My Mid-Summer Predictions on How the Transfer Window Will Play Out – Part II

By: Homey | June 30th, 2011

Yesterday, I made my predictions for the summer in terms of who might be leaving. Today I’ll focus on what should (in theory) be happier thoughts – players coming in. I’ll take this up in three parts. First, I’ll discuss what the team looks like right now. Second, I’ll give my commentary on what the club should be doing. And third, I’ll give my predictions on what we actually will do.

Let’s start by discussing what sort of team we would put out on the field if there were a match today, and we had all current players available. The starting lineup would probably consist of something like the following: Wojo, Sagna, Vermaelen, Djourou, Clichy, Wilshere, Song, Cesc, Walcott, Nasri, and van Persie. You could argue that Flaps, Koscielny, and/or Arshavin should be starting, but I think my lineup is pretty close to correct. On the bench, you would probably find something like this: Flaps, Koscielny, Eboue, Ramsey, Bendtner, Chamakh, and Arshavin. Therefore, players not even making the bench in this scenario would be: Almunia, Gibbs, Squillaci, Diaby, Denilson, Rosicky, and Vela, not to mention several young players and a few out on loan.

From this perspective, the team doesn’t look all that bad. None of the starters jump out as glaring weaknesses, and the bench offers several solid options as well. So why does it all go so wrong for us? Well the biggest two reasons are pretty obvious. First, and most importantly, we tend to suffer through more than our share of injuries and suspensions. So while guys like Squillaci and Diaby don’t even make the bench in our ideal situation, they’re actually starting many times because the players ahead of them are out. This has been the biggest source of our problems over the last few years. Second, while all of the starters are at least “good,” too many of them lack that star quality that make the great teams great. In my humble view, we have a pretty good left back in Clichy, a pretty good central defender in Djourou, a pretty good (hopefully improving with time) goalie in Wojo, etc. We could use an extra little bit of star quality in the starting lineup, as well as better quality on the bench.

We had certain areas where the lack of depth really left us in a bad spot. With Vermaelen out almost all year, we ended up playing Squillaci a lot, and that hurt us quite a bit. Although Song and Wilshere were available most of the time, we had no quality backup at that spot all season (especially since Ramsey didn’t come back until the very end). We also didn’t have much depth beyond Arshavin at the forward/wing position, and often had to either use Rosicky, or play Bendtner out of position. And finally, although Chamakh was good early in the season, at the end of the season we didn’t seem to have any quality behind RvP.

The solution I was most hopeful about at the start of the window would be something that addressed our need for both depth and star quality. But something that would still be relatively budget-friendly, and thus still realistic. My hope was simply to make two purchases – Falcao and Vertonghen. As I see it, both could be slotted into at least two positions each.

Falcao could perhaps start in the forward/wing position. That would move Walcott to the bench, but would vastly improve our depth at that spot. He is also a natural center forward though, and would be our first choice to back up RvP as well. So we could ship out Bendtner and not really feel the sting at either position. Unfortunately, I think the Falcao train has left the station, because I think he’ll follow his old manager to Chelsea. Maybe if we’d struck before Chelsea signed Villas-Boas, we would have had a chance.

Vertonghen could theoretically still be on our radar screen, although I haven’t heard much about him in the transfer rumors lately. But he looks brilliant from the videos I’ve watched. What I really like the most is his ability to play as a central defender, left back, or defensive midfielder. I would want for us to rotate him in quite a bit at DM, and probably be our first choice off the bench at CD as well. He’d play in probably 2/3 of the matches if he were the first backup at both positions. But I like that he’d add some height and ability to win headers. I’ll admit I didn’t watch any Ajax matches in the last couple of years. And yes, I could be deceived by his amazing YouTube videos. I mean, you could probably piece together a three minute video of me in the 2009 Fort Worth Summer Adult League where I might look like I could play. But at the same time, how often do you see a central defender taking free kicks and actually scoring on a few? This speaks very highly of his skill level. Anyway, if we added Vertonghen, then we’d immediately be pretty well set at two key positions where we were weak last year.

