

Take Your Pick – Mata or Nasri
By: Homey | July 7th, 2011I’m not sure it will come down to anything quite that simple, but for the purposes of today’s exercise, let’s compare the impact of Juan Mata vs. Samir Nasri. First we’ll need to make a couple of assumptions. The first assumption is that we’ll keep Cesc. The Mata-Nasri discussion is still a valid debate whether we keep Cesc or not, but I think it will be simpler if we assume for the moment that Cesc stays. The second assumption, which requires us to take a bit of a leap of faith, is to assume that if we did sell Nasri, we’d use all of that money in an adequate replacement.

Reading the news, it appears Nasri met with Wenger today, July 7, to discuss his future. I haven’t really read any report on how that went just yet. But let’s also assume that the many reports out there are correct, and that we can get something in the range of £20 million for Nasri from one of the two Manchester clubs. (I’ve also heard Chelsea tossed around in this discussion, but not nearly as seriously or as often.) Although all of this sounds like awful news on the surface, I have to admit that upon further review, it’s not nearly as bad as I previously thought. Part of the reason it sounds so bad is that it would make our rivals stronger and make us weaker. But let me explain why I’m not so worried.
OK, let’s first examine what impact Nasri would have on Man Utd. It’s very clear to me that if he went to Man Utd, he’d be used as a central attacking midfielder. This would be in keeping with statements he made about wanting to play more centrally. And it also lines up with what’s on their roster. They’re pretty set on the wings with Nani, Young, Park, Valencia, and others. They showed in their FA Cup win over us that they can even deploy the Da Silva brothers on the wing to great effect. But their current weak spot is in the middle, especially after the retirement of Scholes. (Maybe that’s why they were exposed by Barca just as badly as we were.) Their central options at the moment are basically just Carrick, Fletcher, a 50-year-old Giggs, and not a whole lot else. So Nasri would look to slot in there. Of course he’d make them stronger. And in my view, he’d certainly be a better option than Scholes was at the tail end of his career. However, consider the alternative for a moment. If Man Utd really has another £20 million or so to play with this summer, would Nasri be the best fit for them in the middle? I love his quickness and dribbling, but is he really the true passer/creator type you’d want at the most elite level? Wouldn’t Man Utd be better off with either Sneijder or a similar player, rather than transferring Nasri from the wing to the middle? Furthermore, if we were to keep Cesc, and they were to have Nasri, wouldn’t we feel we still had a clear edge at that most important position in the middle?

Now let’s look at Man City for a moment. For me, they always look pretty strong on paper, but still haven’t really put it all together just yet. Maybe that’s a matter of a more aggressive playing style. I’m not sure. I remember how painfully boring they were while trying to play us to a 0-0 draw last season. Anyway, I would say that like Man Utd, if there’s any position they lack, it’s also someone like Cesc in the middle to create and make decisive passes. I guess Yaya Toure is the closest thing, but still not the same sort of player. But I would tend to think that with the wingers they currently have on their roster, they would also want to play Nasri in the middle. Again, I would make the same statement that I made about United. Pick your poison – would you rather they sign Nasri, or would you rather they get a Sneijder-type of central midfielder? And with City, they certainly have unlimited funds to get whoever they want. So if they wanted Kaka or the highest-priced player out there, they could do it. Would it be so injurious to us if they “only” settled for Nasri? And again, at that central spot, we would retain a clear edge over them if we retained Cesc.
Ok, now let’s talk about Nasri himself. I like Nasri. I stated as much a few weeks ago in my debut blog. I want him to stay. But it’s not all positive with him right now. He’s made some recent statements that have angered the fans, and he runs the risk of almost reaching the same level as Adebayor did in his last year at Arsenal. The other issue is simply his play on the field. He’s basically been at the top level for about 2/3 of one season so far. At the end of last season, when we really needed a lift, he went missing to a large extent. In his previous two seasons with Arsenal, he scored 11 goals in all competitions combined. So I think he’s a good, solid player. One that’s important to the club. But not someone who can’t be replaced.

Now let’s turn to Mata for a moment. I’ll again remind everyone that I’m the complete donkey of the blogging team. Outside of Arsenal, the top English clubs, and a few of the elite teams in Europe, I don’t know all the players too well. So my knowledge of Mata comes from YouTube, discussing him with JG, and looking at his stats. But from what I can glean from those sources, I have to say that he compares favorably with Nasri in my humble view.
He’s a year younger than Nasri, but has scored 37 goals for Valencia in all competitions in the last three years (compared to 26 for Nasri in the same span of time). He could bring with him an additional benefit of being a companion for Cesc if we can keep the captain around for another year. I don’t really know how well they know each other, but I would assume it would be a benefit. But the other thing that really jumps out at me is how low his reported salary is. While I’m the first to admit lack of knowledge of various soccer talents around the globe, I think I’m pretty handy with a calculator. I guess I want to be like Swiss Ramble when I grow up.
Mata, according to the Express, makes “only” about £30,000 per week at Valencia. Another source estimates his pay a bit higher, at roughly £51,000 per week. (The second source requires converting euros to pounds, and then annual salary to weekly.) Either way, that’s way below the reported £90,000 per week we’ve offered to Nasri, and quite a bit below the reported £65,000 per week that Gervinho will be making. (Ugh… I read the Gervinho figure on Wiki earlier today, and was about to provide a link, but now it’s been taken down.)
Let’s assume for the sake of argument that the £23 million transfer fee for Mata is what we’d have to pay Valencia for his services. And we’ll also assume that we could make £20 million for Nasri. In that context, we’d be £3 million behind. However, if we could pay Mata £65,000 per week (still a healthy pay raise for him), compared to the £90,000 per week for Nasri, we’d be saving £25,000 per year week. So we’d make back the £3 million deficit in just over two seasons of salary.
Of course none of us really care about the exact amounts we would have to pay for these players. Even if we had to pay a little more for Mata, we’d all just say it’s about time we finally spent some money on a quality player. However, I had to throw the discussion of the numbers in there to convince myself that it’s still consistent with what Wenger might actually do.
Ok, so let’s get to the final analysis. We’ve already seen that money is almost exactly equal. Mata is a year younger, but they’re both in about the same stage of their careers. You could argue that it’s almost always better to have continuity on your team, and to retain good players rather than replace them with new ones. You could also argue that with Nasri being French, he fits in well with the large French contingent on the team. On the flip side, you could argue that Nasri has worn out his welcome to an extent in the last month. And perhaps it would be good to add a fellow Spaniard for Cesc, assuming he stays. Also, it doesn’t hurt that Mata has recently been on a World Cup winner and U-21 winner, so he might have more of a winner’s mentality.
But all in all, the biggest question is simply who is a better player. Having not watched much of Mata, I’m not the most qualified to answer that question. I merely bring some data to you, the voter, and leave that decision up to you. At this point, you can weigh in below and we can hopefully sort this one out.
Finally, in programming news, I think the Gervinho thing will finally be made official on July 8. There was talk it would be announced next Monday, but with the club headed out to Asia on Sunday, that wouldn’t make much sense. So if it’s announced Friday, then be looking for Darren’s blog on that piece of news. I think JG will have something up shortly after that. Until then, have a good weekend.
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The grass withers, the flower fades, but the word of our God stands forever. Isaiah 40:8
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