My Mid-Summer Predictions on How the Transfer Window Will Play Out – Part I

By: Homey | June 30th, 2011

Well, we’re halfway through the summer, and everything is just as uncertain as it was when the season ended just over a month ago. I keep checking the transfer news and rumors every day, but nothing is official – just endless speculation.

We’ve repeatedly been told from various sources that July 1 is the official start to the transfer season, or at least it’s the start in some countries. However, from what I can piece together, that’s a bunch of nonsense. The Premier League Rulebook, on page 150, states that the English window begins when the regular season ends. And unless you’ve been asleep for the last month, you’ve read reports of transfers in and out of basically every major soccer country in Europe. Bayern Munich completed a deal for Maneul Neuer. Man United recently signed de Gea from Athletico Madrid. Kevin Gameiro signed at PSG from Lorient. I could go on and on to include transfers in Italy and elsewhere.

Ok, so now that I’ve sufficiently shown that the July 1 date is nonsense, the question then turns to what are we doing? And why has nothing happened yet? And will it ever happen this summer? We could perhaps take solace in the fact that perennial big spenders Chelsea, Man City, and Barca have all been quiet thus far as well. So there’s no need for us to hit the panic button just yet. However, those clubs have all shown that they will absolutely spend money, and that it’s a matter of when, not if. With Arsenal, we’re left to wonder if and not when.

Now, it’s possible that while the July 1 date serves no legal restriction, things are just slow because various players and managers are on vacation at the moment. And when they all return, things will get done. I’ve heard this thrown about a few times too. But that still does nothing to bring us peace at this moment. I’m sure there have been plenty of conversations behind the scenes about many transfers in and out, and it’s just a matter of getting things finalized in the next month or so.

With that in mind, let me boldly make my mid-summer predictions. I’m sure that since I’m making a number of predictions, that quite a few of these will be very wrong. Furthermore, we could potentially see how these all turn out within the next couple of days. Then I’ll come back and apologize for how dumb I was. Part I will focus on our current players, and who could be leaving. Part II will focus on who might be coming in.

As far as transfers out are concerned, I predict that we keep both Nasri and Cesc for the upcoming season, but we sell Clichy, Denilson, Bendtner, and Almunia. Let me start with Cesc, since he’s the one driving most of the discussion at the moment. He’s also been listed by the bookies as more likely to leave for Barca than to stay at Arsenal.

The bottom line with Cesc, as I see it, is that Barca simply don’t need him for on-the-field reasons, but we most assuredly do. If they really felt a need to get him, they’d make an appropriate bid, such as what they did for Villa or Ibrahimovic. Our friend Kxevin from the Barcelona Football Blog has stopped by many times to tell us that. He blogged about it last year as well. Now I’m certainly no expert on Barcelona, but it seems pretty likely to me that all of the very public talk about Cesc from their side is aimed at throwing a bone to both the fans and Cesc himself. It’s about bringing back the native son to his boyhood team. I won’t bore you with all that sentimental stuff you’ve read a million times. But why on earth would they want to make a bid for Cesc at his actual value – at a level where Arsenal would actually sell? First, it would gobble up their entire reported transfer kitty for this summer, leaving them no room for other purchases unless they sell players. So that means no Alexis Sanchez, no Rossi, etc. Second, and more importantly, they simply don’t need a player at that position at all. Not only do they have world-class starters, but they also have the likes of Thiago, Dos Santos, Rafa Alcantara, and Sergi Roberto. I think it’s safe to say that they’re set at the central midfield position for a few years to come. Furthermore, they just signed Thiago to a contract extension with a massive buyout clause. Don’t you think that maybe Thiago asked about Cesc before he signed a new deal? Why would he have signed if he knew Cesc was about to come and push him further down the depth chart? None of that makes a bit of sense to me. And finally, I don’t see why Barca are in a position where they need to placate their fans with sentimenal purchases. They’ve won three of the last six Champions League titles. They’ve dominated La Liga for years. They’re perhaps the greatest club team of all time. Do they really need silly transfers to make the fans happy? I would think not.

