Swansea – Arsenal Preview

Swansea

Position 12th, 5-8-7 (23 points, -3 goal differential)

Home Record: 4-5-1, + 8 goal differential

Recent Form: DLDDW

Last Meeting: Arsenal 1 – Swansea 0 (September 10, 2011)

Back in action tomorrow in a “European” tie as we travel all the way to Wales to take on Swansea.

And I think this could be a tough one. You’ll recall that we only beat Swansea at the Emirates when their goalkeeper decided that this was a good idea, and Arshavin scored his only league goal of the season:

Swansea’s strength all season has been not conceding goals. Their defense is currently 5th in the EPL with just 23 goals conceded in 20 matches, behind only City, Liverpool, United, and Spurs (for reference, Chelsea is tied for 8th, with 25, and Arsenal are tied for 12th, with 28). In their past 6 league matches, they have conceded a total of 3 goals, and have not conceded more than 1 goal to anyone. On the flipside, we’ve been struggling to score. Since putting 4 past Wigan on September 3, we’ve scored 6 goals in our last 6 league matches, and have only managed multiple goals once, against Aston Villa. Throw in the fact that Swansea have only conceded 4 goals at home all season in 10 matches, and I am very concerned about our ability to get goals in this one.

We’ll hopefully be helped by the return of a rested Robin van Persie. He had been given a week or so long holiday to Dubai last week when we were playing in the FA Cup, and he no doubt needed the rest, as his back was likely pretty sore from having carried the team on it all season. The players have also been talking all week about how big a different Thierry Henry has meant in the dressing room, too, so perhaps the added motivation and professionalism will show up on the pitch.

Swans have been doing it in a very unconventional (for a promoted team) way. They don’t concede possession and keep everyone behind the ball. On the contrary, they stick to the old “you can’t score if you don’t have the ball” adage. Swansea have excelled at getting and retaining possession. They do it even against the Premiership’s top sides — Swansea had 58% of possession against Manchester City, 50% against Chelsea, 50% against Manchester United, and 56% against Spurs. The tricky thing is that they don’t necessarily look to do a lot with the possession. Frequently they are all too happy to simply pass the ball sideways and backwards, and will really force a team like Arsenal to work very hard to win the ball back and chase the game. Our midfield trio of Song, Ramsey, and Arteta, who have played a lot of matches lately, will really have to be up for 90 minutes of maximum effort to get the ball as much as we’d like here.

In theory, this should be a team that we match up well with. The fact that Swansea like to play mainly in midfield and are not particularly direct with the ball should be a good thing for our high defensive line, and we should be able to crowd them out, win the ball back, and break with it once we do. But as anyone who watched the first match in September will remember, they played very well and frustrated us all match long, so it won’t be easy.

As for us, here’s my best guess for a lineup:

Wojo

Djourou – Squillaci – Koscielny – Miquel

Song – Arteta

Walcott – Ramsey – Arshavin

van Persie

Bench: Almunia, Mertesacker, The OC, Benayoun, Rosicky, Henry, Park

Wojo in goal, obviously. Coquelin is out another few weeks, so he’s not an option, and Mertesacker is recovering from illness, and will face a health test today, but hasn’t practiced all week and I doubt he’ll start. It would be great if he did, though. Koscielny will definitely start. Djourou is back from suspension, so he will almost certainly be involved. Miquel starts on the left. It’s kind of hard to believe given how often he’s been called into action for us, but this would be Miquel’s first Premier League start. Then I guess it would come down to whether to start Yennaris on the right beside Koscielny and Djourou in the middle, or to play Djourou on the right and have Squillaci pair Koscielny in the middle. It speaks volumes about the lack of confidence I have in Squillaci, an experienced defender who has played in a Champions League final and was a senior international on a World Cup squad less than 2 years ago, that I would actually prefer to see Yennaris, but we’ll see if Wenger agrees.

One thing to watch for is that one of the reasons our attack has suffered so much this past month has been the failure of the full-backs to the support the attack with overlapping runs which provide width and force the defense to expand and create more space and gaps through the middle. You can’t really blame young guys being forced to play out of position like Miquel and Coquelin, but it will be interesting to see if this is something the coaching staff has emphasized to them in training this week.

In the middle, despite how many miles they’ve logged, I think we’ll stick with our tried and true 3 of Song, Arteta, and Ramsey. As I said, I think they will be crucial, because Swansea will look to get and keep the ball as much as possible, and our midfielders will have to work to win the ball back. Rosicky has been ill along with Mertesacker, so it’s unclear if he will even be available for the bench for this one.

Up front, van Persie will return. I suspect we’ll see Walcott out on the right, and hopefully he’s over his illness and can put his recent spell of bad form behind him. Who plays out on the left is an interesting question. I thought Arshavin did very well against Leeds apart from terrible finishing. He’d probably be my pick. But The OC played well against Leeds, too. And against a team where we need hard workers to win the ball, you can’t go wrong with Yossi. Gervinho is gone for a month, so it will be interesting to see who Wenger views as the next best option.

At the risk of stating the obvious, this one is crucial. They pretty much all are from here on out. It’s becoming very clear that the race for at least 4th, and possibly 3rd, is going to be very, very tight this season. I doubt more than a point or two will separate 4th from 5th, and we want to be on the right side of that, so getting 3 points from every winnable match is crucial. Spurs are now 9 points clear, and while most Gooners on Twitter seem content to just use “shit” “cunt” “1961″ and “forever in our shadow” a lot to discuss this, the reality is this: Spurs are good. Very good. They are talented, they defend well, they have stayed healthy, and they’re proving it on the field. And the bottom line is that matches and trophies aren’t won by history, or reputation, or the shirt you wear — it’s won by playing better on the field. And if we want to celebrate St. Totteringham’s Day this season, we really have to step it up, because they have the inside track on 3rd and maybe more. And if they don’t falter, that would mean that only one of Chelsea, Arsenal, and Liverpool make the Champions League next season. We’re 1 point behind Chelsea and 2 points ahead of Liverpool. Spurs play home to Wolves, which should be a win for them, Chelsea are home to Sunderland, who are playing very well right now, but you’d still fancy Chelsea to win at Stamford Bridge, and Liverpool host Stoke. Since all of our competitors are at home, we really need to take 3 from this one not to lose any ground.

Let’s go get 3 points. Come on Arsenal.

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Category: Arsenal News, Fixtures, Premiership, Swansea