Ok, so now let’s get back to the real world of what we actually will do. That’s not as much fun. I’ll start with the player we’ve heard linked to us the most – Gervinho. I have to think that where there’s this much smoke, there’s probably fire. He fits the description of what Wenger typically goes for – not super expensive, not too old, played in Ligue 1, etc. Add to it the fact that he seems to want to play for Arsenal, and I think we’ll have a deal done on this one soon. And I must admit, there’s some appeal to it. I’m not as excited as I would be about Falcao, but maybe he’ll be just as good.

Next, I think we’ll probably sign Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, or Oxtail, as he’s known around here. This one doesn’t excite me too much in the short term, but he seems to be quality in the long term. He again fits the description of what Wenger typically goes for. In addition, young players like that see Arsenal as a club where they’ll get a lot more chances than at clubs like Man Utd and Liverpool. Seeing as how we’ve beaten those clubs to the signatures of other young talents, I would bet we’ll do it again and sign Oxtail pretty soon too.

Next, I think we’ll sign a central defender. This one is obvious, but I think a lot of fans and pundits are getting this one wrong. It’s way too easy to simply spout out that Arsenal’s problem is on defense and on set pieces, and we need a new CD. I still remember last summer, sitting at my computer and watching that wacky 6-5 win over Legia Warsaw in the preseason. After one of Legia’s goals, the announcer said, “Same old Arsenal, always conceding.” Ok, fine, so we give up too many goals. I’ll agree with that. But let’s try to sort through the solution for a moment.

Last season, we were without Vermaelen almost all year. Koscielny was in his first season with the team, after playing only one a year at a high level before that. Djourou was coming back from injury, and then there was the debacle called Squillaci. Going forward, if you assume we have all of these players healthy, the only thing we really need is another guy to push Squillaci down the depth chart. In other words, I don’t see how a standard £10 or £12 million sort of purchase would necessarily be ahead of Kos, Djourou, or TV5. For me, I’d rather do one of two things here. Either spend a little bit for a guy designated to be our fourth-choice CD, and then spend our other money at other positions. Or go out and spend big bucks on a real thumper – a walk-in, elite player. I’m not sure who comes to mind at the moment – Subotic maybe? But the guys I’ve been hearing about might come in to the club and be sorely mistaken about where they fit into the pecking order.

Samba
Anyway, this section of the blog is supposed to be about predicting what actually will happen. The two names we hear the most are Samba and Cahill. I’d prefer Cahill, but if I had to bet, I’d go with Samba. And that’s simply because it appears he’s cheaper, and if there’s one thing Wenger likes, it’s a “bargain.” I’ve heard some reports that we’re going to buy both, but I don’t understand that a bit. The only way we’d do that is if we made a firm commitment to moving Vermaelen to the left back and letting Clichy go. And even then, it’s hard for me to imagine.

And that brings us nicely back to the left back spot. Yesterday, I predicted that we’d sell Clichy. I’m a bit torn between predicting a Vermaelen move to left back, and predicting a promotion of Gibbs and purchase of a cheap backup. I think I’ll go with the latter. So that would mean we’d get another left back. Of course we can all wish for a big-money replacement like Baines. But we have to keep reminding ourselves that this is Arsenal, and that’s not how we roll. So maybe it’s Emilio Izaguirre from Celtic, or perhaps some unknown “diamond in the rough” from France or somewhere.

But I think that’s about it. Since I predicted that Nasri and Cesc will stay, I don’t think we’ll buy more players at those positions. And we won’t have an additional pile of money to re-invest. But I think the above is my best guess as to how we’ll actually finish our summer purchases: Gervinho, Oxtail, Samba, and a cheap left back. Meh. Doesn’t do a whole lot for me, to be honest. I suppose we’d be a little better off, but not enough to make me believe we’ll win any trophies this year. I’d love to believe the Mata rumors, but I have to keep reminding myself that £13 million is the most we’ve ever spent on one player in club history. I don’t see how a leopard will change his spots so dramatically now.