Nasri
The Nasri situation is a little different and possibly more difficult to sort out. I blogged about it in my debut blog a couple weeks ago. I won’t go into all those details again. I just get an overall sense that he doesn’t really pine for any one club, and he seems to get along pretty well at Arsenal. The one club he’s been linked with the most has been Manchester United. But unless the Glazers have recently found a money printing press or something, I don’t see how they can continue to spend endless money during this window. Did you know that in the last three weeks, they bought three players who all cost more than Arsenal has ever spent on one player? Wrap your head around that for a moment. (Then consider that one or two of those transfers aren’t even expected to start. Wow.) But the bottom line for me is that they’ve already spent good money on a winger, and I just don’t see them coming up with big bucks for Nasri. Now I suppose plenty of other teams could line up for his services, but I haven’t heard too many of those rumors so far. There’s a fresh rumor that Man City (who else?) is getting involved, but I still have my doubts. My hunch is that he just needs to be given a little more sugar at the contract bargaining table. Cooler heads should prevail in this one, and something will hopefully get worked out in the next couple of weeks.

Moving down the list one more level, we come to Clichy. When I originally heard rumors that Liverpool offered something like £5 million, I felt fairly sure he would stay. But now I’m hearing about PSG bidding £13.4 million, and Manchester City getting involved as well. Of course that could be complete rubbish, but I don’t know why a player such as Clichy shouldn’t sell for a decent price to a mega-rich club like Man City or PSG. In other words, unlike the rumors surrounding Nasri and Cesc, the rumors about Clichy sound more believable. Furthermore, I don’t think that Arsenal’s management view him as indespensable as they view the aforementioned others. My sense is that Wenger, just like the fans, would say goodbye to Clichy at the right price. And my guess is that the right price will be coming in the next month. All of which leads us to the natural question regarding what we’ll do at the left back position. My incoming transfer blog should be coming out tomorrow, but my thought for now is that we’ll buy a central defender and shift Vermaelen to left back. I haven’t heard that discussed too much, but I think we’ll promote from within on this one in some way. Perhaps by just promoting Gibbs and buying a cheap left back to be a backup. I think the biggest reason why I’m thinking this way is that it’s been so quiet in terms of rumors about Arsenal buying a left back. The second reason is that if we can find a way of doing something cheaply, we usually do it. And third, I could possibly see the value in shifting Vermaelen to the left side to add another tall, attack-minded player to the back line, even if one of our regular readers is firmly against it. The only thing we don’t know too well is how well he can cross the ball.

Bendtner and Denilson have both publicly stated a desire to go, and we usually don’t hang on to players in that situation – especially when they’re fringe players anyway. However, just today, Denilson’s agent made some statements that he might be open to staying. But if we look to incorporate the likes of Ramsey and Frimpong into the DM rotation in the upcoming season, we’ll have more than enough options that are at least as good as Denilson. I think we’ll still consider Denilson surplus and get what we can for him. Let’s just hope we get something decent in return.

Everything has been rather quiet regarding Almunia, but I have to think he’ll want to go somewhere where he can get some game action. And I don’t see him doing any better than third on the depth chart next season. With his wages being fairly high, it would be in our interest to sell him, but we probably won’t get much at all.

diaby
Regarding all the other possible transfers out, there have been several names thrown about, and it’s hard to nail them all down. The less we hear/read about certain players, the harder it is for pundits to predict what’s going to happen with them. But my sense is that Arshavin, Diaby, Squillaci, Rosicky, and Vela will all stay. I don’t see a huge windfall to be gained from any of them, despite recent rumors that we were offered a pretty good sum for Diaby. And as you will read in my upcoming blog, I don’t see us buying a huge number of players. So we’ll likely look to keep most of these players to shore up the depth of the squad. Diaby, in particular, might be an important backup for Wilshere and Song if we sell Denilson and don’t buy anyone else at that position. Now, I’m not saying that’s what I want, but merely what I predict.

