How Late is Too Late in the Transfer Window?

By: Homey | August 3rd, 2011

2414571 Today I will continue my summer-long airing of grievances, even though it’s not Festivus season. I was hoping there would be some concrete transfer news in the early part of this week. But since it appears that we’ll be waiting at least another couple days, I’ll go off on another topic. I think JG will be along either later today or tomorrow to post something as well, so hopefully there won’t be any more gaps in our blogging up through the start of the season.

For today, I’ll assume that we actually do make at least one or two more purchases in the transfer window. As I see it, there will be another defender arriving at some point, and we’ll probably get at least one more attacking player, but that will depend on whether we sell Nasri and/or Cesc. So my question for now is whether this wait to spend is helpful to our cause.

At this point, it’s safe to say that whoever we purchase from now until the end of the window will not be able to participate in any preseason friendlies. We’re playing at Benfica this Saturday, so I’ll assume we’re flying out on Friday. For a player to make that trip, he’d probably have to be signed and delivered today, or tomorrow at the very latest. And since the Mata deal is off for now, and we’re not reportedly close on anyone else, I don’t see that happening.

The only real justification for waiting until late in a transfer window is the theory that prices will fall a bit. In conjunction with that is the reasoning that we should let the bigger spenders show their hands first, and then we’ll be able to pursue the players who are left. But now we’re approaching the point of diminishing returns, where even if we bring in a new player or two, his impact won’t be quite as great. Simply looking at the schedule for August, our Premier League matches are at Newcastle, home to Liverpool, and at Manchester United. Squeezed in between all that are the super-important Champions League qualifying matches against an opponent to be named later. While we’ll be solid favorites to advance to the group stages regardless of our transfer dealings in the next two weeks, it’s also not something I care to take for granted.

Now, before I go further, I think I should divide our potential dealings into two categories. One category consists of young, developmental players. The other consists of players who would be relied upon from the outset. In the former category, I don’t really care if we wait until August 31. For instance, we’re supposedly chasing Joel Campbell again. But even if he were brought on board already, I don’t see him factoring into the lineup in late August.

However, in the category of players who would be counted on from the outset, it of course makes sense to integrate them into the team as soon as possible. I think the reasons are so obvious that I don’t need to list all of them. Wenger even said a week ago that “our business will be done sooner rather than later.” And yet here were are, with the regular season only 10 days away, with nothing new in sight.

Now that we’ve hopefully established that buying players would be better sooner rather than later, let’s turn to two final questions. One is if it will hurt us, and two is if we can realistically expect prices to fall.

On the question of whether it will hurt us, I actually don’t think it will be as big of a deal this year as in most years. I hope I don’t jinx anything by saying this, but we’re really quite healthy at the moment. Last season, in the opener against Liverpool, we were without Cesc, and we started RvP and Song on the bench. This year, we’re looking pretty healthy at the moment, and nobody played in an extended summer tournament either. The only things that could really set us back would be last-minute sales of Nasri or Cesc, without time to find replacements. And frankly, even Nasri’s loss wouldn’t be so big. We can still plug in Gervinho and Walcott/Arshavin. So while it’s troubling that we’re waiting so long yet again, I don’t think it’s as harmful as it would be in other seasons.

The second question is impossible to really answer, and the answer really depends on the situation, but it’s something I’ve wondered for years. That is, do prices rise or fall towards the end of a window? Do sellers get more desperate to sell, or do buyers get more desperate to buy? In theory, it would seem to me that prices would rise.

Let’s take for example the situation of Mata at Valencia. If I were the one making decisions for Valencia, I’d come up with my price at the beginning of the window. Of course if a bidding war erupts, I’d always be willing to take more than I expected. But if not, I’d just wait for my price to be met, and hold on to the player if it’s not met. (Which seems like the course we’re taking with Cesc.) If it gets close to the transfer deadline, I’d probably start to push my price up, simply because there would be no time left to re-invest in any replacement players and integrate them into the squad.
andrei arshavin
So if the above analysis is the correct one most of the time, then why do we keep going down to the wire with transfers? Last year, we got Squillaci about a week before the deadline, and haggled with Fulham over Schwarzer until the very end of the transfer window. When we picked up Arshavin in 2009, we went down to the final hours of the transfer window to get that one done. Did we really save any money? I’ll never know that one. But I do know that Arshavin would have been handy for the full month of January that year, especially with the form he was in at that time.