When you then move on to consider who I predicted to leave (Almunia, Bendtner, Denilson, and Clichy), you’re left with a fairly even swap (at least monetarily). Overall, my scenario would leave us spending a little more than we bring in. So I’m sure that will be sold to all of us suckers as evidence that we’re really trying to compete this year and taking a new approach. But somehow I think those who are stuck with higher ticket prices won’t be all that amused.

Eeyore
Well, now that I’ve given everyone a ray of sunshine, I hope everyone has a great weekend. I’m not sure when our next blog will arrive, or who will write it. Maybe if we ever actually complete a deal, we’ll have something new up. But this blog may have to hold you over until Monday.

——————————————————————–
Behold, the nations are as a drop in a bucket, and are counted as the small dust on the scales. Isaiah 40:15a

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Category: Arsene Wenger, Rants, Transfer News and Player Movement, Transfers

« My Mid-Summer Predictions on How the Transfer Window Will Play Out – Part I | Home | Au Revoir, Gael Clichy »

Alexinho

It's official: Clichy is a Citeh player.
AlexM

I wish him the best.
FredJacob

I WISH HIM ALL WORST
Homey_Mills

We'll get a new blog up later today. I wonder what the fee for Clichy was though. I'm sure we'll find out soon enough. I keep hearing something in the 7m range, but that's unofficial.
Parryglover09

Cahill in the next two weeks providing no other club bids for the centre back. Once again, we’re only able to acquire players if we’re the only club involved. Other than that, there isn’t really much going on. Preseason training is due to start next week and so far, all we’ve managed to do is land one player in the shape of Gervinho… and to my knowledge, that hasn’t been officially announced.People can keep on saying that we’re only a week into the transfer window, but I’m sure I remember Wenger telling us he’d get his business done early. Once again, that appears to be something of a lie. We’re not talking about bolstering the squad this summer are we? We’re talking about bringing in at least 3 first teamers. They’re going to need time to bed in, there is not point in bringing them in in August is there?
Still, we’ve signed Barcelona youth product Bellerin. Thank god for that. I can’t wait to see him leave for a £1million in 5 years time.
Benfica have moved for Nik B, about time too… he’s the greatest player everyone seems to have forgotten. What are his agents doing? Mind you, finding someone £50k a week when they’re the equivalent of a failed graduate must be tough going.
So while Rome is burning, Wenger is sitting there with all the clubs who are actually in poverty waiting for the others to move. The guy is ridiculous…
Still, we should be thankful for a wonderful sunny day. That always excites me. Beautiful sun!
Homey_Mills

The next time we want to complain about a bad decision by the refs, we should remember that it will never, ever be as bad as the blown call in the WWC today in the match between Australia and Equitorial Guinea. Wow. That was unreal. I have no words for it.
JG

Haven't been following the Women's WC at all (save for Brazil, who are awesome). What happened?
Homey_Mills

One of the Equatoguineans literally caught the ball with BOTH hands and HELD it for a second inside her own penalty area, and there was no whistle. Now, it appeared she thought there was an offside flag or something, but the ref never blew a whistle. So if there's no whistle, I have no clue how you can ignore the handball. You thought the Henry handball in the WC qualifier was clear? Or Maradona's? Uh, no. Not close. You have to see the replay of this one. It's beyond words. Fortunately, it didn't cost Australia in the end.
NR

After the henry handball I've seen about 10 handball incidents in the PL that are similar, nowhere near the intent and hand-to-ball movement by maradona (or the similar messi "raise your arm and slap it into the goal" goal against espanyol)
Homey_Mills

I can't spill the beans just yet, but we're working on something that I think will be really cool reading here in the next week or so. Just keep coming back to find out more.
TJ

random thought: I don't get the Rodwell hype.
nico bellic

1st of all Emilio Izaguirre is amazing, would love Wenger to buy him(..wont happen). i side with a 442 concentrated on Theo, Gervinho/ hopefully Myaichi. with RvP deceptively there as the 2nd striker creating goals. its Wengers job to thesedecisions: fabregas/wilshere controlling midfeild doing his long balls and stuff. song/alvares DM. oh and nasri sold if he wants i dont think a replacement is needed anyways. only if cahill is signed to be partnered by djourou, varmaelen should be made the LB. Gibbs will stay 2nd choice RB varmaelen 2nd/back up choice CD yayay :D
Homey_Mills