Well, I believe that’s all for Part I. I’m sure I could end up with egg on my face within days or even hours. A couple of new stories popped up even since the time that I started writing this blog last night. But that’s what makes the silly season so fun, right?

Anyway, I’ll plan to be back tomorrow to discuss my predictions in Part II about who we’ll actually purchase.

——————————————————————–
Rejoice in the Lord always. Again I will say, rejoice! Philippians 4:4.

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Category: Arsene Wenger, Cesc Fabregas, Gael Clichy, Manchester United, Rants, Samir Nasri, Transfer News and Player Movement, Transfers

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Bertrand

Wow reading this drivel makes me miss Martin.
Perry S.

on another note, samir nasri is one ugly man.
Homey_Mills

I didn't find the most flattering picture of him, that's for sure. I'm sure with the money he makes, the girls find him attractive though.
Homey_Mills

I've just about finished off "Part II" of my predictions. But I think I'll wait until tomorrow afternoon to post it, since I'm not sure what we'll have to post this weekend. Gotta stretch things out when nothing of substance is happening around here.
biscuit

Nice article. Balanced and rational, in a sea of bullshit that is the silly-season transfer speculation.
Homey_Mills

Thanks. Every so often, even a blind squirrel finds a nut.
Andy Mack

All the transfer examples you've given except DeGea are national transfers. German club to german club, french to french. The Manure one is confusing because (as I understand it) they can only sign a letter of intent, not thefirm contract, so they shouldn't be announcing it.
National transfers are allowed when the season finishes but international transfers are only allowed in the window.
Homey_Mills

Hmm... maybe there is something to that. However, if you look at one of the links I used above, you'll see that Genoa bought a player from the Dutch league. Athletico Madrid bought a player from the Portugese league, while Espanyol bought a player from the Dutch league. Malaga bought players from the German and French leagues. Newcastle bought a player from the French league. Dortmund bought a player from the Belgian league. I could go on and on. Click on the link where I have "Italy" in the blog, and you'll see all of that.
Danish Gooner

I will drive Nasri to City,fucking mercenary.One half decent season and he starts acting up like that super cunt Adebayor,fuck that french wanker !!!!!
Jack Straw

What has Nasri done that has caused you such anger? He is within his rights to not extend his contract. Of course, as an Arsenal fan I wish he had re-signed already and hope that he does in the future, but the level of anger and hostility aimed at one of our own players is embarrassing and sad.

The comparisons between Nasri and Adebayor are a joke. Adebayor openly and repeatedly spoke of his desire to move to other teams, usually during the season. Nasri was asked once about United and basically said, "I'm not sure if their interest is real". He then moved to kill the constant speculation by stating "don't believe what you read in the newspapers". What a bastard.

Nasri is in a strong negotiating position, and anyone in his position would also take steps to ensure they are paid as well as possible. Not just in football, in any field. He knows we only have three options: pay him more than we wish, sell him now, or lose him next summer. None are good options for us, none really hurt him - why wouldn't he use that leverage? There are also three reasons why the Utd and MCFC stories keep running - someone in Nasri's camp is planting those stories in the media to scare Arsenal into offering a larger salary, Nasri won't stop the rumors because they only help his bargaining position (and the fact that he's already tried unsuccesfully once), and newspapers/websites are generating a lot of sales/hits playing on the fickle, impatient majority of Arsenal fans.

Stop believing the hype. Nasri and Cesc will be here to start next season, and you'll all be cheering when they play well.
Homey_Mills

Hmm... well said. I hope you're right (and hope that I'm right too).
Roy

"the question then turns to what are we doing?"

