Summer Preview: Ten Questions, Part I: Who’s Leaving?

Okay, summer is here, and you know what that means. Fun in the sun, kids out of school, and ludicrous transfer rumors. Travis and I will certainly be posting/updating this site regularly this summer as things pop up (although if you’re interested in, you know, actual football, I encourage you to check out The Offside’s MLS page, which Travis does a fantastic job with), but I thought I’d go ahead and do a little “summer preview” of the ten big questions/stories facing Arsenal this summer. So, without further ado, here is the first half, mainly concerned with possible departures from North London:

1. Is Wenger leaving?
HELL NO. There’s been a lot of talk recently about Wenger possibly leaving this summer to take over at Real Madrid. It’s just not going to happen. The bottom line is this—in 2007-2008, Real Madrid won the league. Do you know how they rewarded their manager? By firing him. Arsenal hasn’t won anything since 2005, and hasn’t finished higher than 3rd in the league in years. Arsene Wenger still has a job, and won’t be losing it any time soon. Why would he want to leave a situation where he’s a legend, beloved by the board, the fans, and the players, for a situation where the media, fans, and board room are all completely nuts, and even winning the league isn’t enough to keep your job? He doesn’t. If anything, this little bluff is his way of getting some appreciation (in the form of “Please don’t leave us, Arsene!” cries from fans, players, and directors alike), as well as possibly freeing up a little more money for the summer—if he tells the board, “Well, at Madrid they’ll give me £60 million pounds to spend each year,” our board may give him a little bit of cash to throw around, even if it’s still only a shadow of what Madrid could offer. (EDIT: And unless something unprecedented happens, this turned out to be correct. Real just announced the hire of Villareal boss Manueal Pelligrini today. I’m 1 for 1! Look out Miss Clio, there’s a new psychic in town!)

2. Is Adebayor leaving?
YES. Adebayor really lost the Arsenal fans last season. After all the goals he scored in 2007-2008, he was a fan favorite. But then he openly flirted with Barcelona and Milan all summer, and just generally didn’t handle the situation or the year very well. I’ve written in more detail previously about why I think Adebayor should go. Milan still seems a likely landing place, and there is talk that since former Milan boss Carlo Ancellotti is taking over at Chelsea, he could try to bring him across town. He can still bring back a little cash, too, although, as evaldo previously noted in the comments, he is a depreciating asset. But in a world where Robinho is worth £32.5 million, can you honestly say that we can’t get at least £20-£25 million for Adebayor? If that kind of offer comes in, and I think it will, I think Wenger will pull the trigger.

3. Is Gallas leaving?
YES. Sure, Wenger will say all the right things about how Gallas played well down the stretch, took being stripped of the captaincy remarkably well, and is an important part of his plans for the club. The first two of those things are true, the third is not. I’ll give him a lot of credit—for as much of a wanker as he was to get stripped of the captaincy in the first place, he did take it with a lot of poise and composure, and continued to play well for us all spring. But deep inside, he’s got to be seething, and I think he’d love to return to one of the bigger French clubs, where he’d be back in his home country and a major star. Furthermore, you’ll remember that Kolo Toure handed in a transfer request and actually spoke to Manchester City in January, primarily because he and Gallas just plain don’t like each other. But Wenger talked him down and he stayed. I have to think that conversation went like this, “Look, I know you hate him, but just stay—we need you and he’ll be gone in the summer, making you the anchor of our backline starting next season.” Gallas is actually still good enough at his age (32 at the beginning of the season) to bring back a little money in return, too.

4. Is Cesc going to Barcelona?
NO. This pops up every summer, and this summer will be no different. But I’ll save you some time—approximately 3-4 times this summer, someone from either FC Barcelona itself or one of the Barcelona-friendly Spanish newspapers will report that Fabregas is coming to Barcelona. A day or two later, Cesc, being the solid lad he is, will take the anti-Adebayor approach and come out and firmly deny it. And come August, Cesc will be wearing the red # 4 again, as well as the captain’s armband. Cesc likes London, likes his teammates, likes the fans, likes the club, likes Wenger, likes being captain, and has repeatedly said that he’s not leaving Arsenal any time soon. But even putting all that aside, the fact is that Cesc would have a hard time getting any first-team action in Camp Nou any time soon. With Henry and Iniesta on the wings, Eto’o up top, Senna Yaya playing the holding role, and Xavi and Messi playing the attacking midfielder roles, exactly who does Cesc replace? He and Xavi have such similar games, and Xavi is better at the moment and a Barca legend. Would Barcelona pay over the moon to get Cesc just to sit on the bench? And, more importantly, why would Cesc leave Arsenal, where he’s the captain and leader of the squad, to go sit on the bench? It wouldn’t surprise me if Cesc leaves to go back to Spain at some point to be Xavi’s replacement, but it won’t be this summer.

5. Will Robin van Persie re-sign?
YES. Probably. Robbie is only under contract for one more season. And especially after getting nothing from Flamini when we couldn’t negotiate a deal during the 2007-2008 season and his contract expired, I have to think Wenger probably doesn’t want to go into the season with such an important player in the last year of his contract. So I think we’ll either sign van Persie to a new multi-year deal this summer or look to sell him. But I think he’ll re-sign. He made a lot of noise this season about how he was here to win trophies, and that he wanted to move elsewhere if we couldn’t match his ambition. But then after our respective semifinal runs in the FA Cup and Champions League, and the signing of Arshavin, I think his concerns were answered and it seemed like he was definitely willing to re-sign. And frankly, I’m not sure what other world class clubs out there would give him the guaranteed first-team action he gets at Arsenal. Completely wild prediction? I say he signs a new four or five year deal worth around £80/k a week, stays at Arsenal another 3-4 years (he’ll be 26 at the beginning of the season, so such a contract would take him into his late 20s), and then moves back to Holland and finishes his career with PSV, Ajax, or Feyenoord. But I don’t see him moving this summer.

More coming tomorrow, with who’s coming in….

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