Madrid, Roma, or Marseille.

But the bottom line, remember, is that two teams from each group advance. So really, the team we draw from Pot B isn’t nearly as important as the teams we draw from Pots C & D, because as long as we finish ahead of them we make it into the knockout rounds. Let’s take a look at those now:

Pot C:

Tottenham (30) (NOTE: cannot be drawn in a group with Arsenal)
Rangers (31)
Ajax (32)
Schalke 04 (35)
FC Basel (38)
Braga (48)
FC Copenhagen (60)
Spartak Moscow (63)

A real mixed bag here. We can’t draw Tottenham since we’re from the same nation, so they’re not a possibility. I wouldn’t particularly mind drawing Rangers, although that could be a tricky fixture in Glasgow. Ajax is a good side with a lot of history, but they are a shell of their former selves and their style of play would suit us well. I’d really prefer to avoid Schalke 04, because they’re a very disciplined side that finished 2nd in the Bundesliga last season and could give us a very difficult couple of matches. I’m sure Basel are a decent, well-organized side, and the Swiss champions might give us more of a game than expected at home, but I can’t say I’d be too sad to see them in Arsenal’s group. Then comes Braga, the other team I’d prefer to avoid. While they’d be entertaining as all get out (anyone who watched their match against Sevilla yesterday can verify this), they might really give us a tough match or two. We shouldn’t have any problem with Copenhagen if it comes to that. And the group is rounded out by Spartak Moscow, who I’d also like to avoid, just because that would be a massive road trip during the winter months and would leave us in ruins for that weekend’s fixture. Although, on the plus side, their offseason is in the winter, so we might get to play them during their winter holiday when they’re out of match fitness. Overall, then, I’d say let’s please, please avoid Schalke 04 here, and Braga and Spartak, too, if possible.

Pot D:

Hapoel Tel Aviv (73)
FC Twente (84)
Rubin Kazan (94)
Auxerre (101)
CFR Cluj (111)
Partizan (123)
Zilina (150)
Bursaspor (180)

Well, I’d say I really don’t want to face Auxerre, who is a very, very good side for being in Pot 4. I wouldn’t fancy that away match at all. Rubin Kazan stunned everyone by getting a result against Barca last season at Camp Nou, Cluj did the same a few years back against Chelsea, I believe. But honestly, there’s not anyone I would be too bothered by in this one. Although a lot of those teams would be pretty long trips. So let’s please avoid Auxerre, and try to avoid Kazan, too. Other than that, we can take whoever out of this group.

The draw is pretty early tomorrow, I’ll obviously update after it goes down.

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Category: Arsenal News, Champions League, Fixtures