Already sign Carl Jenkinson from Charlton Athletic, in case you forget..
Homey_Mills

Uh, ok. If you want to count that, I suppose you can. I don't see him making a contribution this year, so I ignored it.
Roy

It doesn't matter if you don't see it, maybe Wenger see something in this kid and decided to sign him.

No matter what, it's still a signing.

You should change the title if you "don't see him making a contribution this year", perhaps "
My Mid-Summer Predictions on How the Transfer Window Will Play Out [Carl Jenkinson excluded]– Part I"

LOL..
Homey_Mills

Well, at least we've been linked with Odil Ahmedov from Uzbekistan. So that's a relief to hear.
brenton

Front page news, that. He's on everyone's radar. Big signing. Next Vieira.
brenton

Annoying speculation on my part:

Diaby is back-up to Wilshere, Song and Fabregas. Let's say the rumour that we were offered 10m pounds for him is true. That means in theory that we value a back-up player at 10m pounds. Surely we wouldn't buy a back-up central midfielder for that much. We won't even buy a starting player for that much. Where does Diaby and Wenger's valuation of him stand? What does he bring to the team that is so valuable?
Homey_Mills

I hear you on that completely. I think Fred Jacob is in the minority regarding Diaby. I don't like him at all. (Diaby that is. Fred J. is great.) I have to doubt we were really offered 10m for him.
FredJacob

I rate Diaby more than a back up, if he stays healthy he can contribute better than song or Wisher combined
Perry S.

Thanks for the good laugh my friend.
Benjamin Dockter

Oh man. That's pretty funny. Do you do stand-up?
FredJacob

No when Diaby is healthy he looks much better than Song going forward

and again when healthy he's much better than Wilshere (who at the moment cant score to save his life) offensive

if you guess judging him on last season alone then that's unfair, judge him over the last 3 season he was great, and he should real promising signs this year
Homey_Mills

You mean when he was scoring into his own net against Man Utd? Ha. Sorry, that was too easy.
But really, I just don't like the guy. He does good things at times, but doesn't have the consistency or technical ability that the others have. Just too many errors and lapses of judgment. And furthermore, he's not a real defensive stopper like Song either. So I don't see the value at either end.
Benjamin Dockter

Yep. He definitely has talent, but he's erratic at best. Not as good as Song defensively and not as good as Jack offensively. He's a good backup, but that's about it.
Squash2034

Fred J is to Diaby as Perry is to Arshavin.
Perry S.

Perry likes this comment.
TJ

Homey- "He does good things at times, but doesn't have the consistency or technical ability that the others have. "
Diaby doesn't have consistency, and his constant injuries are at fault for that, (not even Tiger Woods is good when he's hurt all the time). But Diaby has much more technical ability than Denilson, Song, and Wilshere. He has balance and dribbling bested by only Robin the King, Arshavin and Nasri on the team, has a good shot, and is a solid passer. When healthy I'd say Diaby is on par with Wilshere, but unfortunately he's never healthy for more than 2 games at a time.
Homey_Mills

Ok, well obviously Diaby has his supporters out there. I feel comfortable in saying that I'm in the majority on this issue though. Not that it makes me right, but at least I don't feel like an idiot on this one.
What I see from Diaby is something an ability to dribble past defenders and then give the ball away in traffic, rather than making that final, decisive pass or shot.
TJ

If there's one thing Diaby does have to work out, I don't think it's really the final ball, it's his somewhat lethargy in our counter attack build up sometime, just holds the ball a little much until the attack is dead then Denilson's it 5 yards sideways. When he plays his final ball, i feel it's fairly good, just too many times he kills attacks by too much dribbling, where as Jack plays fast but definitely needs to find that finishing quality to his blazing runs. I like them both equal, and think they both offer alot to the team when healthy.
brenton

Nasri to City is getting a lot of attention. I think his ego is big enough that he'll want the wages that they can offer.
FredJacob

hope he goes and flop like Ade, if Nasri stays i really wont like him because he has no class, when Gallas sign with Spurs he came out and said he will never sign for a rival but he still doing the same thing a year later asshole
Perry S.

