Looking Ahead to the January Transfer Window

By: Homey | October 6th, 2011
   

Yes, I know it’s still a few months away. But since the interlull is upon us, this might be a good time to sort through some of the possibilities for January. There’s no way to touch on every rumor that’s been written over the last month, but I’ll try to recap the things that are most important and most likely. I’ll first address youth players who might be loan possibilities. Then I’ll address possible departures, and then finish with possible new arrivals.

1) Youth players. A few weeks ago, we did a Q&A with Jeorge Bird, who writes about Arsenal’s youth system players. He didn’t mention potential players going out on loan, but did indicate he thought loans are often a better challenge for young players on the cusp of breaking into the first team. Apparently, this is what Aneke is thinking, as he has recently stated a desire to spend some time on loan. Ozyakup could find himself in the same boat as well.
Miyaichi3
Although I haven’t heard any rumors about it, I have to start wondering about Miyaichi. Back on June 25, I ran several polls about various topics. One question was: “What young player are you most excited about?” The options were: Aneke, Miyaichi, Afobe, Bartley, and Someone else. Well, Miyaichi ran away with it, getting over 68% of the vote. So I think we were all excited. But since then, AOC was brought in, and has impressed in limited action. While it doesn’t seem like Miyaichi has done anything to fall out of favor, he seems to play a position where the club has the most depth. He’s been playing some with the reserves, and he seems a likely candidate for a loan spell.

Other than those three I just named, I’m really not nearly enough of an expert on our reserves to say who’s ready and who’s not. I would have said Afobe if not for his injury. Coquelin seems to be too much a part of the first team plans to leave on loan. So that leaves players like Miquel, Boateng, Freeman, and Watt as other possibilities.

Looking ahead at the schedule, we could theoretically advance all the way through the semifinals of the Carling Cup before exiting the month of January. So these players can be given a good run out for the first team a few times there, and then go on loan spells for the rest of the year. With our top prospects, loan deals to places like Bolton, Wigan, QPR, Swansea, and Wolves shouldn’t be out of the question. I would love to see our top guys get regular action in the Premier League. I just wonder if we ever deal with QPR in the future, if they’ll want their money back for Traore. Hopefully not.
9472131
2) Possible departures. I guess we always have to start this discussion with the usual suspects, so I’ll start with Almunia this time. He’s currently on an emergency loan at West Ham, but that doesn’t figure to last too long after Robert Green returns to action. Still, the writing is clearly on the wall for Almunia, so hopefully someone will be willing to take on his wages for a loan spell or purchase in January.

Diaby is just coming back from (another) injury, and most Arsenal fans hope he departs soon. But with Wilshere out for an extended time, I think Diaby will be about where Benayoun and Rosicky are in the midfield pecking order. So in other words, I expect him to see the field a bit here and there, and finish the season at Arsenal. Plus, I haven’t read any rumors about his departure either.

The third name on the “usual suspects” list is Squillaci, but I really haven’t read any rumors about his departure either. I would think that either he or Miquel will depart in January (sale or loan). Since Miquel is the much younger player, I hope Squillaci is sold, and Miquel is given a chance here and there. But I’m not holding my breath on this one either.

I’m still wondering where exactly Vito Mannone is. Witness protection program? I looked on his Wiki page, and he’s still listed as an Arsenal player. I thought I’d missed some news about him, perhaps. Anyway, I haven’t heard his name at all, and he’s clearly no better than #3 in the goalie pecking order. Since he’s still a young guy, I hope he moves on for his sake. Maybe it will happen in January.

As far as rumors about more significant players, I’ve read a few about Chamakh and Arshavin, but nothing that I particularly believe. With Chamakh, I wouldn’t really mind his sale if I knew what I was getting with Park. But since Park is still largely unknown to us, and since he’s clearly behind Chamakh in the pecking order right now, I don’t see this happening. Keeping in mind RvP’s injury history, we need the best backup possible. So if that’s still Chamakh at the moment, then I hope he sticks around. I suppose the other alternative would be to sell Chamakh and spend some serious money at this position. Naturally, I wouldn’t oppose it. And I have seen a few rumors about various center forward transfer targets. Still, I just can’t see it at the moment, so I think we need to get used to Chamakh as RvP’s backup for the rest of this season.

