January Transfer Window Preview

Made-up rumors, nonexistent “inside sources,” Wenger rolling his eyes at a steady stream of bullcrap questions, unsettled players. It’s your favorite time of year, and it’s back. The January transfer window is upon us.

Arsenal have not traditionally been great movers and shakers in the January window, although we have brought in a fair few players midseason. Arshavin, probably most memorably, but also Adebayor, Theo, and Jose Antonio Reyes, among others.

It’s a a bit of a weird time to bring a player in, because it’s actually quite difficult for a player to settle in and help a team immediately midway through the season. The instinct is to think it provides a quick fix, but a guy like Arshavin who comes in and immediately changes a team’s fortunes is certainly the exception, not the rule. So with that in mind, let’s look ahead to what Arsenal fans can possibly expect over the next month.

Players Coming In

Obviously this is where there is the most interest. Many have continued to state what many were saying at the beginning of the season: Arsenal need (1) a quality center back, especially in light of Vermaelen’s long, mysterious injury lay-off, (2) another midfield hard man to at least deputise for Alex Song, if not give him competition for his place in the starting XI, and (3) a proven goalkeeper, although our goalkeeper play this year has actually been quite good.

I’ll say at the outset that I just don’t see Wenger making a move for another holding midfielder. Although many of us may disagree with this, it has become quite obvious that Wenger doesn’t think this team needs a traditional holding midfielder, instead opting for two deep-lying guys who have the freedom to get forward. And with Song, Wilshere, Denilson, and Ramsey all tabbed for this role, and all aged 23 or younger, Wenger must think we are set at this position — and that’s not even mentioning the perma-crocked Diaby, the injured Frimpong, and youth players like Eastmond, Yennaris, Coquelin, and Aneke, who may also see time in that role one day.

But center half is more intriguing. With Nordtveit gone (more on that below), and no real news about if and when Vermaelen will come back, we really are down to 3 center halves. Our most promising young center half is probably Kyle Bartley, but he’s on a season-long loan to Sheffield United and cannot be recalled. If we were to suffer an injury or two, we would be forced to resort to starting Alex Song at center half and moving probably Denilson into the starting XI, which I’m not sure many of us feel that comfortable with, or throwing 18 year-old reserve player Ignasi Miquel (above) into the mix. Miquel is promising and has done well for the Reserves this season, but I don’t know anyone who would feel good about him being in the starting XI down the stretch as we hopefully try to win trophies.

People seem to be calling for Wenger to splash out a lot of money on a “world-class” center back like Mertesacker, Tasci (above), or Luiz. I just can’t see it. Any of those 3 would probably cost more money than Wenger has ever spent on a player (Mertesacker and Luiz certainly would cost upwards of 20 million, and Tasci could cost close to that). Wenger believes in Vermaelen, and I think he’s a big believer that Koscielny will come good given time, and if there’s one thing we know about Wenger, it’s his stubborn refusal to buy experienced players who will “block” a promising young player’s path to the first-team.

That said, I wouldn’t be completely stunned if he does sign someone. I just think if he does it will be someone along the lines of Sol Campbell — an experienced player available on a short-term deal. Someone who wouldn’t mind being fourth-choice and playing in domestic cups. The problem is that there aren’t that many guys like that kicking around — as you would expect, guys who can play (a) are generally under long-term contracts and (b) want to play regularly. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Wenger sends some scouts out beating the bushes trying to find someone who is a good fit, but if he can’t, I have little doubt he will stick to the players he has.

I don’t see any new keepers coming in. Flaps and Wojo have both been very good this season. Almunia is supposedly over his “injury,” and Mannone’s loan spell at Hull is coming to an end as well. If anything, a keeper will be headed out (more on that below).

In terms of attackers, I don’t see Wenger bringing in anyone who can help us right away. He’s pretty happy with his attackers, and rightfully so — we’re scoring plenty of goals and looking pretty dangerous. But this is Wenger we’re talking about, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he brought in some younger players who have shown some promise. Arsenal scouts have been spotted at several Southampton games following the progress of 17 year-old midfielder Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (pictured above, and possibly the most English name I’ve ever heard). Liverpool are reportedly following him as well, so we may have some competition. But he’s highly thought-of, and Southampton needs money badly, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Wenger goes in for him.

