West Brom – Arsenal Preview

West Brom

Position: 16th, 8-8-13 (32 points, -15 goal differential)

Home Form: 5-5-4 (-1 goal differential)

Recent Form: LDDDW

Last Meeting: Arsenal 2 – West Brom 3 (September 25, 2010)

So, time for a few scary stats. There have only been three league matches so far this season where Almunia, Squillaci, and Koscielny have all started. We’ve gone 1-1-1 in those matches, kept 0 clean sheets, and conceded 5 goals (1.6 per game, nearly twice as many as our average of .88 when those three are not starting together — yeah, yeah, sample size and all that, but still…). That three-game stretch culminated in an embarrassing 3-2 loss to West Brom at the Emirates. Well, now we have no choice but to start those three together again, probably for the remainder of the season if healthy. And first up? A chance for redemption as we travel to West Brom.

That game was undoubtedly the highlight of West Brom’s season, and probably the highlight of Roberto di Matteo’s tenure as boss for the club (at least in the Premiership). They currently sit one point above relegation, with an inferior goal difference to a couple of teams below them, so they are currently in position to escape relegation by the thinnest of margins. They’ve been the prototypical “yo-yo club” in recent years, and would surprise no one by being relegated this season.

That game made for quite a long day. We were pretty dreadful in the first half, and were lucky to go into the break at 0-0, as Almunia saved a penalty from Chris Brunt (supposedly when Almunia suffered his mysterious “arm injury”). Then West Brom came out after the break and scored 3 goals in a 23 minute span to go up 3-0. Almunia was at fault for at least a couple of them, we were shambolically defensively and toothless in attack (we took 28 shots, but only 6 were on target), and honestly, we really did look like we thought we would win just by showing up and lacing up our boots that day. Finally after going down 3 goals with just 15 minutes left, we started to rouse from our slumber a bit — or at least Samir Nasri did, as we scored two late goals to make it somewhat more respectable, but in the end it was too little, too late.

After that match, changes were made. Fabianski took over the # 1 goalkeeper role from Almunia and gave us a lot more at that position, and Djourou got a chance to come into lineup, which allowed him to have the breakout season he’s had. These were both very much changes for the better. But now Djourou is likely out for the season, as are Flaps and Wojo, and we’ve got to go to war with the army we have, whether we like it or not. Almunia has been decent for us in matches here and there, but it’s been a couple of years since he’s put together a string of matches where you could really say he’s been consistently good. I’ve always like Manuel because I think he likes the club and is a good teammate, but I think at the end of the day he’s just not a good enough keeper to backstop a team to a title. I really hope he’ll surprise us all by proving me wrong over the next 2 months.

It’s an interesting time to be playing West Brom. For most of the season under di Matteo, they were very much an open, attacking side — they’ve scored as many goals as Liverpool, and have only scored 2 fewer than Tottenham, who seems to get a lot of credit for being very exciting and open. Chris Brunt has been a revelation on the wing, and Peter Odemwingie has been one of the signings of the season, notching 9 goals and 4 assists for the Baggies. But only Blackpool have conceded more than West Brom’s 54, and if they get relegated, that will obviously be the reason why. But they brought in Roy Hodgson to save them from relegation, and open, attacking football is not Hodgson’s game, and I’m sure he will be trying to get them to tighten up and play a bit more conservatively, and they will be tough to break down. They’re really playing quite well lately, too — unbeaten in their last 4.

And they’ve been quite good at the Hawthorns this season, with a very respectable home record of 5-5-4. It won’t be an easy match. But it’s the kind of match that we have to be able to win over the next 2 months if we are to be legitimate title contenders. 6 of our remaining 10 fixtures are on the road, and aside from a trip to Blackpool, this is as soft a road game as we’re going to see (the others are Tottenham, Bolton, Stoke, and Fulham). As is the case with all our games from here on out, 3 points is essential.

In team news, injuries are again the dominant story. Our out for the season list now looks like: Flaps, Wojo, Vermaelen, (probably) Djourou, and Frimpong. Cesc, Song, and Theo are all out for this one, but will hopefully return after the international break. Diaby’s battling an injury as well. That’s rough — that’s probably 6 out of our first-choice 11 injured at the moment, and we’ll need some guys who haven’t really stepped up yet this season to do so tomorrow. Here’s my best guess at the team sheet:

Almunia

Sagna-Squillaci-Koscielny-Clichy

Wilshere-Denilson

Bendtner-Nasri-Arshavin

van Persie

Bench: Lehmann (!), Miquel, Gibbs, Eboue, Diaby, Ramsey, Rosicky, Chamakh

Almunia is pretty nailed on in goal, as are Squillaci and Koscielny in the center of defense — we just don’t have any other realistic options at the moment due to injuries. Having had a week of rest, I see no reason why Clichy and Sagna wouldn’t start in this one, either. Wilshere will start, probably in the withdrawn role. With Song out, there’s some question as to who will start alongside him — Diaby or Denilson could see starts in that role, and Ramsey did look pretty decent against United when brought on as a sub, so I guess it wouldn’t be a stunner if he got the start.

I just hope to God Wenger doesn’t try to play Diaby, Denilson, and Wilshere together again. As we’ve discussed ad nauseum and seen against Sunderland and Manchester United, it just doesn’t work. At all. In any configuration. None of those players are really capable (or, in Jack’s case, ready) to play in the Cesc role, and it really kills our attack. Hopefully he’ll put Nasri or at least Rosicky in that role (I continue to lobby for Arshavin to be given a shot, but that will no doubt continue to fall on deaf ears). Nasri and Arshavin will definitely start in some capacity — one of them will play out left, and if the other isn’t in the middle, he will be out right. If one of them is in the middle, either Bendtner or Rosicky will play out wide to the right. And if van Persie is healthy, he starts at striker. And thank God for that.

I think it will be a big test for some guys. Almunia was pretty poor when he was our starting keeper at the beginning of the season, and while he played well enough against Barcelon and Manchester United, big games have never been the problem with him — it’s games exactly like this one where he’s struggled. Squillaci has been pretty disappointing this year, and I’m sure I’m not alone in being quite worried that he’s going to be an omnipresent guy for us in the run-in — now would be a great time for him to step up and show that he’s capable of organizing the line and doing the job for us. Diaby, Denilson, Bendtner, Rosicky, Chamakh — all players with a lot to prove, and all of them likely to get some chances to do so, if not tomorrow then over the next couple of months.

I am nervous about this one. West Brom’s decent at home, they beat us earlier this season, we’ve had to swap in some players (and, not to put too fine a point on it, some players who are inferior to the players they are replacing) because of injuries, and, as we’ve seen in past seasons, Arsenal has a bad tendency to go into bad spiral once we start getting knocked out of competitions. I don’t think West Brom are that good of a team, but all the elements appear to be in place for Arsenal to lay an egg in this one. We’ve heard a lot about how this Arsenal team has grown up, can win the title, is mentally strong, yadda yadda yadda, but now it’s time for them to go out and prove it. A win tomorrow, especially a decisive win, and good performances from the likes of Almunia, Squillaci, Diaby, Bendtner, etc. would go a long way towards quieting the critics and giving us fans some belief that we really can go out and win this.

Television info — live on Fox Soccer Plus/foxsoccer.tv in the USA, live on Sportsnet in Canada, and not televised in the UK.

Come on Arsenal.

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