3) Possible arrivals. I would separate these into two different categories. The first would be more under-the-radar young players who wouldn’t be expected to contribute anything for the present season. An example would be the player I mentioned in my previous blog – Gerard Deulofeu. Another player in this category would be Watford defender Tommie Hoban. Anyway, I know these sorts of transfers are extremely difficult to speculate about, and they also don’t excite the fan base at the moment. So let’s turn our attentions to a few players who could possibly arrive in January and actually do something this season.

I already discussed quite a bit of this in my blog about Eden Hazard a few days ago. Basically, my thought is that the central midfield is the only position where I could realistically see Wenger spending heavily in January, based on our current roster of players.
Taarabt
With that possibility in mind, I’ll try to list the rumors in (very roughly) descending order of price: Hazard, Götze, Yann M’Vila, Marvin Martin, Yoann Gourcuff, Marko Marin,
Riccardo Montolivo, and Adel Taarabt.

Whew, that’s quite a collection of names, and I didn’t even bother mentioning the various players at Marseille who have been linked to Arsenal. That’s due to their current success in the Champions League, along with the fact that they’re in our qualifying group. So I’ll give my thoughts on the players I did list. I already spoke about Hazard at length, and I see no way Götze would leave in January. The M’Vila rumors have heated up lately, and I could theoretically see that happening. Both Martin and Marin seem to have a decent chance of happening, especially since neither is at a top club at the moment. And of all those listed, I would probably rate Taarabt as the favorite, since his price would likely be the lowest of the bunch, plus he’s recently been agitating for a move away. (It’s sad that I have to think that way, but I think it’s the truth.)
M'Vila
Also, it should be noted that of course not all of the above players are alike. And so our goals in the market, if we do in fact enter the market, will be based on how Wenger intends to deploy his current players. In midfield, if the mindset is to have one true defensive midfielder and two more advanced central midfielders, then I don’t see the need to spend big for M’Vila. But if he’s basically brought to be roughly what Wilshere was last year, then it could make sense. Then we’d perhaps have Arteta as the main starter as the one true attacking center midfielder, with Ramsey backing him up. When Wilshere returns (hopefully this year), he could theoretically rotate with either M’Vila or Arteta. I suppose all of that would make sense. Still, if we’re seriously talking about spending that type of money (upwards of £25 million), then my opinion would be to go ahead and do whatever it takes for Hazard. If that doesn’t work, then I would rather focus on Martin or someone like that – more of an attacking/creating threat.

So to sum all of this up, I’m sure we’ll be in a serious battle for league position in January, with plenty left to do to qualify for the Champions League. I really am not sure how much an £8-10 million sort of player would really add, besides more depth. I’d certainly welcome that, but I’m hoping for someone who’s a walk-in starter and cornerstone of the team. I’m not really asking for more than one purchase, since I think our depth is pretty solid almost everywhere at the moment. But hopefully, we’ll find someone to make an impact like Arshavin made a few years ago, and will similarly help us ensure a place in next year’s Champions League. As already established, we have the money, and we have the need. But will we pull the trigger on something? I guess we’ll know in about three months.

Finally, this is another reminder that we’re trying to make a go of it on our Twitter account. Below is a very funny, somewhat true, picture I found online today. It’s sad that a lot of Americans really do think about this way, although I don’t count myself among those ranks. Anyway, I posted this picture on the Twitter account, so this is an example of what you might be missing if you don’t follow us on there.
World according to Americans

——————————————————————–
I would rather be a doorkeeper in the house of my God than dwell in the tents of wickedness. Psalm 84:10b.


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  • bobjcanada

    Hey Homey;

    love your map!!!

    we know all about being "uninhabited"

  • formos

    I definitely think that M'Vila at the heart of midfield is more important than Hazard on a wing. off course both of them would be just great,but if I were to chose I'd go for M'Vila. I strongly believe that core of the team is in central midfield and strong core would see other troops rally around. M'Vila could definitely do that for Arsenal. 

  • Homey_Mills

    I think the idea with Hazard would be to play him centrally though.  If he's just used on the wing, then I would agree with you.  On top of that, the wing is where we already have some decent options.