1. you are jumping to conclusions, he has not stated anything about his desire to play elsewhere. i do think he is more a mercenary that we would prefer, but there are many very GOOD players out there that are the same, and as a manager you must learn to deal with all the contrasting personalities on your team, unless they are spreading cancer in the locker room (i.e Ade).

2. you are wishing bad against him for holding out for some more $$. yes its not what we expected from him, as you wanted to believe that since AW has helped him along, he'd take the offer he's receiving, but you cannot down someone for trying to negotiate his contract to its full potential. blame his agent for that, thats usually who handles these affairs. "samir, i guarantee you if we hold out, arsenal will sign you up for more $$, just have some patience and let me do the talking to the media and arsenal." it typically goes like that, a good university mate is a pro agent.

so in a nutshell, i would say hold your anger until you know what truly takes place, and i have a feeling its going to be nasri putting the pen to the paper as a gunner, as i firmly believe he wants to be on a club where he can be the star.
FredJacob

Nah i fedup with all
these douchbag players trying to hold the team to ransom, and you have to blame
the players because the condone there agents putting them in the shopping
window
Homey_Mills

Well said. I'll add just one other thing. We often criticize players for being mercenaries when they want to leave us for "bigger" clubs. But we don't seem to mind when the likes of Gervinho, Samba, Cahill, Oxtail, etc want to come play for us. Couldn't they be considered mercenaries by fans of their clubs too? Of course. This is simply the way it is now. It's business. Perhaps some of us would play for half as much for Arsenal as we would for another club, but that's because we're fans of Arsenal. But the players in this age simply don't see it that way. I really can't blame Nasri or have bad feelings about him at all. I would only blame Wenger and the board for not doing more to keep him.
FredJacob

In the past five years home many star players have we hijack from clubs, let me think am none. unless you calling Sqizz and Kosceiny stars, Wenger always move with class Bordeaux didn't want to sell us Chamahk, what we did wait till his contract expired and he left, he didn't hold his club to ransom and i sure they didn't mind if he had stayed. If Nasri wanna leave am cool with that even Cesc am cool but dont be a jack about things

and personally i don't even want the Gervinho and the Samba and the Cahills it all you fans trying to manage, and forcing Wenger hand

Just as how Barca fans forcing Barca to buy Cesc, you'll forcing Wenger to buy stars players from other clubs and turning us in vipers like the Man city and Barcelona of the World
Homey_Mills

I think we have to get used to players having "no class" in this day and age. Top players are going to demand top wages. Of course clubs like Man City are inflating the market greatly. If the reports are true that City will offer Nasri something like double what he would get from Arsenal, should any of us blame him? Would we do differently in the same position?
If we want to be a top club, then we need top players. And top players cost money. Pretty simple. So we either spend money like a top club, or we don't.
Homey_Mills

And of course that Nasri/City story came out after I wrote 90% of my blog last night. So I just tossed in a minor tweak this morning and ran my prediction anyway.
brenton

Front page of ESPN Soccernet: City in for Nasri, Clichy, with Cesc almost certain to leave... Denilson could stay.
I know it's all speculation, but that is just horrible to read.
Homey_Mills

If we sell Nasri, Clichy, and Cesc, there is absolutely, positively, no way that we'll be net purchasers during this window. In fact, we'll probably have at least 25m pounds left over. There will be some serious screaming from lots of fans if that happens. We shall see.
Zadster

I would be one of those screaming fans. I wouldn't expect Wenger to bid for Neymar, but Arsenal need depth - I think that's a key reason why the team performs poorly at ends of seasons. Teams like ManU and Chelsea do a good job of rotating players of good quality throughout the season into their starting lineups to keep their better players fresh in April and May. If we sell Nasri, Clichy, Cesc, Bendtner, Denilson and Diaby (hopefully for 10M), we would have no quality proven depth. Further, lack of depth leaves us even more vulnerable to injuries to key players.

