

Any Hope for a Hazard-ous January?
By: Homey | October 3rd, 2011
I’m planning on running a larger blog sometime during the interlull, where I discuss all the various transfers in and out that could happen in January. Or at least all the ones that are remotely possible. And as I started thinking about Eden Hazard, I found quite a bit to write about. So I decided it should be a separate blog by itself, even if the chances of it happening may still be fairly low.
First I’ll take a look at his current club, Lille. While they captured a historic League/Cup double last year, they are a rather small club by almost any definition. (By way of comparison, Lille really isn’t even close to Götze’s Dortmund in any way.) Lille’s in a league that’s a notch below the elite in Europe, and they hadn’t won the league title since 1954. Their current stadium holds just under 18,000, although a new stadium is under construction that will hold around 50,000.
While their recent success is to be admired, their history says that it’s not going to last. Players will seek bigger clubs and bigger paychecks, and the club will start building all over again. This last summer, they already cashed in on a few players, with a net total of about €12.5 million coming in after all their deals were completed (not counting loan deals).
With Hazard, it’s really a question of when he’ll be sold, rather than if he’ll be sold. It’s about like when Rooney was at Everton, to make a rough comparison. So when would they be most likely to sell? They’re currently sixth in Ligue 1, but only four points behind the leaders. In the Champions League, they’ve managed only two points from their first two matches, and sit in third place in their group. They suffered a disappointing 2-2 home draw against CSKA Moscow in their first match, after leading by two goals.
One thought for Lille might be that if they miss out on the knockout rounds of the Champions League, then perhaps it would be a good time to cash in on their prize asset in January. They can tell themselves and their fans that they gave it their best shot and came up short, and now it’s time to move on. On the other hand, Hazard would be incredibly important in their quest for a spot in next year’s Champions League, or at least a spot in the Europa League. So by merely hanging on to him for another few months, they could secure a large payday next year as well.
Another question would be whether they’d want to open their new, larger stadium with their best player. Obviously that would make a lot of sense, and would require denying various suitors for another two transfer windows. On the flip side of that would be that a huge cash infusion might help pay some stadium-related debts.
My best guess regarding Lille’s position would be that Hazard will be sold next summer, but they could still be tempted in January for a huge sum of money. I really have no idea how much it would take, but my guess is that it would be at least £30 million.

Now let’s take a look at Hazard himself. Last year, he was named Ligue 1 Player of the Year. His form thus far this season has been terrific, with four league goals and three assists, plus one assist in the Champions League. (A couple of the goals have been rather tasty, as you can see here.) He’ll be turning 21 in January, so he’s old enough to be a mature player, but young enough to still have a long, bright future. His new teammate, Joe Cole, has recently gushed about Hazard. Cole, who has teamed with quite a few wonderful players already, said that Hazard is the best young player he’s ever seen at that age, and has the potential to be one of the best players in the world.
While Hazard has played quite a bit on the wing, I think it’s safe to say that his skills would fit well in the center of the Arsenal midfield. So do we have any reason to dream? I’ll start with three reasons to doubt it, but I’ll finish with four reasons to have a little hope.
1) Real Madrid, plus other major clubs. Obviously, Arsenal wouldn’t be the only club to be interested in such a talent. And if Lille decides to officially open the shop window, we’ll have to put forth a major bid to secure his services. Against a club like Real Madrid, the chances are slim at best. Not only are there a few top clubs with more money, but those clubs also can offer more hope of winning major titles. Fortunately, I haven’t read too many rumors about many of the biggest clubs lining up bids. But there have been recent rumors that Madrid has taken an interest, with Zidane being the one reportedly pushing for Hazard’s signature.
Since Madrid is the club I hear most often connected with Hazard, I decided to ask a former Real Madrid Offside blogger about these rumors. Corey, who’s now blogging at a new site, told me that there’s a chance that the rumors are true, due to Zidane’s influence. However, Corey suggested that even if Hazard were purchased, Mourinho might not play him, since Mourinho “only uses 12-13 players, and the rest are invisible to him.” It’s hard to imagine a player like Hazard occupying the bench, but there you go.
