

Season Preview Q&A
By: Homey | August 10th, 2011Well folks, it’s about that time again. Time for some real action that actually counts. I’m not sure if the team is completely settled and ready, but hopefully we’ll do enough to get past Newcastle and Udinese while things are getting sorted out. Anyway, here are some questions I posed to the blogging team, with answers from three of us. I think Brenton is out of pocket at the moment, and I wouldn’t be able to post his answers until Thursday evening due to my work, and by then we’ll need to preview Newcastle… Anyway, sorry for any logistical issues. He’ll probably post his thoughts as a comment below.
[NOTE: These answers were written at various times over the last couple of days. Obviously, the Cesc-Barca stuff is heating up again, and of course we're keeping up with it. But some of these answers were written before the most recent reports.]
1) Where you see Arsenal finishing in the table this year, and who do you have winning the league?
JG: 1a. Frankly, the lack of any real resolution to our team woes this summer has it looking more likely that we won’t win the EPL this season. Now, it’s still possible that, just like in 09-10, we’ll make an unannounced title challenge and be in the running by January, but we all know what’s going to happen after that: we’ll get a couple of injuries to our key players, Wenger will refuse to invest in January, we’ll collapse by mid-spring, lather, rinse, repeat. IF we can add some necessary reinforcements and some changes to our defensive play, and there’s still time for that, then I can say we might have a shot. But if not, then I think we’re going to struggle to be in the CL spots, now that there’s a Big Six involved. I say we finish 4th yet again.
1b. So, so many contenders. The Big Six, on their day, can all realistically push for the title- the question is, which one of them can go above and beyond and win it? Because of their depth, I think United, Chelsea, and City will be nearer to the top than Arsenal (thin squad, mediocre second string), Liverpool (Average back 4 and midfield, still finding their feet after crashing down for the last 2 years), and Spurs (they’re Spurs, too many injuries). As for the other three, Chelsea are aging and having missed out on Pastore, have failed to bring a fresh face to their aging midfield (although Romeu and McEachran look promising). City are too conservative, considering the players they have at their disposal (plus, Clichy is their left back). That’s why, as much as I hate to say it, I think United are going to win it again this year. They found a suitable replacement for VdS with De Gea, they have a big number of really promising defenders (Smalling, Rafael, Fabio, Jones), that will probably render any defensive crisis moot, Nani/Rooney/Pea look to have even better seasons, and, more recently, are about to have a Wilshere-type breakout in Cleverley. If they keep playing in their usual ruthless style, then we’ll probably see United win #20 come May.
Homey: I think we’ll end up in 4th again, with the same three teams finishing ahead of us. I do think we’ll finish ahead of Liverpool and Spurs though, so I hope nobody thinks I’m the biggest pessimist out there. I still think our overall quality is better than that of Liverpool, and I’m expecting a big year from our attacking players like Gervinho, RvP, and Walcott. But I think we’ll be closer to 6th than 1st at the end.
As far as the league goes, I’m actually going to go with Man City here. At some point a team with that much money invested in it ought to win something, right? There are only two major worries for me – one is that their personalities will disrupt things (such as Tevez), and two is that they play too defensively and will have too many draws. Still, I like the Aguero signing, and their depth is great. And I think they have enough confidence now to believe they should win the title. I don’t know that Man Utd really got better since last season, with the retirements of a couple key players. And Chelsea has surprisingly done little this summer. Maybe they’ll make a couple late additions and really make a run this year.
Darren: It’s such a difficult question to answer at this stage because we don’t even know what our starting XI will be. If we keep Cesc and Nasri and add a defender, I could make an argument to challenge for the title. If no defender come in, Cesc and Nasri leave without being replaced I could see us being in a dog fight for 4-6 with Liverpool and Sp*rs.
As for winning the league, it’s hard to look past Manchester United. Chelsea need a creative midfielder to have the chance to win the league, and I don’t believe City are good enough yet.
2) Is this the year that we end our trophy drought?