  • formos

    Do we really? Who can play on the left wing? Diminutive Russian lost his head, he is good player, but he struggles to cope with loss of pace and until he gets it he is nearly useless. Gervinho is more natural to right wing or striker role, though he can adapt, but compared to Hazard he would remain ineffective on left side. Miyaichi could develop here, but it's at least few years for hi to reach required level.

    Playing Hazard centrally would be viable if we use him as ACM, but that's quite a different idea from my proposition to use M'Vila as box-to-box CM. Their game is very different and I believe M'Vila's style would benefit Arsenal greater as we lack players with bite and composure centrally. 

    On top of that, ACM position were we are covered the most: Arteta, Benayun, Ramsey and even Arshavin, though he never was used there. 

  • Patoux21

    Knowing Wenger being stingy when it comes to spending on players I don't think he would even spend on the midfield central position he will wait for Wilshere to recover from his injury and use Rosicky as his backup. I would think he may invest on a right back to cover for Sagna if his injury is worse than expected but of course he's not looking for a top player. Yes my respect for Wenger as Arsenal manager is very low since the last couple of years

  • Martin Angha is a possibly young player loan candidate. He'll be 18 in January, and has apparently really impressed for the Reserves this year as a center back. Could probably do a job for a lower division team and use the experience.

    On Mannone, the club hasn't really talked about it, but I have heard from several sources that I trust that he's been hurt for the last month or so, so that could be a possible explanation. But I would have to think he'd be looking for a permanent move away at some point, as it's hard to see him getting above 3rd choice at Arsenal in the coming seasons, and he's impressed when given a shot. Have to think he'd be a decent first-choice keeper at most Championship clubs, or even some of the weaker Premiership clubs.

  • Chris
  • ballyanking

      I will add a score from 1-10 with 1 being atrocious and 10 being
    excellent (reflecting where I think we are headed):
    Goalkeeping
    issues: To pretend we don’t have any is somewhat
    myopic. Szcesny, while being among the top keepers in the EPL at age 20,
    is still having problems with his positioning as was shown on Sunday at
    WHL. He didn’t block off Van Der Vart’s angle sufficiently and was too
    far off his line and too near his right hand post,allowing the ball to
    slip past him. The second goal was a combined effort from our sleepy
    defenders and Wojiech’s late dive and his positioning off centre and too
    far to his left post. However, he is certainly up for the big ones as
    he is making more brilliant saves than Almunia or Fabianski ever did in
    their Arsenal careers. Given time, he’ll correct these errors so no
    worry there.

    Score: 7+ and improving

    Defensive
    improvements: The back four is now composed of 4
    new faces! Gone are Vermaelen, Djourou, Koscielny, Sagna, and Miguel. We
    have a neophyte taking over right back Jenkinson, a defensive
    midfielder taking over CB along with our big German and in the left back
    position, Gibbs  supported by another new recruit Santos!

    We have Squillaci or Frimpong as backup for either CB and as far as I
    can tell nobody else with any experience for the fullbacks. God help us
    if one or two more get injured! We are still falling asleep on corners
    but defending freekicks better. We seem to be abandoning the zonal
    marking for man marking but need to smooth out those edges a great deal.
    Perhaps a combination of both tactics might work better where we man
    mark in the box and mark zonally outside of it? I wonder if Song can
    communicate effectively with Mertesacker and if they can do so with
    Gibbs and Jenkinson….this might be a language issue as well as a
    positioning issue. What can AW and his coaches do with a kaleidoscope of
    defensive players,ever changing and unpredictable….pray!

    Score 5 and stable but likely to worsen

    Midfield
    tactics and player solutions: In my opinion this is
    the area of greatest weakness and best potential improvement over the
    short run.

    AOC, Ramsey, Frimpong, Arteta, Benayoun and Arshavin are all talented
    and skillful players. None have the mastery of Cesc or the
    inventiveness of Nasri but they can certainly hold their own when in
    form. Should we be playing 4 midfielders in a W formation like we
    currently are with the DF midfielder being between the back 4 and the
    midfield  or are there better results to be had with a 3 man midfield
    and a 3 man strike force?  Watching Coquelin on Sunday, it was obvious
    that he can bring a great deal of fluidity, pace and transition from
    defense to attack but he is inexperienced, young and needs the mature
    heads around him, as does Frimpong. If we play 4 in the midfield, Ramsey
    and Arteta will have to step up their game and prevent opponents from
    attacking down the wings like the Spuds did with some success. I find
    that we need to see more of Santos, Frimpong, Coquelin and AOC and less
    of Benayoun, Arshavin and Ramsey.