Anyway, those are just a few thoughts to discuss while we wait for some concrete business to be done. I hope Wenger knows that our lack of action is making things difficult on poor little bloggers to come up with ideas too. Maybe JG will have something better pretty soon though. Until then…

[Update: After writing my last two blogs, I read the "Yankee Gunner" blog that Brenton recommended in the previous comments' section. Wow. Very long read, but absolutely excellent. This guy is my blogging soul mate. He says everything that I think, only better. Please check this blog out. But then don't leave the Arsenal Offside, of course.]

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A merry heart does good, like medicine, but a broken spirit dries the bones. Proverbs 17:22.

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Category: Andrey Arshavin, Arsenal News, Arsene Wenger, Rants, Transfer News and Player Movement

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FredJacob

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
Gigi_man

so its rubin, benfica, twente, zurich and odense our potential opponents in UCL qualifying round?
JG

Watch out for a post on this in the following hours.
Martin

It's been "on the verge" of happening for a while now, but Turkish tv is apparently reporting Eboue has agreed to terms with Galatasaray.

I know Darren and some others on Twitter have taken the opportunity to take digs at him on the way out, but I'll miss him. No, he was never great (although he had some pretty good moments at RB). Yes, he made a number of stupid mistakes. But he was a good teammate (no one celebrated his teammates' goals like Eboue did), was good to the fans, worked hard, and seemed to have genuine affection for Arsenal. I think this was probably a good move for the club and for him (he was never going to be first-choice at Arsenal, and Jenkinson makes for a much more promising understudy), and I hope he does very well at Galatasaray.
Homey_Mills

I don't know where the faith in Jenkinson comes from. I won't argue that he may be more promising than Eboue. But for right now, he scares me to death. I'm not sure what part of "8 starts at Charlton" is supposed to assure us of anything. When he was bought, I thought he'd maybe play some Carling Cup, or else go out on loan. You know, prove something like Miyaichi before being gifted a spot on the team.
As it stands now, Jenkinson is one injury away from starting at Old Trafford in a few weeks. Pretty inspiring stuff, huh?
Darren_V

My Gunnersauras comment was a dig, I'll give you that. However it was (mostly) just a joke as my TL went crazy talking about how great he was on the sidelines for us.I was ok with him as a backup for Sagna and thought of him as fairly useful. And then Wenger thought he would be a genius and play Eboue in midfield and as a forward, which never worked out at all. He was largely poor and ineffective further up the pitch as he couldn't run at player, his best offensive skill, but had to turn with the ball to do so now, and was never a great passer. Ever since then, Eboue has cheated when playing RB, consistently playing higher than the rest of the defensively line. Although he did impressed me vs Barca last year in fairness, when I thought he would be the weak link, and did a great job.
The tipping point should've come when he was subbed onto the pitch, only to be subbed back off by Wenger to a chorus of boos (I never liked him being booed). Wenger kept him, and we had to witness the 'Cult of Eboue' evolve, a semblance of feeling bad for supporters actions to him. I completely agree that Eboue seems like a great teammate and understand everyone liked him. I probably wish I had a friend exactly like Eboue, and wish him well myself. But I don't think he worked hard for Arsenal on the pitch as much as he could've. I also do not understand how people can complain about lack of leadership and winning mentality at Arsenal, and then think Eboue should stick around. To me, he is exactly what is wrong at Arsenal, ie. Good player, capable of good/great moments, but rarely there when needed.
Martin

I don't know. You say he wasn't there when it counts, but then admit that he played well against Barca. I don't know that he was really any better or worse in big games than he was any other time.

But by and large, I think a lot of your points are probably valid. I'm not saying that we should have kept him or that this is a bad move. It's not. He was about the same age as Sagna and a demonstrably inferior player, and it didn't make much sense to keep him around. We needed a younger RB that we can spend the next couple of years grooming to be Sagna's replacement, and it appears that we have that with Jenkinson.