JG: This is the year we damn well better end our trophy drought, but the chances of it are slim. I just don’t see us pushing for the title this year. Barring a lucky draw and a miracle, we’re likely to finish in the CL Round of 16 or Quarterfinals. So I think any realistic chance of us winning a trophy will come from the domestic cups. Last year we saw Wenger give greater importance to the cups and fielded stronger sides, which saw us make the Carling Cup final and the FA Cup quarterfinal. If he does the same, then, with the luck of the draw by our side, we CAN win either the Carling or the FA cup this season. We sure as hell need it.
Homey: Who’s writing these ridiculous questions anyway? Oh yeah, I am. Ha. Anyway, no I don’t think the trophy drought ends. We’re simply not good enough or deep enough to really make a run at this point. The best chance is to load up on the Carling Cup and try to really go after that one. In the FA Cup, we’d need a lot of luck in who we play and where we play them.
Darren: Depends, is Fabregas going to stick around, and do we get the defensive reinforcement we need?
3) What do you expect to see during the remainder of the summer transfer window?
JG: Well, the window ends at the end of the month, but the season starts this weekend. Oxencart-Chamberpot has signed, which will likely end our hunt for Joel Campbell and will give us more depth at the wings, especially now Ryozilla has been granted a work permit. I also (would like to) think that we’re going to sign one more center back, given how Bartley has been loaned out again, and Wenger must surely not think Squillaci will be a injury and suspension away from starting for us. So I think he will go out and sign a CB, likely at the very end of the window (probably Mertesacker). As for departures, I think either one of Cesc or Nasri will leave. It’s looking like it’s going to be Nasri, seeing as how Citah are going to come up with 28 million for him, which frankly I think is a fantastic price for a player who has only had one good half-season of football. As for Cesc, I think it’s clear that Pretentious Dou- err, I mean Barcelona only view him as a political buy and aren’t willing to meet a (conservative) market price, and their annoying media campaign has only made them look worse in the light of public opinion. So, whether he likes it or not, I think Cesc stays this season.
Homey: I think Bendtner, Nasri, and Eboue will be sold, and Almunia and Vela loaned out. I feel sure we’ll add another central defender, and right now I’d go with Mertesacker from what I’m reading. I’ll try to be as optimistic as possible here, and say that if we sell Nasri, we make a late charge to get Mata, and get that deal done. Oh, and we’ll probably get the Campbell deal completed too, but I doubt he’ll make much of an impact this season. So I’ll say three new arrivals, five departures, and Fabregas sticking around. Still, that will leave a big hole at left and right back, in my humble view. But I think we’ve gone over that issue before.
Darren: More rumours, Nasri sold, Fabregas sticks around and Jagielka comes in to help the defense. Yes, I can dream.
4) Is there a young player you expect to have a breakout season?
JG: If things go his way, I think Frimpong will have a good season this year. Think about it: Denilson is gone (for now). Lansbury seems closer to leaving than staying. Diaby has one dees game, and is then injured for the next 5 years. Wilshere and Ramsey have been gradually moving up the midfield, especially now that Cesc is likely to leave. That leaves Song and Frimpong as the other two guys for the DM position. Given how Song likes getting sent off and our general injury record with our midfielders (Wilshere right now is injured for who knows how long and Ramsey could pick up knocks here or there), it’s possible Frimpong will feature for a considerable amount of time this season. He’s been composed and decent during pre-season, so that automatically makes him better than Denilson. And Eastmond, for that matter.
Homey: I think it has to be Ramsey, doesn’t it? I think he has the desire and quality to make a step up. But he also should get the playing time as well. During the times that Song is out, I think Wenger will prefer Ramsey in the lineup over Frimpong. I wouldn’t say Ramsey is a true defensive midfielder in the Song mold, but it will be an effort to get our best players on the field. So with Ramsey being able to fill in at any of the central midfield positions, he’ll play a lot. I like his future with the club.
Darren: Aaron Ramsey is my pick.
5) On a scale of 1 to 10, what’s your level of satisfaction with the way things are going at Arsenal right now, from top to bottom?
JG: Before Oxtail’s signing, I originally was thinking along the lines of 2-3. The club seemed out of touch, we were lacking in reinforcements, and it looked like we were going to lose Nasri and Cesc and only bring in Gervinho. But how things changed. Basically, I see Oxtail’s move as a sign of intent from the club, and that makes me very optimistic about us getting a new centerback soon. We might still lose Nasri or Cesc, but who knows, maybe Wenger WILL go out and get Mata as an adequate replacement. If these things happen, I’d be happier and would be rating the club at a 6-7.