Also, I don't know how well fans would take it if they banked 25M in the transfer market AND raised ticket prices AND were again unable to win a meaningful trophy.
JG

It could be worse. We could be Spurs fans.
FredJacob

hell no i rather shot myself
JG

Barca buying Cesc would be nothing more than a vanity buy, but if the last couple of years have taught us anything, it's that in Barca there are a lot of vain people.
Re: Nasri. I don't know why, but I think Ferguson wants to buy Nasri not necessarily for the sporting reason (although he would be a good buy), but also because he wants to weaken us. Take one of our best players, laughing all the way back home while we're struggling, frustrated in trying to find an adequate replacement. The bastard.
Homey_Mills

We might be just flattering ourselves if we think Ferguson is concerned about weakening us. We haven't won a thing in many years. I'm sure Man Utd is much more concerned with Man City and Chelsea - and rightfully so.
Gigi_man

Frustrating.
I really thought AW and the board had learned a lesson.
I guess the stubborness is bigger than the common sense.
One thing is for sure, if they do nothing or very little, like bringing a 17 year old to promise trophies in 7 years, only to find out someone will offer big bucks and trophies elsewhere and we be left out with nothing...I will be calling for AWs head..and maybe some of the board's too!
Homey_Mills

Well again, these are merely predictions from one guy, and not facts at all. So we'll see how it all ends up. But yeah, I'm with you in terms of frustration. If we end the window without much positive action, you'll be reading the mother of all rants from me.
Gigi_man

Yeah I know. But I really look forward to your mother of all rants lol!
Rico

I would like both Fabregas and Nasri to stay, however if I had to chose between them, I'd think I would give Nasri the edge. He seemed more focused on Arsenal.
Yourselves? which would you prefer?
FredJacob

If Nasri does want to sign a new contract, i would force him, but i would let him play this season and not be afraid to losing him on a free transfer since the money should not bother us since we are such a financial stable club. and we don't have to worry about him not playing, because he will put himself in the shop window, which can work to our benefit because he would be playing really hard. An if we win a tittle i sure he would not hesitate to sign on the dotted line
Perry S.

I'm very happy you don't manage this club, and hopefully no one's finances.
Homey_Mills

Well of course Cesc is much more difficult to replace, and a better player overall. I understand being upset with him, since he clearly wants to be somewhere else. But I'm just answering from a strictly on-the-field standpoint.
Rico

I know what you mean, I wasn't saying Nasri is the better of the players, I was meaning strictly at this point in time.
Keep Cesc when his heart is with Barca or Keep Nasri who just wants a 'little more sugar at the contract'
Benjamin Dockter

Boo. Too depressing, but probably more true than those of us hoping to clear out the trash and bring in a bunch of talented newbies. At least Arsenal will be unstoppable in the world of FIFA12 when it comes out because I can buy and sell to my hearts delight.
Martin

"clear out the trash and bring in a bunch of talented newbies"

I assume you're talking about what's happened to the blog over the last month?
Benjamin Dockter

ZING!
Homey_Mills

Sorry to be depressing. You probably won't want to read tomorrow's edition either. Ha. But I was just trying to be real. And frankly, I thought by predicting that Nasri and Cesc will stay, I wasn't being depressing at all.
Benjamin Dockter

Having Cesc/Nasri stay would indeed be a good thing. Losing two of our best players over the summer would be hardcore crappy. I was referring to us more than likely having all the same crappy players that screwed us last year sticking around, only bringing in one or two decent players and no one really exciting. If no one comes in with offers for our underachievers, I can't see Wenger letting them go on the cheap. We'll probably have to loan them out and hope they do well enough to be sold on next year. Didn't work for Traore this year though.