    Score 6 but definitely worsening

    Ideal
    formations both tactically and strategically: Over
    the remainder of October we face very different opponents and will need
    to establish a fluid tactical approach. We have 3 EPL games against
    Sunderland and Stoke which require us to defend bravely and aggressively
    while playing a physically grueling game against hackers and cloggers
    and then we play Chelsea, a team who may be aging but who have very
    powerful and skilled players. We also face Marseille, a team that is in
    top form and filled with skilled players. We will need to play a more
    continental style and formation 4-3-3 perhaps?

    The CC game against Bolton will give us the opportunity to have Ryo,
    Park, AOC, Coquelin, Aneke, Benayoun, Miguel and Fabianski strut their
    stuff and to learn how well these players can perform together from the
    start. Strategically speaking Wenger will have only two goals to achieve
    in October; Take as many points as we can with what we have and avoid
    more injuries. This will also be the time for him to experiment with
    players across the front 2 or 3 and maybe even give Walcott a chance to
    play behind RVP or Chamakh.

    Score 6 and stable but likely to worsen

    Striker
    enhancements and refinements: Here is where we can
    experiment the most as we potentially have 7 fit and healthy
    strikers/attacking midfielders among Gervinho, RVP, Chamakh, Walcott,
    AOC, Ryo, and Park. Our paucity of goals scored continues and while we
    are, as always, obtaining multiple opportunities to score, we show the
    same profligate. over-complicated and parsimonious approach to finishing
    we have displayed since 2006. Gervinho’s poor shooting displayed on
    Sunday is simply another example of what Chamakh,Walcott and on occasion
    RVP have repeatedly been guilty of. Arsene has to begin experimenting
    with AOC, Ryo and Park sooner than later. AOC has played four games and
    scored 2 goals….he needs to be exposed to far more EPL and CL games and
    to learn from experienced strikers like RVP,Chamakh and Gervinho can
    show him. Ryo’s pace rivals Walcott’s and if we play 3 up front,
    combining them on the wings would offer speed, pace and a terrifically
    fast counterattack that slower teams like Chelsea,Stoke and Bolton would
    be hard pressed to handle. Park needs to be introduced into the team at
    some time as does Santos more often. The latter showed that he can be
    an offensive threat as well but we need to know whether he can defend
    better than Gibbs. Chamakh, while highly criticized, is gradually
    building his confidence and my belief is that he’ll pick it up a notch
    the more he plays. Overall, our future success will depend on Walcott,
    Arshavin, Chamakh and Gervinho punching above their collective weights
    in October…an unlikely but possible mission. We also need to find a
    ruthlessness and more attacking options in front of our opponents’ goal
    that are more direct and effective.

    Score 6+ and improving

    Psychological
    and moral strengthening: Here is the crux of the
    issue. Jens Lehman, in his latest Arsenal interview said AW can and will
    be able to manage his charges even in the worst circumstances but the
    lack of an experienced and strong team leader as well as a very fragile
    confidence and morale among the younger players could be the straw that
    breaks the camel’s back.

    Many Gooners feel hard done by with bad officiating, ill luck,
    excessive injuries to key players and poor, inconsistent  performances
    like Sunday in games we could and should have won. These, as someone
    also said, are all distractions from the principle issue which is that
    any great team with a strong spine would shrug off these inconveniences
    and come back harder and stronger. As the old adage goes, when the going
    gets tough the tough get going. We are neither tough nor are we hard.
    This attitude of never surrender and never panic is the thing we
    desperately need to improve on at AFC. Szcesny, Song, Frimpong,
    Coquelin,  AOC and RVP all have this do or die approach to their game.
    Winning a few games, even if we tie or lose another will do us a world
    of good. Winning makes winners and knowing that we can beat the best
    will, in the long run, ensure that we do.