The Twitterverse seems to think that Gervinho is in London getting his physical completed.
AlexM

I really, really fucking hate the Daily Star. I think you know what I'm referring to; bullshit rumor as always, but this time they crossed the line so far it made me feel like committing a murder-suicide.
Sorry, just needed to get that out of my chest. I'm going to bed now.
TJ

I will rape someone if Nasri goes to Chelsea.
FredJacob

have no fear dude, sure he will end up playing like Torrez
Homey_Mills

I dunno what would be most upsetting - Nasri at Man Utd, City, or Chelsea. It would be troubling no matter what.
TJ

I actually don't hate Man Utd as much as most Gooners do. Now I would be furious if he went to any team, but Chelsea is my least favorite team in the world, tied with Barca. Would you guys rather keep Nasri or Cesc?
Homey_Mills

I'd rather keep Cesc. There really aren't any players out there who could replace him. (And who we might actually be able to buy.) However, there are probably many who could replace Nasri. If we actually bought Mata, for instance, I think that would be just fine in terms of a trade.
TJ

I would go with Cesc, if I knew he was stick around 4-5 more years. But since even if we keep him, the same thing would happen next year, and the year after that, and the year after that. I think Nasri in the Cesc role, and Mata/Hazard outwide in the Nasri role would be the best thing to happen this summer.
Homey_Mills

Well the other thing that makes it difficult to answer is the question of what we'd do with the money if we sold either. If I had full confidence we'd spend all the money from Cesc, then I'd be ok with it. For instance, if we bought Baines plus a central midfielder like Honda, Vidal, etc, then I'd be fine. But I just know our history too well.
TJ

I've thought we should sell: Squizzy, Almunia, Denilson, Bendtner, and Cesc. unfortunately Clichy.

Buy: Winger (Hazard, Gervinho, Mata), CB (Samba, Subotic i wish), ST (Benzema, Falcao, maybe Gervinho if we get Mata as well), LB (Baines is the only one worth buying.)

Baines can be funded by Clichy (10ish) and Denilson (5-8ish) sales. And with Fabregas commanding 45 hopefully, that can land is (Mata 20, Benzema 20).. and then we spend 5 left over+ sales of Almunia, Squizzy, and Bentdner on Samba- we practically break even.

Throw in a Honda or Kagawa or random attacking center mid, and we've only spent 10-15 mill, and gotten some scrait hardasses.
TJ

If you look at it were really just replacing:
Almunia---Shea/Martinez? random old ass guy
Squizzy-Samba and Bartley
Denilson-Frimpong/Coquelin
Bendtner-Benzema/Gervinho
Clichy-Baines
Cesc- Mata, Lansbury, maybe a random midfielder purchases

For 15 million dollars tops... that seems like a pretty good deal in upgrading our depth and overall quality.
Felegy

My next thought is directed @ Alexinho: Why such a Chamakh hater? I really think his struggles were no fault of his own. Granted, the way he often looks away from goal instead of towards it is frustrating at times. I think given more time in the team this would lessen.
He started out the year great, scoring goals and defending well on set pieces. Only to lose his spot to RvP the minute he was back healthy. No wonder the guys confidence was shaken. AW made no attempt to play the two of them together. Chamakh was mishandled by Wenger. Those comments about him being tired halway through the season by Wenger....pr garbage. More starts = more goals when it comes to Chamakh.
Alexinho

Perhaps you're right. We, as fans, have to walk a fine line between patience and frustration, and perhaps I went too-far towards the dark side with regards to Chamakh. He is surely a player that will survive the "exodus," if there ever proves to be one. I will say that towards the end of the season, the side looked much better when he was in the side with van Persie--but that is 100% down to van Persie having to deal with less pressure, and there has got to be a better striker out there (oh, what Eduardo could have been before the injury...) that can be more than just a release-valve. Of course, he will be entering the all-important second-season--he could have a great one.

