Fulham – Arsenal Preview

Fulham

Position: 8th, 11-15-11 (48 points, +6 goal differential)

Home Form: 8-6-4 (30 points, +7 goal differential)

Recent Form: DWWLW

Last Meeting: Arsenal 2 – Fulham 1 (December 4, 2010)

Our nightmare of a spring mercifully comes to an end.

We face off against Fulham with a trip across town to Craven Cottage. What do we have to play for? Well, aside from pride/momentum, etc., the answer is pretty simply “3rd place.” We are one point behind Manchester City, who are playing at Bolton. Here’s the breakdown of scenarios:

If Manchester City Win

City finishes 3rd and Arsenal finish 4th, regardless of Arsenal’s result

If Manchester City Draw

And Arsenal draw or lose, City finishes 3rd and Arsenal finishes 4th
And Arsenal win, Arsenal finishes 3rd and City finishes 4th

If Manchester City Loses

And Arsenal lose, City finishes 3rd and Arsenal finishes 4th
And Arsenal win or draw, Arsenal finishes 3rd and City finishes 4th

So that’s what we have to tangibly play for. And we’ve talked about how inconvenient it would be to have to play those qualifiers right at the beginning of the season. So we need to try to take care of business on our end and hope Bolton does us a favor there.

On the Fulham side, they don’t have a lot to play for. They are in line to qualify for the Europa League, but they would qualify through the extra slot in the Fair Play League, and they will get it so long as Tottenham finish above Liverpool, which is obviously completely out of their control, so nothing they do tomorrow can impact that. So in a way maybe it’s good for us, but after getting drubbed by a Stoke team with nothing to play for I certainly don’t think we can rely on that. And don’t forget that they’re managed by Sparky Hughes, who really does hate Wenger and Arsenal, so don’t think for a second that he wouldn’t love to send Arsenal to our worst season in the Wenger era.

And you’ve got to give Sparky some credit. He has quietly done a very good job at Fulham this season, taking a pretty mediocre side to a solidly mid-table side. Some managers just seem destined to be guys who can take relegation-talent level sides to mid-table and possibly even top-half finishes. Hughes seems to be cut out of that Allardyce mold — Hughes did a tremendous job at Blackburn, didn’t get the job done at Manchester City (although, to be fair, I’m not sure he really got a fair chance there), and now has done some very good things at Fulham.

Fulham still play pretty much in the Hodgson mold. Their calling card is defense, defense, defense. Only three sides (Chelsea, United, City) have conceded fewer goals than Fulham’s 41 (same as us). They’ve got good defenders, a good keeper, and play very well together as a disciplined unit. They’ll be tough to break down, although in a bit of a statistical oddity, their defense has been better on the road than at home, so they haven’t made the Cottage a complete fortress. But we probably shouldn’t expect too many goals from this one.

Attacking-wise, Fulham aren’t necessarily the strongest. They’ve only tallied 47 goals in 37 league matches. They’ve really missed the presence of last year’s danger man Bobby Zamora, who has struggled with injuries all season. They guy who has really stepped up has been Clint Dempsey, who has, without too much fanfare, had what is probably the best European club season of any American player in history, with 12 league goals, twice as much as Fulham’s next highest scorer. They have some decently skilled players like Eidur Gudjohnsen and Steve Sidwell, and I’m sure they’ll create a few chances, but the fact is that Fulham’s one of the less threatening attacking sides in the Premiership, although they’ve been better at home than away in that regard, so our defense should be okay (famous last words, in all that).

In team news for us, Flaps and Cesc are out. Clichy, Nasri, Diaby, Djourou, and Koscielny all face late fitness tests. Here’s my best guess at a lineup:

Wojo

Sagna-Vermaelen-Djourou-Gibbs

Wilshere-Song

Walcott-Ramsey-Arshavin

van Persie

Bench: Lehmann, Squillaci, Eboue, Henderson, Rosicky, Bendtner, Chamakh

Wojo continues his run as our # 1 — a run which will hopefully continue for many, many years. I think we’ll definitely see Sagna on the right, and Vermaelen in one of the center back spots. Hopefully at least one of Koscielny or Djourou will be fit enough to start alongside him; if not, we’re stuck with Squillaci, and Miquel will probably come in on the bench to deputize. If Clichy passes his fitness test, he may play, but I suspect Gibbs will get another start out on the left.

In midfield, I think we’ll see the same trio of Jack, Song, and Ramsey in there given the injuries to the other situation. One thing to watch for from a drama perspective is whether or not Denilson even makes the bench given that he’s asked out. I guess no, that that slot will go to a young Reserves player instead, but we’ll see.