    Score 4- and could get better or worse

    Philosophical
    and operational changes to strengthen the Club: We
    will need to review our compensation rules soon. We will need to
    consider strengthening in January. We will need to start communicating
    more positive PR to the media and the fans. We will need to counter the
    negativism and  dismay that haunt the Emirates and that will come with
    better performances. We will desperately need to review our injury
    situation and take drastic steps to curb this epidemic. If that means
    paying some specialists to figure out what needs to be done to
    strengthen our players then so be it. We need to push for immediate
    adoption of the video and goal-line technology every sport worldwide now
    uses except Football. This will mean battling the dinosaurs in the FA,
    FIFA and EUFA but it is far past due. Perhaps a coalition of EPL,
    LaLiga, Seria A and Ligue 1 teams could form a group that would pressure
    these ostriches to remove their heads from their arses and finally
    institute the needed changes? We need to review the ticketing process
    and prices so that fans don’t feel cheated by rising costs and poor
    results.

    Score 5 and stable

    Managerial
    insights and skills required to redeem AFC: AW
    knows that he has to redevelop a team culture of working for each other
    to win. He must prioritize his players’ tasks, emphasizing the need for
    his defenders to DEFEND first and attack later. He might want to
    reconsider playing a high defensive line and keeping more defenders back
    rather than sending them into the opponent’s box when we have a set
    piece or free kick against them. Wenger needs to really experiment with
    playing his new lads in different positions like Coquelin as a right
    back or Walcott in RVP’s place with Robin behind him or Arshavin in a
    pure attacking central midfielder role, or AOC alongside Ryo on the
    wings etc. He should be considering using Szcesny to help the defenders
    more by playing keep ball between themselves when under pressure. It
    works for Barcelona. Our greatest strengths need to be reinforced, such
    as excellent, accurate passing, better ball control and improved vision
    for distribution of the ball particularly where Ramsey and Arshavin are
    concerned.

    Score 5+ and stable

    Injury
    management and avoidance techniques: I dealt with
    this above a bit but here are the specifics. If other teams can avoid
    injuries to their key players all season long, why can’t we? What are
    the factors that seem to haunt AFC more than any other club (other than
    the Spuds) over the last few seasons. Is it the fact that our team is
    generally younger than their EPL opponents? Is it poor training methods
    and conditioning that is misdirected or overdone? Is it our tendency to
    ruish players back too soon from inury? Is it our tippy-tappy style of
    play that seems to encourage injuries? Is it a perception among our
    opponents that physical harassment of Arsenal gets results when fair
    play won’t? These questions need to be addressed if we are to survive
    and prosper over the next 8 months or so.

    Score 4- and getting worse

    Media and PR
    management changes needed to improve our image: The
    incessant media and fan attacks AFC have suffered through since 2006
    have diminished our image considerably. We were at one time seen as a
    foreign Club with a French manager and few English players. We are now
    seen as a beautiful Football club and advocates of total Football that
    is ¨pretty¨ but ultimately ineffective. The latest version of our club
    is one that is in ¨crisis¨ and has a manager ¨under fire¨ , and who has
    ¨lost the plot¨ or worse still, has lost confidence and is in despair.
    It is high time Gazidis,Wenger and the Board began a concerted and
    ongoing PR and media campaign against such false and unfair character
    assassinations in the media and by our supporters. We need to see
    Arsenal fighting back against the yellow tabloid biased excrement that
    these pundits and ¨journalists¨ pass off as sports news and the
    scurrilous gloomy-doomer vitriol that our so-called fans spread on the
    net. We are too passive, too genteel and far too tolerant of aggressive,
    ignorant critics who take every opportunity to diss the Club, the
    manager and the players. We are going through a bad patch but that is
    all it is….a campaign of positive and assertive, confidence-building PR
    sorties would do all of us a great deal of good.

    Score 3- but likely to improve significantly

    Financial
    planning and long term goal setting: At least in
    this respect, we are very well prepared. However we need to hear what
    long-term goals the Board,Wenger and Gazidis are envisioning and what
    resources they can offer the manager in the future. I don’t mean that
    they should reveal their transfer plans or targets for the January
    window but the fans and the public want to know where we are headed and
    the more the Club can reveal about that, the better. A detailed
    explanation about how we are going to handle the EUFA Fairplay rules and
    regulations and how our rich owners plan to financially and
    managerially support us would be a start.