Ho hum...it's July now. Rumors have shifted from center-half to center-half without sticking around for too long. Haven't heard a peep about Gervinho in at least a week. I think the article I read was from today or yesterday, in which the president/coach/whoever from Southampton? said that there have been no negotiations about Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. Within days of the end of the season, everyone was certain that Denilson and Bendtner were history--they're still here and there're no apparent suitors.

I think it was GunnerBlog that wrote, just before the signing of Carl Jenkinson, that the futures of Fabregas and Nasri have to be sorted out before any moves are made--looks like he was right.
Perry S.

I have to agree. He barely got any time to get accustomed to the EPL for playing his first season in it. The first was great because he was utilized properly, then when RVP came back he was either a very late sub, or played out of position. I trust that Wenger will look at this situation and give him ample opportunities in a position he can flourish in. He has a great deal of skill that can be untapped. Only thing I have to mention about him that he really does need to use this summer improving on is his kicking skills, he has one of the softest kicks on this entire club.
Felegy

Agreed on his finishing skills with his feet. The guy is a beast in the air though, it's like he has rubberbands in his neck! More time starting in the first team with quality distribution to him could make him a leading scorer in the league. As long as he gets a little more aggressive and becomes a bit more selfish he could be a true striker for us.
Felegy

Couple things for people to rip apart. First off, this whole 433 v. 442 debate. I am completely in favor of going back to more of a 442 style formation but utilize more of the diamond shape in the midfield with two strikers playing up top.
By using a more condensed midfield you can play someone like Nasri or Gervinho "out wide", with the option of moving more centrally when the opportunity arises. Runs down the sidelines to play in pointless crosses will still be handled by Sagna or Gibbs/whoever. Fabregas plays at the top of the diamond playing in balls to the likes of RvP and Chamakh. Song plays at the bottom of the diamond supporting the back 4. When we play the 433 it just seems like we have 0 strikers and 6 midfielders.
Alexinho

If Fabregas and Nasri both leave, all tactical plans fall apart. Center-midfield will leap to the top of transfer priorities at a later-than-desired stage. Not to mention the situation at left-back.

Boys, I'm starting to panic.
Felegy

Not sad at the thought of Clichy being sold, especially to ManCity. The Ade and Toure sales treated us pretty well considering. IMO Clichy was responsible for a number of goals this past season. Is it just me or does he always seem to be the defender keeping the would be goal scorer onsides!!?? There were a number of times where he raises his hand, looks at the side official, and yep, Gael you are the one keeping him onside!!! So frustratng. He provides very little to the attack and has been suspect on defense the last two years. Overerrated, sell him while we still can.
Homey_Mills

Well it again comes back to what we do with the money from the Clichy sale, and what players we buy. You're right that we did well in the Ade and Toure sales in the sense that we got good money. But we didn't really replace Ade, and we still had plenty of leftover money from those sales. So if our plan is just to promote Gibbs and pocket the money, then I'm against it. But we'll wait and see.
Felegy

Agreed on using the money but I feel that Clichy has become more of a liability than anything these last two years. Not a huge fan of moving Verms to the left though. I guess we shall see...
Alexinho

I don't know where anyone is getting that idea that TV5 should play on the left.

Losing Clichy would be a logistical disaster. Imagine having to, at this point in the transfer window, have to change focus, and probably break-the-bank for a starting left-back, without having made any signings in the areas we were already seeking to fill?
JG

Well, it looks like Clichy is really going to City. I don't know why, they already have Zabaleta and Kolarov. Anyways, I would have preferred for him to go to PSG, more money and abroad, but now I think Wenger really has to go out and make an LB a priority. Perhaps Baines?
Homey_Mills

I wish it could be Baines. It's hard to predict that though. So the bigger question is this: where are all the commenters today? It's like a ghost town for some reason, compared to how it's been.
AlexM