Up front, we’ll see van Persie start, because he’s a badass and always scores. Theo starts on the right, and if Nasri is fit enough, he’ll probably start on the left; if not, it will be Arshavin.

One thing about the end of the season is it kind of sneaks up on you and then you realize, “Wait — this will probably be the last time I see some of these players in an Arsenal shirt.” Who might we never see play for Arsenal again after tomorrow? Denilson seems to be the obvious one, since it seems to be a foregone conclusion he’ll be going. Almunia will go if we can find someone to take him off our hands, but I doubt we’ll even see him tomorrow. Clichy’s contract is up after next season and there have been murmurs that he’s unhappy and won’t re-sign, which would mean we would almost certainly have to sell him this summer. Eboue’s time at the club could be up. Diaby seems to perenially be a possible candidate to move on. Rosicky hasn’t contributed much and may want to leave to go somewhere where he’ll actually play. We know the Cesc-Barcelona drama will have another act this summer, but the question is whether it will be the final act. Nasri’s contract is also up after next season, and even though he’s basically said he’ll re-sign, until the ink is dry there’s always a chance he could decide he wants to be elsewhere. There’s been some dissatisfaction with Arshavin, and some dissatisfaction by him. Bendtner has said he will speak to Wenger about his future. I don’t for a second think that all, almost all, or even most of those guys will go, but I do get the sense there will be a slight house-cleaning this summer, and I imagine 3-5 of those guys won’t be back in the fall.

And I guess I should weigh in on the Denilson thing. And my reaction is basically to shrug. Good riddance, really. I used to be a big defender of Denilson, saying that he would break into the Brazil squad by now. In 2008-2009, when Cesc was hurt for most of the season, Denilson stepped in and played in 37 of our 38 league matches, and was actually a very clean, very capable two-way midfielder. He wasn’t spectacular, but played pretty well for a young player thrust into such a position.

I’m honestly not sure what happened with him. I do think that part of it is Wenger’s fault. I never looked at Denilson and thought “defensive midfielder.” If anything, at that time, Denilson seemed much more like a poor man’s Cesc to me — a decent passer with a good long-range shot who could trouble the other team deep in their half. But Wenger decided he was going to make Denilson a defensive midfielder, and, for me, his decline in form coincided with that. Denilson never really learned to tackle or mark, and he seemed to become increasingly uncertain and tentative in attack. And he became, essentially, a very ineffective player over the last couple of seasons.

Which isn’t to absolve him of any blame for this. The fact is that much of the reason he’s been so ineffective has been his own lack of effort and dedication — how many times have we given up goals on the counterattack because Denilson refused to do anything beyond a jog in tracking back over the last couple of years? It seems like a lot. And the bottom line is that Jack Wilshere isn’t a defensive midfielder, either, but Wenger decided to put him there and he responded by just playing his ass off and doing his best. It’s a telling counterpoint to Denilson.

He won’t be missed. But one thing that seems to be overlooked is that Denilson currently makes (according to reliable sources), about £55,000/week with us. That is much, much, much, much more than he is worth, and much, much, much, much more than any other team would give him. Selling him, or even pretty much giving him away, won’t be as easy as people think. He’s not good enough to play for any of the elite teams in Italy, Spain, or Germany. I could definitely see some team in Spain or Germany who is in the next tier down (like Sevilla, Atletico, Villareal, or Valencia in Spain, or Leverkusen, Hamburg, Stuttgart, Bremen, Schalke, or Wolfsburg in Germany) looking at him, the fact that he’s still 23 and has some talent, and taking a flyer on him. But he would be a project for them — a player with some talent who would need to be rebuilt in a lot of ways, and I don’t think a smart team would pay a player with some potential as if he’s already reached that potential. So I’m not saying we won’t be able to get rid of him, but (a) if we do, don’t expect to get much of anything in terms of a transfer fee for him, and (b) Denilson himself may have to make a tough decision about whether he’s willing to take a pay cut to play somewhere else. It will be interesting to watch it develop.

So that’s that, really. It would be really nice to see us put in a nice performance to end the season on a positive note, and if we could somehow take advantage of a Manchester City stumble to reclaim 3rd place, that would be a huge bonus, as well. That would be much preferable to another lackluster performance that continues Arsenal’s late-season malaise, which would only increase fan outrage going into the offseason.

My bachelor party is tonight, so heaven knows what kind of shape I’ll be in tomorrow. And Sairax isn’t getting the show live. So we will, at some point, have a review of some sort up. But no promises.

Come on Arsenal.

**************

Don’t forget to follow the Arsenal Offside on Twitter for the latest news, links, and updates

Some Related Stories:

Category: Arsenal News, Fixtures, Fulham, Premiership, Preview