    Score 8+ and definitely improving

    Solutions to
    apparent and obvious officiating bias: Despite our
    critics saying we are whiners and delusional about supposed officiating
    bias we seem to suffer in almost every game, the reality is that every
    team in the EPL pays the price of bad officiating. Untold Arsenal have
    tracked EPL games and officials, with an emphasis on our own, since last
    season and a number of media types have commented, quite accurately,
    that Arsenal and other Clubs have been significantly disadvantaged by
    bad officiating. One article even claimed that Arsenal could have
    finished 2nd last season had the incorrect calls gone our
    way. Here are some obvious and needed solutions I see being overdue;

    *Institute video replays and goal-line technology as soon as
    possible,

    *Increase the number of EPL officials from 16 to 25 immediately,

    *Institute an FA referee review committee to investigate accusations
    of bias and consistently poor performances,

    *Consider using foreign referees in the EPL, particularly for key
    games and derbies.

    * Undertake an exhaustive, government-sponsored investigation of
    English Football to identify potential criminal and match-fixing
    activities.

    Personally I don’t hold to the conspiracy theories and organized
    anti-Arsenal punishment some of our more imaginative fans claim.
    However, we can’t assume that corruption and organized crime, which is
    present in European Football, has not invaded England’s green shores.

  • TJ_UGA

    why. the. fuck. is. that. so. long?

  • Jamiepatrik

    I dont see it happening to be honest and i think it started with Wenger's ineptitude for the past six years and has been endorsed
    with ridiculous appointments like the pathetic Gazidis and Dick Law and
    perpetual failure of owners to invest in the team.Kroenke's takeover has just
    been the latest disaster to have happened. However, the origin of all this was
    the rigid stubbornness of Wenger and his quite laughable project to prove that
    he could win with inexperienced players. His refusal to build on our 2004 team
    was criminal and subsequent inferior purchases who are still here and can't be
    shifted is down to him alone. All managers make mistakes, but others like
    Ferguson move people out as soon as it becomes evident that they are not good
    enough. Wenger's ego has cost us when bad players' transfer fees and subsequent
    extensions eat up our available funds. However, even with this dross, he has
    singularly failed to address basic shortcomings- how to defend, give 100%
    commitment, not treat supposed inferior teams lightly, playing people out of
    position, not varying tactics, bad substitutions etc. This sort of performance
    should have got him sacked, but the Board were happy charging extortionate
    prices and reaping in Champions League money. So our expectations changed- from
    the best team in Europe in 2004(when we should have won the treble) to trying
    for fourth place. I now believe that as City have changed the landscape of
    football, it's convenient for people to say it's all the Board's fault, but this
    does not excuse the awful mismanagement of our club, chiefly by Wenger, since
    2004. He had built a fantastic legacy in his first eight years here- it's
    unthinkable a man with his ego would simply have allowed the Board to push him
    around since then. It's down to him mainly, e.g. Fabregas and Kroenke confirming
    the former's sale was his decision alone.

  • Homey_Mills

    I wrote many of the same things all summer, and I was roundly criticized.  Now I have a few more people agreeing with me, although not under the circumstances I wanted.

  • Ellulbernard

    America's lack of geographic understanding fascinates me. Then again, I could barely name ten states on a map, so I can't really make any fun of you.

    Our collective looking forward to the January window stinks, coupled with Gazidis saying that Arsenal not reaching the CL next season with only seven games into the season, stinks a bit of desperation. Can't blame us though, we're in a mess.

    Would love to have any of the guys you mentioned, but since all of those guys are key players to their clubs, none look to be leaving midway through the season.

  • Alexinho

    Geography is much more interesting as a study than most people understand.  Every bit as informative as history, but easier to understand for visually-oriented learners.  If I ever have a collection of anything, it will be of maps--have you ever seen a good, old map, and how these places that are called one thing now were called something else one, two hundred years ago?  I could just examine those things for several minutes.

    Back to your regularly scheduled programming--

  • 007JJJ

    While you certainly made your point ,one player you missed while writing this blog .....the one i was interested in was Lansbury ....... what about him ?

  • Homey_Mills

    He's on a season-long loan at West Ham.  I didn't mention the guys out on season-long loans, such as Denilson, Bendtner, Vela, etc.

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