The other guy I could see us going in for is pint-sized (5’7) Belgian playmaker Eden Hazard (above). Hazard is nearly 20, but has been playing regularly, and playing well, for both Lille in Ligue 1 and the Belgian national team. He seems to fit what Arsenal like to do and how we like to play in a lot of ways, and Arsenal have been heavily rumored to be interested, but he’s not exactly a secret at this point, and since so many teams are interested, he won’t come cheap. It’s also not immediately clear where he would play for Arsenal, given the glut of attacking players at our disposal and the struggle to get everyone minutes as it was. Although I have to say I wouldn’t cry any tears if we sold Arshavin and used that money to get Hazard as a direct replacement. Won’t happen, but I’m just saying.

So that’s pretty much it, then. More of the same old, same old. Young players come in who can’t contribute immediately (and remember that Wenger has already secured the signing of Japanese player Ryo Miyaichi, who will join the team in January), and the only experienced players we are likely to see are guys well past their prime who are nothing more than stop-gaps. I know it’s not what some of you want to hear, but I have to think this is how it will play out.

Players Leaving

Well, this could get interesting. Let’s start with goalkeeper, where we now have 4 keepers, which is at least 1 (if not 2) too many. The obvious candidate is Manuel Almunia, who is now surplus to requirements, and if rumors are to be believed, is so unhappy with being demoted that he doesn’t want much of anything to do with the club. I think Wenger, and almost all Arsenal fans, would prefer Flaps or Wojo, or even Vito, as our # 1 to Almunia (when I did the poll on who should be our starting keeper recently, Almunia got less than 2% of the vote).

So I think Wenger, and the fans, would be fine with Almunia leaving. And Almunia wants to leave. The problem is that Wenger made what looks to be a bad mistake when he gave Almunia contract rumored to be around 50,000/week. That’s probably about twice what most any other team would be willing to pay him, and that’s going to be a big problem. There are teams that wouldn’t mind having Almunia as their starting keeper, and Almunia would like to go there, but those teams will not match that salary, and Almunia is unlikely to take a 50% pay cut when right now he’s making a small fortune for doing literally nothing.

I’m not sure how it’s going to get resolved. I think Arsenal will do what they can, which is probably limited to just offering him up for little or no money in terms of a transfer fee to anyone who can agree personal terms with him. Beyond that, though, it just depends on how much money another team is willing to pay him, and how big of a paycut he is willing to take to get back to playing again. Honestly, if I had to predict, I say he will probably stay through the end of the season. It will be interesting to follow.

On defense, we have already essentially confirmed that Havard Nordtveit will join Borussia Monchartaldkfn imminently, so he is sold and gone. Beyond that, I don’t really see it. There are occasionally rumors that a team in Italy is interested in one of our right-backs, but Sagna and Eboue both seem pretty happy at Arsenal, and I don’t think Wenger is looking to move either. Especially since Eboue just signed a new deal with the club a few days ago.

In midfield, I think the situation is pretty settled. Occasionally a rumor will pop up about Denilson or someone, but Denilson personally shot those rumors down on Twitter. Wilshere and Ramsey are going nowhere, and neither is Song. The Cesc to Barca rumors will undoubtedly flare up again, but if and when that day arrives, I think it will be a summer deal, not a January deal. Rosicky to Germany rumors or activity could come up, too, but it seems like he’s relatively content to be a substitute/squad player at Arsenal, and while he’s clearly not first-choice, he has played in 23 matches in all competitions for Arsenal this year, so he can certainly feel like he’s an important member of the team. He also seems pretty happy at the team and has a good relationship with his teammates, and likely knows that Arsenal is his best chance to win a major trophy. He is 30, and with the bevy of promising young players bubbling up through Arsenal’s ranks, his time is certainly limited, but I think at the very least he will see out this season, and probably next season as well, with the club, before he moves on.

Up front, I don’t see much changing either. Chamakh just got here, van Persie has no desire to leave. Bendtner occasionally gets mouthy and says something to indicate that he’s unhappy, but he always retracts it and says how much he likes Arsenal, and I honestly think his ego is so big that he won’t accept a move to a smaller club. So he would only leave if a bigger club came in for him, which I don’t see, although Bayern Munich was in the rumor mill at one point. I suppose Vela could move on, and I think most would not miss him for all that he’s offered Arsenal’s first-team so far, although from what Wenger is saying (more below), I think a loan is much more likely for him.