Homey: Well I’ve certainly made my feelings known about that. I’ll go with a five here. I’m not happy with the manager and what’s he’s been doing, of course. However, if and when he does retire or get replaced, at least the club is in a strong position to move forward. Perhaps if we go another season without a title, that will happen next summer. I don’t think we’re miles away from the top, if we’d just spend wisely and aggressively in a few areas.
Darren: It’s such a vague question, but I’ll have to go with 6. Our starting XI even without Fabregas and Nasri is still very good, and the nice thing with young players is that they generally always get better with age. There is plenty of unrest in Arsenal World, but we need to remember we are still a very good club, and the additions this year have made us better already.
6) Who do you project as this year’s team MVP?
JG: IF he stays fit, Robin van Persie. The man proved to us in the second half of last season that when he’s fit, he’s probably the deadliest all-around forward in the EPL. If he can bang them in all season long, then I’ll feel much better about our chances. If not, other contenders include Gervinho, Wilshere, or Sagna.
Homey: I’m going to think positively about RvP and say he stays fit and produces this season. Even last year, you could argue he was our top player, despite the limited action he got. His form was simply terrific.
Darren: Robin Van Persie.
7) Who do you expect to be our biggest disappointment this season?
JG: Thomas Vermaelen. Look, I know he is our best defender and rightly has become a fan favorite among us Gunners. But take a look at the comments regarding TV5 last season- he was practically canonized by Arsenal fans. Which, considering Squillaci started a considerable number of games for us last season, was understandable. But he isn’t perfect, and I think we’re going to get kind of a rude awakening in that respect this season when he inevitably makes a mistake. He has hardly any experience with our current CB- he mostly played with Gallas or Sol in 09/10, and played with Koscielny for, like, 2 games before getting injured. So don’t expect Vermaelen to be Maldini or Lucio this season- he’s going to have hiccups, he’s probably going to have some trouble early on when playing with Kos/Djourou/Hopefully our incoming new CB, but at the very least he’ll be dees.
Homey: Well again, I would say Wenger, but I already stated that one at length. After all, the question didn’t say which player would be the biggest disappointment. Anyway, I’ll go with Cesc on this one. I think he sticks around, but has a combination of injuries and poor form (by his standards). He’ll still be a quality player, but not the real dynamic engine in midfield we want. And by next summer, I think he’ll finally be off to Barca.
Darren: Jack Wilshere and/or Theo Walcott. Jack because he had such a great first year, he will be hard-pressed to equal our expectations even with Fabregas around. Without Fabregas, more pressure will be on him, and that’s tough for a young teenager.
Theo because we finally have more pace in the squad with Gervinho and to a lesser impact, Ryo and Chamberlain. If we keep Nasri, Theo will be competing against Nasri, Gervinho, Arshavin, Ryo and Chamberlain for time, and he is already starting the season injured.
8 ) What will we be talking about next summer?
JG: “Holy crap! HOW did Arsenal manage to win the CL with 8 injuries to first-team players and Cesc Fabregas suspended? With a 2-0 victory over Barcelona, no less!”
In all seriousness, it will likely be “Can Wenger survive the summer?” “Why are people wondering if Wenger will survive the summer?” “Which centerback/left back/center midfielder/attacking midfielder/center back/forward will Arsenal sign?” “Will Cesc leave? Will Nasri leave? Will Pat Rice leave?”
Homey: Well I think the questions will remain about the same, but I think more people will be on the Homey train regarding Wenger at that point.
Darren: How Wenger finally brings us a trophy and how Homey needs to eat crow for doubting him.
And now finally, here is a composite table from the three of us, taken by averaging our predictions together:
1) Man Utd
2) Man City
3) Chelsea
4) Arsenal
5) Liverpool
6) Spurs
7) Everton
8 ) Sunderland
9) Fulham
10) Bolton
11) Stoke
12) Newcastle
13) Aston Villa
14) West Brom
15) tie – Wolves
15) tie – Blackburn
17) QPR
18) Swansea
19) Wigan
20) Norwich
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