Forgive us but this is the freaking transfer window period, the most frustrating time of the year for any Gooner; I figured most of us are finally tired from the unfounded rumors coming from everywhere (I know I am). I know where there's smoke there's probably fire, but given how biased the English media is and how negative most of these rumors seem to be, most likely it's just those bullshit "reporters" at Sky Sports lighting a joint and blowing the smoke into our face. And it's not like we can do anything else other than voicing our frustration on the Internet, which is the most terrible form of therapy there is, and which is exactly what I'm doing here. So basically my point is that commenting on rumors is incredibly unproductive, so I'll do what I'm supposed to do: wait for an official transfer announcement. Until then I'm staying put. End of rant.
Squash2034

So simply put, we just don't have the quality to beat the top sides in Europe or in England. I feel like Arsenal are slipping into the A-/B+ level teams in the EPL. Chelsea, Man U and Man City are like Real and Barcelona. Arsenal, Pool and Spurs are like Valencia and Villareal. Might have a good run but not real contenders.
Star quality is certainly absent in the squad. I hope, for Arsene's sake, that we manage to win something this year. Carling Cup will do just fine.
J___V

We beat man utd chelsea & barcelona last season so, simply put, we do have the quality to beat the top sides. Therewere only 2 contenders last season. Man utd & us. Not Chelsea or man city. We blew up horrendously but that wasn't down to quality either. We have flaws, mostly mental but that won't stop us competing. Big reputations or bug money signings don't mean you compete, it's about how you perform on the pitch.
Perry S.

one positive: gervinho deal is pretty much complete, and i'm very happy we're bringing in players who truly have a desire to play at arsenal i.e. gervinho, samba (hopefully), alvarez (hopefully). we need more classy, hard working players like RVP, Verm, Rosicky, etc.

one negative: i get the feeling that denilson has no suitors (read some article that AC was never interested in him, who would be really?) and that a player who has been very outspoken and shown lack of respect may be in our squad in the next campaign. i love how confident he was that he could be moved, but now it looks as though he's a nobody. if he stays, i hope he's sent out on loan just to save us the trouble and get him out of our hair for the time being. who knows, maybe he'll turn out a decent display and we CAN actually sell him in the next window.
Martin

The problem with him is, and continues to be, his wages. We have him WAY too much money, at $55k/week. I would imagine most teams wouldn't give him that even if he were available on a free. So in the abstract, I think he could be a good fit for a team in Spain, where physicality is de-emphasized and possession is king, but he's not good enough for one of the truly big teams in Spain, and his current salary would basically make him the highest-paid player, or one of them, on most of the other teams in La Liga.

So as much as he talks about how he's a "winner" and wants to go somewhere else, I don't see it happening unless he's willing to take a pretty substantial pay cut.

This is also going to be the big roadblock to moving Almunia.
Homey_Mills

Martin, is that $55k/week or £55k/week? I would think $55k/week wouldn't be too high by professional soccer standards.
Martin

£55k
Homey_Mills

Yeah, I'm a little anxious for us to move Denilson on as well. I don't think he'd be good to keep in the dressing room if he's not playing. And it's not good for him to be playing either. But there's still time for something to happen with him too.
Perry S.

I really hope there's a sucker out there who buys into him being Brazilian and therefore good.
Rickey_banks

yeah according to Sky Sports news Man City has bid 11.3 million pounds for clichy and the deal is "practically done". And that Arsenal have contacted Bolton to begin talks about/with Gary Cahill.
Alexinho

Also...as I'm watching the Fox Soccer Report...looks like Clichy's about to make the move to Man City??
Alexinho

To comment on a previous post...here--

I love to talk tactics. I have to admit that I was excited in 09-10 when Arsenal began sporting the 433, but in retrospect, I can't help but feel as if Arsenal jumped on a bandwagon that a lot of teams jumped onto after Barca's 433 won six trophies the previous season. It seemed obvious at the time that 433 teams would naturally have an advantage over 442 teams by operating effectively in four bands rather than three--it's why 442 Tottenham's top-four finish was so remarkable critically--and all the "stylish" teams adopted some form of the 433. In retrospect, I think perhaps if Arsenal stayed unique--or as "unique" as the 442 can be--things might have been different.