Players Going Out on Loan

This could be a big one. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mannone, once he gets healed up (hopefully before the end of the month) from his thigh injury, goes back out on loan. I think he’s pretty clearly third-choice at best for Arsenal at the moment, and the chances of us needing him are pretty slim, but he showed at Hull that he is more than capable of handling the Championship, so if there’s a team in need, he would be a good option.

Defensively I don’t see too much activity. Botelho, Bartley, and Traore are all on season-long loans already. Hoyte is a non-factor. Cruise and Evina are on loans which will likely be extended or replaced with other loan deals. The only real other candidate I see is Ignasi Miquel, who has probably performed well enough to get a spot with a Championship side for the rest of the season. But given Arsenal’s lack of depth at the back, I kind of think Wenger might keep him around playing in the reserves as injury cover.

In midfield, a raft of players are already out on loan. Galindo is on a season-long loan, as are Coquelin, Barazite, and Randall. Lansbury’s loan spell at Norwich is over, and it will be interesting to see if Wenger keeps him around with the first-team for the rest of the season, where he is unlikely to see much in the way of playing time, or sends him back out on loan. By all accounts he impressed at Norwich, so I’m sure he would have no trouble finding a suitor. Aaron Ramsey is back from Nottingham Forest, and I would be shocked to see him head back out – I think he’s at Arsenal to stay now.

In terms of younger midfield players who could head out, I think the obvious candidate is Chuks Aneke (above). Aneke has absolutely dominated the Reserves this year, is one of the brightest midfield prospects in all of England, and a Championship side looking for a playmaker could do a lot worse than the 17 year-old. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he went out somewhere. Other than that, there are players who are playing regularly, and well, for the Reserves – Yennaris, Ozyakup, and Eastmond – who could definitely see some time away if a lower-division team is interested and it’s a good fit.

Wellington will definitely need a loan spell to somewhere where he can play, since he can’t get into England this season due to work permit issues. I think one of the first orders of business is finding a team in Spain that’s a good fit for him and which will give him chances to play. Miyaichi is a possibility as well, although given that he will just be joining up with the team in January, I think the emphasis will be on getting him settled into London and the Arsenal set-up, so I think he’ll be in London for the remainder of the season.

Up front, there are several obvious high-profile candidates in JET and Carlos Vela. JET has been treating the Reserves League like Godzilla treats Tokyo so far this season, and is clearly ready to make the next step up. He’s good enough that I suspect either Premiership sides badly looking for a good center forward (Everton? Blackpool? Birmingham?) or some of the better Championship sides would love to be able to use him for the rest of the season. Carlos Vela may be in the same boat. He has hardly played at all at Arsenal so far this season, and he needs some minutes. He’s skilled enough and has enough of a good reputation that I suspect teams in England and on the continent would love to have him for the remainder of the season to give them some flair and cutting edge in front of the net, and Wenger has publicly stated that he’s willing to entertain offers because Vela does need more playing time. Both Bolton and Newcastle have been floated as possible loan destinations for Vela, and both would likely be pretty good fits.

Elsewhere among our strikers, Afobe’s spell at Huddersfield is almost up. He’s been playing well, though, but recently voiced his displeasure on Twitter at not starting a match, so he may not have the best of relationships there. If they can smooth things over, he could stay there. If not, it wouldn’t surprise me if the team found him another loan – a striker with his talent, even at his age, will not have a shortage of interested teams. Sanchez Watt is at Leeds for the remainder of the season. Gilles Sunu’s Arsenal career seems to have more of less stalled out, and the 19 year-old may well go out on loan for the remainder of the season, although his loan spell with Derby County last spring did not seem to do much good for his development.

Conclusion

So that’s that, then. I think that’s how it will play out – a lot of players heading out on loan, maybe a young attacking player or two coming in, with some possibility of a stop-gap defender. We will have Nordtveit plus maybe one or two others leave, but I would be surprised if it was anyone who has played a big role in the season up until this point. So no one who will really make an impact on what is left of the 2010-2011 season. But I don’t see us losing any of our regulars upon whom we depend, either – like it or not, I think the first-team we have is the team we’re going to be watching the rest of the season.

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Category: Arsenal News, Transfer News and Player Movement, Transfers