I just generally feel that, absent an Adebayor situation or something like that where the player has really been actively trying underhanded means to engineer a transfer, this is a time to salute a player for all the good things he did for the club and thank him for his service. I think a lot of players could learn a thing or two about how to move clubs if you're unhappy from Eboue here. We didn't hear a peep from him or his agent about being unhappy and wanting to move, and "ambition" and all this nonsense. He showed up, he played and trained in preseason, and let his people and the clubs work it out bheind the scenes. If the rest of our players followed this model, I'd be a lot less disgusted this time every year.
Darren_V

Arsenal had some great games this past season. See Barca and Chelsea games. But they also had some shockers when everything were on the line as well.

I have never wished ill on him, or wanted anything poor for him. I'm just glad he is gone from Arsenal as I felt he should've before this time. People rag on Bendtner and Arshavin like crazy, and they have their merits in their arguments. But to me those two have stepped up in big moments in the past but and I want to keep them around. But Eboue is the one people are sad to see go.
I can tell you I will be sad to see Bendtner go.
Martin

That makes 2 of us that will be sad to see Bendtner go. If he can ever gain a little bit more humility and regular playing time, I think he's going to score a lot of goals for someone.
Brentonwalters

I think I joined the Bendtner fan club last season after that sumptuous cross for a RvP header.
Gigi_man

I think Wenger and Co have made up their minds.
Even though Arsenal isnt a big spender, it is a big team, and we will be trated as such, exactly how we treat Barza when they come knockin for Cesc (amazes me still that these guys think they will get any different treatment).
I think Wenger has his numbers and wont change them and he will go on with Vermaelen and Kos, he wont have any depth and be happy just to know there is "talent to be developped" in the young replacements.
I hope for the sake of our team he gets it right, but my mind tells me to go by the facts, and facts so far arent good.
Late buys are not imo a way to put down a price, unless its a player the team wants to get rid of (ahem Squillaci ahem) and we all know that is not a good sign.
How late is late? I d say we are already late.
I will be calling for Wenger to go at the end of the season. Unless of course he delivers a trophy, any trophy, which cant be the Emirates cup now (which is a bit disappointing..)
Homey_Mills

Gigi,
I'll probably beat you to it by about one year. As it stands now, I'll be writing a blog in roughly 3 weeks or so, arguing that Wenger should go. Time is running out for me...
Darren_V

You have pretty much been arguing Wenger needs to go since you started blogging, without actually saying the words.
Homey_Mills

Did you pick up on that? I thought I was so subtle.
Darren_V

I just know you so well, thats all.
Felegy

IMO it hurst us the most if we are still looking to add a starting CB to stand alongside Verms (which we frakkin better be!!!). I've gotta imagine that you want those two players to be on the same page and be comfortable with their partner in the center of defence. Pre-season games are a perfect time to establish that sort of relationship and once again we will not be utlizing them as such....
Martin

I would be pretty stunned if we signed someone new as a starting CB. I think Wenger thinks Vermaelen and Kos are the starters, and Djourou is a capable back-up. I think our biggest need is just to find some depth, because as we've seen so many times over the past few years, our 4th CB is going to play big minutes in a significant match.
JG

Bartley.
Martin

It seems highly possible, but people who generally know what they're talking about are saying that the plan for Bartley is another season on loan, with Ipswich and Rangers (again) being the most likely landing spots. I don't know -- if he's that good, I think I'd rather see him in there as our # 4 than Squillaci. Assuming we don't sign anyone, which is definitely not what we should do.
FredJacob

i hope Miquel is or forth choice
Homey_Mills

Where do you read the "people who generally know what they're talking about"? I keep looking at the Daily Mail for stuff... is that a bad idea?
Homey_Mills

Well that's certainly not too inspiring. Actually, I wouldn't mind that at all, if we added a solid LB, plus a solid RB if we sell Eboue. But from all I'm reading, we're at least hoping to get a major CD signing. Why else would we admit to bidding on Jagielka?
I dunno... the whole thing again shows a lack of direction and clear idea of what we need to do before the window expires.
Felegy

Yeah, if Koz and Verms are our starters then spending 10-15MM on an additional quality just for depth seems strange. If we were to buy Jagielka this week I would find it shocking to see Koz starting over him.
Homey_Mills

Exactly. I was in a bit of a hurry to get this blog posted, so I didn't get into my explanation of why it would be so important to get players time to get on the same page like that. But I think that's the most important area where we need to get a new player situated.
Perry S.