Looking at Madrid’s roster, they currently have the following players who are either midfielders or forwards: Alonso, Diarra, Altintop, Di Maria, Granero, Kaka, Khedira, Özil, Sahin, Ronaldo, Higuain, Callejon, and Benzema. So they have quite a few players at all of these positions, including several new recruits from this summer. In fact, Nuri hasn’t even Sahin the field for Madrid yet this season. (Waits for laughter… waits… Ok, fine, it was a lame attempt at a play on words.) Anyway, you’d like to think that with the depth and money invested in all of those positions at Madrid, they wouldn’t be looking to break the bank in January. Let’s hope anyway.
2) Arsenal’s (lack of) spending history under Wenger. This one is probably the biggest reason for doubt. While Arsenal has seen a lot of great players come through the ranks over the years, they’ve all either been brought up through the youth ranks, or they were purchased for a low price and blossomed at Arsenal. Arguably, the last time we bought a recognizable star from another club was either the Arshavin transfer for £13 million in January 2009, or the Bergkamp transfer for £7.5 million in 1995.
To secure the services of Hazard, either in January or next summer, Arsenal would have to pay perhaps two and a half times more than they’ve ever payed for one player. As I’ve mentioned a few times before, I’ll believe it when I see it.

3) Mikel Arteta. As the last transfer window drew to a close, there was talk that we were in the running for Götze, Hazard, and/or M’Vila. Not surprisingly to me, none of those big-money deals happened. So as the summer window drew to a close, we bought Arteta at literally the 11th hour of the last day. If we’d left ourselves with a gaping hole at that position, I could more easily see a big-money purchase in January. But it’s hard for me to see a £10 million transfer in late August, and then a much larger transfer at essentially the same position only a few months later. This despite the fact that Arteta certainly isn’t in the same league as Fabregas (or Hazard).
Now my reasons to have a little hope:
1) Wilshere’s injury, and our lack of depth/quality in the attacking midfield positions. As JG recently discussed, Wilshere is out for a while. If we play one true defensive midfielder and two more advanced, central midfielders, then we’re really quite thin there. We have Arteta and Ramsey, and then it drops off to Rosicky and Benayoun. And I shudder to type the name, but I suppose Diaby will be in that mix soon as well. So yeah, it’s not good.
Furthermore, as everyone has been saying since the loss to Spuds, Arteta and Ramsey are a big drop-off from what we’ve been used to seeing in our midfield for many years. Wenger refuses to give Arshavin a look in that position. So if there’s a position where we lack both depth and quality, it would have to be in the central attacking midfield area.
Looking at our depth at each position on the field, the only other spot where things are dodgy would be right back, where Sagna’s injury leaves us without either experience or depth. I know we can have our complaints about our backup strikers, or about our left back population. But the only spot where I could really see Wenger thinking we need to spend big would be at the central attacking midfield spot. By the time January rolls around, we’ll probably be bringing Sagna back, and so I doubt we’ll see any spending in that area, unless Jenkinson is shocking to a Traore level in the next few months.
2) A need to qualify for the Champions League. Obviously, a major drawback to Hazard in January would be that he wouldn’t be eligible to play for us in the Champions League (assuming we advance from our group, which appears likely at this point). However, the more pressing issue would be to at least finish fourth in the league, to qualify for next year’s Champions League. This has obviously become an even more pressing concern in light of our most recent loss to Spuds on Sunday. But by signing Hazard and hopefully squeezing out another place in next year’s Champions League, it would send a great message to RvP and others, who will go through contract talks within the next year. In addition, other players might see Arsenal as a good destination next summer, if we’re seen as an ambitious club.
Turning also to Wenger’s history, he seems to be much more willing to spend to elevate a bad situation to a good one, rather than spending to elevate a good situation into a great one. I’ve been repeatedly frustrated in previous years when I thought we were just this close to winning a major title, but the squad hasn’t been improved in the market. However, when our Champions League spot was under attack in 2009, Wenger opened the checkbook and brought in Arshavin. And when we shipped eight goals to Man Utd in August, there was another round of buying at numerous positions. All of this tells me that since we’ll almost certainly be desperately scrambling for fourth place in January, there’s more hope for spending than if we were in a battle for first place. Perhaps that’s a somewhat cynical view, but I think recent history has backed me up on that.