That said, I can't see Arsenal's current squad playing in a 442, for a number of reasons.

In a "creator-destroyer" midfield partnership, obviously Fabregas or Nasri can play creator, but who plays destroyer? Lord, I miss Mathieu Flamini. The man who came in his stead was none other than Denilson in Arsenal's last 442 year--08/09--and he played arguably his best season in the shirt. The result was a very disappointing season. Of course, this was not all Denilson's fault, but I don't think Denilson will be a better player next year if he was employed in this role again. The same goes for Diaby, a player who, even one year ago, I thought could be a superstar in that position. Could Wilshere be the man? Maybe, but it's a big risk in my opinion if you commit to the tactic. Finally--okay, sue me--I don't think Song is good enough to play in a two-man midfield. Committing to a destroyer role would benefit his game--that's what he is after all--but even a destroyer needs to be good with the ball at his feet...all the time...and I don't think he is. Without any new players, I fail to see how any two-man tandem in midfield can be anything more than porous or mediocre.

A commitment to the 442, with the current personnel, will guarantee that Walcott and Nasri, when healthy, will spend most of their time on the wing. I don't think this is good for either player. The tactics need to be figured out in such a way to have Nasri in the middle of the park. At the risk of exaggeration, I have to say that though he's dangerous on the left, he can be damn-near unplayable in the middle! Similarly, if Walcott is ever going to be the Henry-esque striker we hope he will be, perhaps he should start now. One of my big criticisms of Wenger is that he takes players proven in one position, and converts them to another--sometimes permanently. Yes, it worked for Henry, but he has got to be the exception, not the rule. Without getting into great detail about the qualities of both of these players, I think that Nasri is best-employed in the middle, and Walcott as a striker (the latter especially could be a long, long narration). I can't see this happening in a 442--who would take their places on the wing? I don't see a renaissance for Rosicky coming this year.

The biggest beneficiary of a switch to the 442 would be Robin van Persie--when healthy. In fact, I would say that a 442 team would be built more around van Persie than around Fabregas--when healthy. Of course, there is--that--caveat, but I also doubt the front 2 in a 442 because I don't believe in Chamakh. I know, he's only been at Arsenal for one season, but I haven't seen ANYTHING from this guy, except that he can start-and-finish games without doing a sniff while van Persie is injured. I don't see how the two are complementary. Chamakh has been alleged to make good runs, but for the life of me I cannot see a world where van Persie is routinely breaking a defense's back with a pass in-behind to a home-free Marouane Chamakh. I just don't buy it.

If you want a 442, you have to change the personnel. Gervinho could definitely be interesting in a 442--probably as that left-winger, but maybe as a forward. You need to find a convincing, water-carrying central-midfielder, and I am just as oblivious as anyone as to who in the world that could possibly be (so rare are the headline-breaking transfer rumors for a next-gen Patrick Vieira these days). This is all not to mention our defense--and you can't have a 442, a 433, or a 1234 without a disciplined defense that knows how to keep its shape, every minute, every game.

My preference, really, is to stick with the 433, but still make these two purchases--Gervinho and that elusive, dominant central-midfielder. Gervinho and Walcott could play as versatile striker/wingers that don't enter the run of play until a jail-break created by a dominant, passing central midfield consisting of Fabregas, Nasri, and a deep-lying van Persie. In this formation, I could even accept Song as the deep-lying midfielder, because he'll have less pressure on him in a three-man midfield. Okay, call me a bandwagoner, but I genuinely think this could work.
Homey_Mills

OK, so I thought I'd be posting this tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, but instead I'm posting before I go to bed on Thursday night. I won't have computer time Friday morning. And then I figured on Friday afternoon, I'd first have to sort through all the new rumors and new bits. Then I'd have to re-write my blog all afternoon. So the easier way is just to fire it out now and be done with it. Perhaps we'll see how wrong my predictions turn out very soon.