I was actually thinking the same thing. I like to compare it to the auction block in that the best items' prices go higher as time runs out, and the least wanted items' prices may drop a bit when there are no takers.
GunnerPete

In answer to your main question....Arsenal have become known as the last minute, bargain hunters club ie; cheapskates. I go back many, many , years to the days of before Bertie Mee and remember the dark days of 18 years without investment so no trophies and the worts teams in AFC history. Herbie Chapman knew who he wanted and instructed the board to buy and they did..Arsenal dominated 'world football because of it'. After 1953 the board decided that they would keep all the profits and 'hope' the club survived...not worried about our reputation or trophies as long as they could arrive in the directors box nicely full of good food and drink, home and away, they were happy. Now we have the sad but true similar situation that after all the success via George Graham and Arsene Wenger, they have jointly decided that a new stadium is more important than a trophy winning side to play in it. If you add the sums of profit made on Arsenes deals from Petit/Overmars/Henry/Hleb/Viera/Anelka and others you will note that only a small % went on replacements....same old AFC board, but now with our managers blessing?

I watched the Emirates cup games and wondered why oh why am I doing this again. I watched my beloved club tip tap across the back line then through and around midfield and then around the box at least 15 times in each match…WITHOUT ANYONE HAVING A SHOT!!! Both oppositions had obviously heard about ‘our style’ and just waited for the breakdown in our play and broke away. Both games our ‘unique defence’ had only a few free kicks and corners to deal with and FAILED AGAIN ! So here we are again….cost in money £80 for two days…..long 1.5 hour journey each way…..eagerly reading blogs for news of desperately needed defenders with 6′5″ height, and Arsene + Gazidis playing games with the clubs future. If the mata deal has gone tits up (as usual) because ,as quoted’ AFC were waiting for the Fabregas money, the once again the board and manager have been telling porkies about our financial clout.
SO the answer to THE question about Joey Barton…..is a BLOODY GREAT YES! He is not the sort to fairy around as per denilson, he will not fold before, during and after a match like Diaby, his passing range is equal to most but his toughness and bravery is second to none. So sell Nasri & cesc and get Parker, McCarthy, & Barton immediately. Sell Arsharvin for £15 mill and buy Enrique…….and guess what we still have about £45 mill left over to buy Rossi……blimey what a team we would have? AT LAST!
Perry S.

I'm sorry, but Barton is by far and wide the last ego errrm player we need on this squad. He's overrated, has major character issues, and like I said before is basically Bellamy & Ade all wrapped into one gremlin of a man.

Edit (in response to Homey below): Regarding the sale of Arshavin: 1.) Don't think we're going to find a buyer willing to pay that right now, and even if you did, Rossi is already out of the picture, so you're suggesting to replace him with who McCarthy or Barton? Not sure where to even begin with that one. 2.) No reason to sell Arshavin, plus he hasn't even come out and said anything about wanting to leave outside of the time he said he'd love to play for Barca...some day (though I think every player on this planet seems to have that desire). If anything, Arsha is showing some pretty strong desire to play for Arsenal this season, and play well at that. He also is one of the few players coming out and saying he thinks they will be much better this season. I think we could use a few players who are getting behind the club even when its being dumped upon.
Homey_Mills

I'm with you on this one, Perry. But why did you let GunnerPate off the hook for suggesting we sell Arshavin?
Perry S.

Whoa, somehow I missed this travesty! Thanks for the heads up...
Homey_Mills

Well now that you edited your first statement, my response to that statement looks like I can't read. Which half my readers probably think is true anyway.
Perry S.

Look above, now you can save face.
Homey_Mills

You da man. =)
Homey_Mills

I've been told we're not allowed to play "Football Manager" here at the Arsenal Offside. :-/

But yeah, there are a lot of ways I'd re-invest all that money if we sold those players. But as usual, we stroll along to the end of the transfer window without a clear direction as to what we want to accomplish.