3) Arguably, Arsenal would be a perfect fit. OK, this one might sound crazy, but stick with me on this one for a minute. I’m trying to consider this from Hazard’s perspective, and I think there could be a reason to think he would favor Arsenal. Yes, there’s no question he could have a better shot at titles at Madrid or other places. But there are a few reasons why Arsenal might be more attractive, with the last point being my main one. But first, he could be paired with a former Lille teammate, and a current Belgian teammate, so he should be able to settle in quickly. And I’ll share a totally useless tidbit I learned while researching for this blog. And that is, he’s used to cool weather. Did you know that in the recorded history of Lille, the highest temperature was 36.6 Celcius? Where I live, we’ve had about 85 days over that number just this year. Anyway, I guess the point is that London wouldn’t seem too dreary, as it might for someone from Spain or South America.
But my main argument in favor of Arsenal over the giant clubs is that he would be assured of regular playing time, and would be a key component for a major team. So rather than being another guy for a team that’s going to win big things with or without him, he could prove that he’s a truly elite superstar if he could snap the trophy drought and be the guy in doing so. But at the same time, there would still be enough talent around him where winning something big would still be realistic. And at the age of 21 in January, he still has plenty of time to play at Arsenal for a few years, and still make a load of money and win a ton of titles elsewhere.
I know a lot of people want to look at our current form and place in the standings and declare that there’s no reason why he’d be interested. But let’s not get too carried away in the other direction here. We still have multiple really good players on the roster, and we’ve been in the Champions League since roughly the time when Hazard first started kicking a soccer ball. And just as Juventus and Liverpool were still able to attract talented players last summer, despite missing out on Europe, I think Arsenal is in the same category of still being a major club and attractive destination. So I think if we offered to bring in Hazard and pair him with RvP, Walcott, Ramsey, Song, and so forth, it would still be more much more appealing than staying at Lille and competing in Ligue 1.
4) We kept our powder dry in the summer transfer window! Ok, so I have to roll my eyes at these recent statements from Gazidis, because we always seem to keep our powder dry. Reportedly, there is still about £50 million in potential transfer money available for the future. Again, in terms of actually spending it, I’ll believe it when I see it. But at least in theory, a transfer for Hazard is not at all beyond our financial reach.
So to conclude all of this, how would I rate our chances? Well of course I’m still skeptical, for the reasons set forth in my “reasons to doubt.” I’ve read some recent rumors that we could use a player like Arshavin as a partial exchange. This would make a ton of sense, as it would clear up salary space, prevent the roster from getting too congested, and lessen the amount needed to compensate Lille. Plus it would help Lille reinforce their lineup, and at least have a chance at staying in contention in Ligue 1. (And yes, I know that our resident Arshavin cheering section will let me have it for even writing this, but seriously people… wouldn’t you give up Arshavin for Hazard in a nanosecond?)
Ultimately, I think we’ll make our inquiries in January, and act like we’re really doing something. But then we’ll be told that Wilshere is almost back (like a new signing), and we’ll either stay put or purchase a much cheaper option. Things like buying Hazard just don’t happen with the club we support, until I’m proven otherwise. So Wenger, if you’re reading this, please prove me otherwise. We just lost one of our best players for about three months. Another of our best players is out until early spring, most likely. We’re currently 15th in the league standings, and already eight points behind 4th place. Our form has been abysmal for roughly eight months. We need some hope. We need some talent. And I know there’s a risk that we could spend a ton of money and still miss out on next year’s Champions League and all of that money. But the greater risk for me is to do nothing, alienate the fans, lose more players to ambitious clubs, and dry up the revenue streams that have flowed for so many years. So Arsene, just this one time, prove me wrong and bring in someone with true elite quality.
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Jesus said to him, “I am the way, the truth, and the life. No man comes to the Father except through Me.” John 14:6.
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